Where do you think Tesla's FSD will be 12 months from now (April 2020)?

[Daniel in SD]

L4 is massively challenging because of regulatory requirements. So I fear we're going to be stuck in L2 limbo for a really long time.

What do you mean by this? That it has to be safe? Waymo has permission to operate L4 (without a safety driver) in both Arizona and California. They're not doing it because their system isn't safe enough.

 

[dipper]

If & when actual FSD shows up - you won't be able to buy it for $30k, let alone $3k.

Best is to look at what is available and what is likely in the next 12 months and see if it is worth it. Some of the competitors are charging 1,500 just for auto parking ! For $3k, you can get ….
- Freeway NOA (available)
- Enhanced Summon (in ~ 2months)
- City NOA (in ~ 12 months)

Sounds like you have a better investment plan than your 401k. You should use your 401k, buy as many Tesla as you can with FSD. In 12 months, you can resell for profit more than $30k for each car.

 

[EVNow]

Sounds like you have a better investment plan than your 401k. You should use your 401k, buy as many Tesla as you can with FSD. In 12 months, you can resell for profit more than $30k for each car.

You are making a rookie mistake. FC <> real FSD.

 

[diplomat33]

My prediction is that Tesla will be L2 on the highway and city NoA will never be released. My hope is that they're able to at least develop some sort of limited L3 for interstates.

Is your prediction for 12 months from now or forever? Even in 12 months, I would be very surprised if Tesla does not release "City NOA" in some form. After all, we know that Tesla has already been running a piece of "City NOA" in shadow mode for a few months now. I am referring to "traffic light and stop sign response" which Tesla has confirmed is in shadow mode on our cars right now. And the feature is promised for later this year. Now, there could be delays of course. But with one piece already in shadow mode now, and the feature scheduled to be released later this year, I'd be surprised if Tesla was not able to release "City NOA" in some form at least in the next 12 months.

 

[jerry33]

The motor connected to the steering rack is so strong most people would have a lot of trouble overpowering it. Think about it, it's powerful enough to turn the wheels while the car is sitting still. Try turning the wheel of a 4000lb car without the engine on and add to that the steering ratio is quite a bit higher on a Model 3 than the average car and add to that the steering motor is stronger than the bare minimum needed.

Strictly speaking it's the gearing of the motor rather than the power, not that it makes any practical difference. The reason this is an issue is because the Tesla (and most other cars too) doesn't have centre point steering where the Camber and Steering Axis Inclination (SAI) angles intersect at the road surface. This means turning the wheels actually lifts 1/4 of the car. (The angles intersect below the road surface to give straight line stability at low speeds). That said, overpowering the weight of the car if the power steering goes out is nothing compared to the force necessary to brake the car if the power brakes go out (had this happen in a previous car--had to drive several hundred miles that way).

 

[Daniel in SD]

Strictly speaking it's the gearing of the motor rather than the power, not that it makes any practical difference. The reason this is an issue is because the Tesla (and most other cars too) doesn't have centre point steering where the Camber and Steering Axis Inclination (SAI) angles intersect at the road surface. This means turning the wheels actually lifts 1/4 of the car. (The angles intersect below the road surface to give straight line stability at low speeds). That said, overpowering the weight of the car if the power steering goes out is nothing compared to the force necessary to brake the car if the power brakes go out (had this happen in a previous car--had to drive several hundred miles that way).

So, from Bosch's electric power steering product page they say their system which has a servo unit on a second pinion (like the Model 3 system) can exert about 9kN or about 2000lbs of force on the steering rack.
The steering knuckle is 4 inches from the center of the wheel.
2000lbs*4inches = 666lb-ft of torque
The Model 3 steering ratio is 10.3:1, so 65lb-ft of torque at the steering wheel.
The Model 3 steering wheel radius is 7 inches so that's 111lbs of force at the edge of the steering wheel. Obviously if you got your body in the right position most people could do that but I don't think it's something that most people are going to be able to do from a standard driving position.

 

[Daniel in SD]

You are making a rookie mistake. FC <> real FSD.

Obviously you have to hold for another 6 months. robotaxis = = real FSD.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Is your prediction for 12 months from now or forever? Even in 12 months, I would be very surprised if Tesla does not release "City NOA" in some form. After all, we know that Tesla has already been running a piece of "City NOA" in shadow mode for a few months now. I am referring to "traffic light and stop sign response" which Tesla has confirmed is in shadow mode on our cars right now. And the feature is promised for later this year. Now, there could be delays of course. But with one piece already in shadow mode now, and the feature scheduled to be released later this year, I'd be surprised if Tesla was not able to release "City NOA" in some form at least in the next 12 months.

I'm leaning towards never. I just don't see how they can survive the "My Tesla ran a stop sign and hit someone" stories. I see it as very different from people playing bumper cars on the highway with semis, firetrucks, barrels, and jersey barriers.
The suspense is killing me though!

 

[diplomat33]

I'm leaning towards never. I just don't see how they can survive the "My Tesla ran a stop sign and hit someone" stories. I see it as very different from people playing bumper cars on the highway with semis, firetrucks, barrels, and jersey barriers.
The suspense is killing me though!

Well, I am clearly more optimistic than you. I definitely think that Tesla will release "City NOA" at some point.

Don't be so doubting. Tesla will get it to work.

 

[jerry33]

So, from Bosch's electric power steering product page they say their system which has a servo unit on a second pinion (like the Model 3 system) can exert about 9kN or about 2000lbs of force on the steering rack.
The steering knuckle is 4 inches from the center of the wheel.
2000lbs*4inches = 666lb-ft of torque
The Model 3 steering ratio is 10.3:1, so 65lb-ft of torque at the steering wheel.
The Model 3 steering wheel radius is 7 inches so that's 111lbs of force at the edge of the steering wheel. Obviously if you got your body in the right position most people could do that but I don't think it's something that most people are going to be able to do from a standard driving position.
View attachment 434984

It's possible. I had a loaner S that lost it's power steering and I was able to turn it--not that easily, but far easier than the force I had to use with the loss of power brakes. I'm not particularly strong either.

 

[jerry33]

I'm leaning towards never. I just don't see how they can survive the "My Tesla ran a stop sign and hit someone" stories. I see it as very different from people playing bumper cars on the highway with semis, firetrucks, barrels, and jersey barriers.
The suspense is killing me though!

You mean like the last one where AP wasn't even engaged in that loaner car? Listening to the FUD that's spewed is non-helpful.

 

[iqless]

Anyone voting the top 3 options is living in fantasy land.

Regardless of what Elon Musk's personal Tesla can do, I predict that by April 2020, the only thing FSD Tesla's will have (on top of what we have today) will be the ability to stop at stoplights & stop signs and some unnecessary version of enhanced summon that can't do much.

If I could look into April 2020 right now and saw that FSD Tesla's could do stuff like taking right or left turns at intersections, or being able to keep going by themselves after taking highway exits (instead of having to stop at the end of the exit), I would be positively, absolutely, completely shocked.

If I could bet, I would bet half of my life savings on a Tesla not being able to drive everywhere on its own (regardless of regulation status) in the year 2025.

 

[diplomat33]

Regardless of what Elon Musk's personal Tesla can do, I predict that by April 2020, the only thing FSD Tesla's will have (on top of what we have today) will be the ability to stop at stoplights & stop signs and some unnecessary version of enhanced summon that can't do much.

For you to be right, Tesla would have to make virtually no progress in the next 8 months from where they are right now. I highly doubt that. I mean, it is highly unlikely that Tesla will release enhanced summon and traffic light stopping say in Sept and then stall completely and not make any progress at all for the next 8 months after that.

If I could look into April 2020 right now and saw that FSD Tesla's could do stuff like taking right or left turns at intersections, or being able to keep going by themselves after taking highway exits (instead of having to stop at the end of the exit), I would be positively, absolutely, completely shocked.

Tesla will almost certainly have both of those features released by April 2020. I would be shocked if they didn't.

 

[Big Dog]

Well, I am clearly more optimistic than you. I definitely think that Tesla will release "City NOA" at some point.

Don't be so doubting. Tesla will get it to work.

I agree with "some point"; eventually, in our great-great-great grandkids lifetimes, we'll have Jestons like cruisers. But the question becomes, will "some point" be soon enough for our our current cars Ver.1, or will we be in Model 3 ver.3?

 

[iqless]

For you to be right, Tesla would have to make virtually no progress in the next 8 months from where they are right now. I highly doubt that. I mean, it is highly unlikely that Tesla will release enhanced summon and traffic light stopping say in Sept and then stall completely and not make any progress at all for the next 8 months after that.

I'm not sure why you're saying that would represent zero progress - right now Tesla doesn't have light & sign stopping and enhanced summon. It really doesn't matter to me what stage Tesla is at in their test vehicles or betas etc. right now. When they put those features in, that will be a huge amount of progress. Which will probably be followed by no progress (in terms of new added features - I expect them to improve existing features) for a long time.

Tesla will almost certainly have both of those features released by April 2020. I would be shocked if they didn't.

From 2016 to right now (August 2019), the only 2 features that have been added to Autopilot is the system being able to decide by itself (poorly in a lot of cases, I hear) to change lanes, and the system being able to very slowly follow exits until the end of the exit. I am not entirely sure but I think it's possible that AP2 - 2.5 - 3.0 are still unable to replicate some AP1 features from AP1 cars from 2015. (Correct me if I am wrong on that, I am not sure)

That is a long time and not a lot of improvement. I know the stuff with MobilEye etc etc. but I am commenting on actual sets of features for the car. I had a 2015 85D with AP1. If I got a Tesla with FSD right now, literally the only additional things it would be able to do would be to change lanes without input and taking exits. Seriously. That is 4 years of improvement. That people don't seem to even like and use very much.

Stopping at stoplights plus enhanced summon then, seems to me, would be a massive feature add for Tesla, considering the hilarious rate of AP feature adds so far. If they are able to add that sometime this year, I would fully expect them to add nothing for a long time in the future. Even though I definitely don't keep up with all the tech stuff that's happening at Tesla, I am feeling so, SO confident that no usable features will be added until April 2020 after stoplights & enhanced summon.

So much that I am fully willing to bet $1,000 that the system will not be able to left or right turns at intersections by itself by April 1, 2020. If there are any takers, we can discuss terms!

 

[Daniel in SD]

You mean like the last one where AP wasn't even engaged in that loaner car? Listening to the FUD that's spewed is non-helpful.

I'm not saying that Tesla can't add stop sign and stop light recognition, I'm just saying that it would be a very bad idea. The consequences of running a stop sign are way worse for Tesla's image than someone plowing into the side of semi truck. It's not just bad press either, I think that it would result in regulators in many states deciding that they are testing self driving in violation of the current regulations.

 

[diplomat33]

I'm not saying that Tesla can't add stop sign and stop light recognition, I'm just saying that it would be a very bad idea. The consequences of running a stop sign are way worse for Tesla's image than someone plowing into the side of semi truck. It's not just bad press either, I think that it would result in regulators in many states deciding that they are testing self driving in violation of the current regulations.

You seem to be saying that Tesla can't do it right and therefore Teslas will inevitably run through red lights and hit stuff, so they should not even try. But what if Tesla does it right and Teslas don't run red lights?

 

[cucubits]

Anyone voting the top 3 options is living in fantasy land.

Regardless of what Elon Musk's personal Tesla can do, I predict that by April 2020, the only thing FSD Tesla's will have (on top of what we have today) will be the ability to stop at stoplights & stop signs and some unnecessary version of enhanced summon that can't do much.

If I could look into April 2020 right now and saw that FSD Tesla's could do stuff like taking right or left turns at intersections, or being able to keep going by themselves after taking highway exits (instead of having to stop at the end of the exit), I would be positively, absolutely, completely shocked.

If I could bet, I would bet half of my life savings on a Tesla not being able to drive everywhere on its own (regardless of regulation status) in the year 2025.

This is how I feel too, unless they ditch the practically flawed "camera only" solution. No matter how hard Elon wants this, they won't be able to perfect the software so much that it will work with vision only in all the scenarios needed for proper self driving.

 

[Daniel in SD]

It's possible. I had a loaner S that lost it's power steering and I was able to turn it--not that easily, but far easier than the force I had to use with the loss of power brakes. I'm not particularly strong either.

You're missing the point. The motor is more than powerful enough to turn the front wheels in the worst case condition, I doubt you were turning the wheel in whatever that is. Driving without power steering is easy when you're moving. I contend that applying over a hundred pounds of force to the steering wheel is not possible for most people in a normal driving position.

 

[EVNow]

If I could look into April 2020 right now and saw that FSD Tesla's could do stuff like taking right or left turns at intersections, or being able to keep going by themselves after taking highway exits (instead of having to stop at the end of the exit), I would be positively, absolutely, completely shocked.

You know, sometimes, the car can "keep going by themselves after taking highway exits" even now, by following the lead car. Just happened yesterday with my car.

Getting to city NOA - handling simple cases - is just a question of resources & time. Now that Tesla is throwing enough resources at the problem, they will get there. More over, unlike from 2016 to 2019, they are not distracted by existential threat of not being able to scale up Model 3.

What gets difficult is going from four 9s to six 9s, handling all the edge cases. Even here with enough resources, Waymo has been able to get to geofenced level 4. No reason Tesla can't do it in a couple of years.

If I could bet, I would bet half of my life savings on a Tesla not being able to drive everywhere on its own (regardless of regulation status) in the year 2025.

There is literally $10 Billion dollars bet on stock market that Tesla won't do well in the future. The day Tesla gets to level 4 - all those people shorting TSLA will go bankrupt