I can’t believe I’m the only one who voted according to Elon Musk’s promises on Autonomy Investory Day (choice 1).
It is almost as if people don’t believe him?
It is almost as if people don’t believe him?
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Where do you think Tesla's FSD will be 12 months from now (April 2020)?
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I can’t believe I’m the only one who voted according to Elon Musk’s promises on Autonomy Investory Day (choice 1).
It is almost as if people don’t believe him?
I don't believe Musk for the specifics but I believe in the Big Picture that he puts forward. For example, I agree with the overall goal of developing full self-driving and pushing features out via OTA updates even though I don't agree with his timeline of when FSD will happen. And I love Tesla's overall mission statement.
Quick question to the group here......
I recently bought a used 2017 Model S with very low miles, 10k. The car has EAP and the AP hw is v2.0. I know that the EAP option gives me pretty much everything except FSD, red lights, stop signs etc. With that in mind would you recommend that I buy the FSD for $3000? I know Elon just announced that here will be price increases for FSD in the coming months. I would do it if I knew that I would get the new 3.0 computer but thats not a guarantee either from what I am reading.
EAP vs FSD upgrade
Thoughts?
I recently bought a used 2017 Model S with very low miles, 10k. The car has EAP and the AP hw is v2.0. I know that the EAP option gives me pretty much everything except FSD, red lights, stop signs etc. With that in mind would you recommend that I buy the FSD for $3000? I know Elon just announced that here will be price increases for FSD in the coming months. I would do it if I knew that I would get the new 3.0 computer but thats not a guarantee either from what I am reading.
EAP vs FSD upgrade
Thoughts?
Yes, I would recommend that you buy FSD now for $3000. Doing so will lock in the $3000 price for all the "coming later this year" FSD features, specifically "traffic light and stop sign detection" and "automatic driving on city streets". Yes, you will also get the new FSD computer. I think that is a fair price for those benefits.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Competitors charge quite a bit even for small things like auto park. I think at $3K FSD is good value for what it gets you now + city NOA we will get in the next year or so.
Elon Musk promised a working version of FSD in 2016 with AP 2.0 (ready in 6 months) to only have AP 2.5 and AP 3.0 with no results.
And now respinning similar story line AGAIN.
Best to keep your money and wait until the wolf actually show up.
I tell my friends he is the new PT Bynum.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
If & when actual FSD shows up - you won't be able to buy it for $30k, let alone $3k.
Best is to look at what is available and what is likely in the next 12 months and see if it is worth it. Some of the competitors are charging 1,500 just for auto parking ! For $3k, you can get ….
- Freeway NOA (available)
- Enhanced Summon (in ~ 2months)
- City NOA (in ~ 12 months)
DanCar
Active Member
When do you think Tesla will level 3 for freeway available? Mind off, but somewhat ready to take control if the needs arises. You can do email, watch a movie, but not sleep. That is according to level 3 definition. I think everyone should lower their goals and aspirations to this lower level. I think it would be awesome if Tesla achieved this within the next two years.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think Level 3 makes little sense. I expect cars to go from Level 2 to Level 4 directly (in some distant future).
Tesla is unlikely to declare L3/L4 until they have evidence that it will not hurt them liability-wise. In terms of liability, L3/L4 on freeway is a lot more risky than in the city. Because of lower speeds (even though more complex), city L3/L4 is probably going to come first. For eg., that's what Aurora CEO says on AI podcast.
I think L3/L4 timeline on Tesla (or any retail car) is unknowable at this point. Even for industry insiders, let alone outsiders like us.
That is why I concentrate on things we can estimate, like FC for city NOA.
L3 actually does not make a lot of sense because if you can do self-driving that really works reliably then almost by definition, your self-driving should be good enough to work without a driver. And if your self-driving is good enough to work without a driver then you are already at L4 and don't need L3. That is why pretty much everybody including Tesla is aiming to go from L2 straight to L4.
Right now, Tesla is focused on "automatic city driving" so as to get to a basic "feature complete" (ie autopilot that works on both highways and city streets). Once they achieve this so-called "feature complete", Tesla will continue to improve it until it is L4 on both highways and city streets.
I suspect that in 2 years, Tesla will be pretty close to L4 autonomy.
Tesla has a slight problem with achieving L4 on an existing FSD vehicles.
That problem is you can't fall asleep at the wheel because the wheel is directly coupled to the steering the tires.
Now Tesla can do L3 as with L3 you're not supposed to fall asleep as you have to retake control within X amounts of seconds of being prompted.
If it's not L4 with sleeping then it's an L2 driver assist package. Sure it might be a really advanced driver assist, and it might be arguable that it's still worth a lot of money. But, it's a completely different thing than L4.
My prediction is in 2 years Tesla won't have L3, or L4. Instead they'll have an L2 driver assist in both the city, and highway.
Where the conversations in here about it will echo that of NoA of now. Where some people will rave about experiences, and other people will talk about how it tried to kill them.
The big decision for me is whether to buy my mom one even if it's only driving assist. It might be good enough to take some of my worry away or maybe I'll just make her sell her car.
Your second sentence confuses me a bit. Are you talking about the driver falling asleep on the wheel and causing AP to disengage? I am not sure how having a wheel means that the driver can't fall asleep. Plus, if Tesla does achieve L4, the car won't need a wheel at all or at the very least, Tesla could decouple the steering wheel when in autonomous mode to prevent accidental disengagements.
To your last sentence,no, Tesla cannot do L3 because the steering wheel nag is incompatible with L3. You can't do L3 if the driver is still expected to tug the wheel. The only way to do L3 is with a driver facing camera to monitor their attention but Tesla has so far rejected that approach. Without a driver facing camera, Tesla's only hope is to either stick with L2 or go to L4.
True but why assume that Tesla will just make a more and more advanced ADAS that never becomes self-driving? Remember, to reach true self-driving, the car needs complete OEDR. If Tesla can reach complete OEDR, then by definition, it will be self-driving, L3+ autonomy. It's all about what type of "features" Tesla adds. I see no reason to assume that Tesla won't at least try to add the remaining missing "OEDR features" to try to get to self-driving. And if Tesla keeps adding "OEDR features" until the OEDR is complete, then they will achieve self-driving.
As far as I know Tesla can't decouple the wheel or the brakes.
Where it's a NHTSA regulatory thing.
The problem with not decoupling is there is a chance of accidental inference if someone is sleeping. People do weird things when they sleep. For me the wheel wouldn't be an issue, but I'd obviously hit the brake pedal when shifting around.
As to the L3 driving there are some arguments that Tesla will have to do driver facing camera to make sure they're awake, but I don't know if that really works. With L3 you're allowed to be reading a book, or staring off into the sunset. How can an "attention" sensor really tell the difference between a person with their head tilted sleeping versus a person with their head tilted looking out the window. Ultimately I think L3 will fall down to either the driver taking over within X seconds or the car having to get over if they fail to. Where there won't be regulatory requirements for driver sensing other than "has the driver taken over" that can be done with the torque sensor.
If push comes to shove maybe Tesla can just make people slap one of these on their heads? Haha
Beddr | Wearable Sleep Tracking, Monitoring, & Analysis Device
I'd wear one while driving if it got me L3 on FSD.
For me all I really care about is the car taking responsibly. As long as I'm the one responsible it's still L2 regardless of how advanced it is. In fact the more advanced it is the more likely I am to fail at oversight.
L4 is massively challenging because of regulatory requirements. So I fear we're going to be stuck in L2 limbo for a really long time.
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Tam
Well-Known Member
Electrek got an article on it:
Yeah, I saw the article and immediately looked for a photo to see what it could see, and how good it could see at night.
But, I haven't seen either.
The only thing that shows the possible viewing angle is figure 3C. Which I imagine could be used to detect the person sleeping.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Of someone has EAP, s/he already has NOA and will automatically receive Enhanced Summon when its released. Thus, the next thing for FSD is City NOA, in (ahem) ~12 months in Elon Standard Time.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
This has to be the reason #100 Tesla can't do Level 4 anytime soon
What? “Deer in the headlight” Musk answer at the autonomy pitch didn’t convince you? That they simply detach the steering wheel and remove the pedals from their lease return 3 robotaxis?
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
The motor connected to the steering rack is so strong most people would have a lot of trouble overpowering it. Think about it, it's powerful enough to turn the wheels while the car is sitting still. Try turning the wheel of a 4000lb car without the engine on and add to that the steering ratio is quite a bit higher on a Model 3 than the average car and add to that the steering motor is stronger than the bare minimum needed.
I suspect that the brakes can be disabled by the ABS solenoids.
My prediction is that Tesla will be L2 on the highway and city NoA will never be released. My hope is that they're able to at least develop some sort of limited L3 for interstates.
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