Which direction should Tesla go as a company?

[AnOutsider]

ok, not ready for a serious debate yet.... I'll wait a bit longer :smile:

Well, it's sort of flogging the horse isn't it? The debate has been held, and we established a while ago that Tesla chose a path and we were discussing forward from there. Them holding back the car to tweak the interior due to customer feedback is not at all proof that they should have left the whole job to someone else and stuck to power trains. You have that opinion, so anything you see will be colored by the lenses you see through, but it doesn't make it true first off, and it's not really a productive conversation to rehash secondly.

 

[JRP3]

Yes, we need to wait until there is actually something to debate. Some minor glitches along the way are expected. Major automakers with decades of experience still have to deal with such things, there is no guarantee that Tesla would have avoided these types of issues if they had farmed out the work.

 

[Grendal]

Yes, we need to wait until there is actually something to debate. Some minor glitches along the way are expected. Major automakers with decades of experience still have to deal with such things, there is no guarantee that Tesla would have avoided these types of issues if they had farmed out the work.

And sometimes major automakers shoot themselves in the foot: 2004 Chevy SSR - The 50 Worst Cars of All Time - TIME

The Chevy SSR.

 

[Doug_G]

Yes, we need to wait until there is actually something to debate. Some minor glitches along the way are expected. Major automakers with decades of experience still have to deal with such things, there is no guarantee that Tesla would have avoided these types of issues if they had farmed out the work.

Yeah, that worked out just great for Fisker.

 

[doug]

If the argument is that Tesla should only be making drivetrains, then I have to disagree. While supposedly profitable, their drivetrain business is still low volume, with manufacturers like Toyota dipping their toes into the market. There is, however, word of a large contract with Daimler in the works.

But Tesla is a growing company. There's no reason they can't hire the right people and build the expertise for all the other aspects of manufacturing a car in-house. Why should they be limited? I'm sure delivering a great car also helps promote their drivetrain business.

Also all those drivetrain customers so far are essentially making conversions. The Model S demonstrates what you can do when you design an EV from the ground up, thus pushing the industry forward.

 

[dsm363]

But Tesla is a growing company. There's no reason they can't hire the right people and build the expertise for all the other aspects of manufacturing a car in-house. Why should they be limited? I'm sure delivering a great car also helps promote their drivetrain business.

Exactly. Tesla provided a proof of concept with the Roadster and now is doing a massive test fleet with the Model S in a sense of their powertrain technology. This saves other automakers long and extensive tests of the Tesla powertrain if they decide to use Tesla. There's also no guarantee that a 400 car test fleet using Tesla tech will turn into anything significant so relying just on power trains could be risky as a business. Having both allows Tesla to move forward on both fronts if they want.

 

[Kevin Sharpe]

Exactly. Tesla provided a proof of concept with the Roadster and now is doing a massive test fleet with the Model S in a sense of their powertrain technology.

Great! so Tesla will deliver and we can all rejoice....

 

[Kevin Sharpe]

If the argument is that Tesla should only be making drivetrains, then I have to disagree..

That was never the argument http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/8797-Which-direction-should-Tesla-go-as-a-company/page2?p=146635&viewfull=1#post146635

 

[JRP3]

Well it kind of was your argument. The Roadster was Tesla drive technology in Lotus's platform, and all your other suggestions were Tesla drives in other vehicles, except I guess they were supposed to build their own Roadster 4.0 Super car.

they do power-trains, electronics, and batteries really, really well...

 

[dsm363]

Great! so Tesla will deliver and we can all rejoice....

I agree. I think we're going to all get what we want. They will prove their technology on a massive scale with the Model S, sell more powertrains hopefully, and come out with an amazing Roadster 3.0 in 2014-2015. The future is looking pretty good if everything lines up.

 

[tander]

Overall, I think Tesla has done an excellent job with execution so far. However there are three things which I think are relatively major missed opportunities/mistakes which I would like to see them do something about.
1. They are really under-selling the safety of the Model S. It hasn't had full safety ratings come out yet, but that is a huge factor for a lot of people that are buying in that class of cars. Just think all the Volvo S60 people that pretty much buy because they think it's the safest car on the road.
2. The Model X is a very awesome car, but the falcon wing doors are going to alienate the market, considering that it's already a big change just switching to an EV, it's too innovative for a car that is supposed to be courting those outside the already timid market. And moreover, they are marketing it too myopically to women.
3. Again, while the X is very awesome, it doesn't add very much value to their business plan for now. They would be better served by going into the 3rd car for 2013and accessing the prius market and doing the X in unison or waiting until 2014.

 

[Robert.Boston]

3. Again, while the X is very awesome, it doesn't add very much value to their business plan for now. They would be better served by going into the 3rd car for 2013and accessing the prius market and doing the X in unison or waiting until 2014.

Remember that the Model X is borrowing heavily from the Model S "skateboard," so the development costs are a fraction of the full cost of developing the new Gen III platform to take on the mid-size sedan market (Prius, BMW 3-series, etc.). Tesla really needs to get some revenue in the door, and the Model X, with target sales of 15,000/year, will be faster to contribute to that revenue growth than the Gen III vehicle will be.

Also, the SUV market is huge and completely unserved by any other e-vehicle. All of the announced entry has been in the sedan market, so I think the Model X is a pretty savvy entry point.

I agree with you on the falcon doors, though. The gee-whiz Model S door handles are a small enough part of the package to, at worst, leave people indifferent. The gee-whiz falcon doors could really turn people off.

On the safety ratings, I sure hope that Tesla emphasizes safety heavily--Americans should really be scared about hurtling along at 70mph atop many gallons of highly flammable liquids!

 

[ElSupreme]

Also possibly several miles beyond that.

. . . . .

 

[richkae]

Also, the SUV market is huge and completely unserved by any other e-vehicle. All of the announced entry has been in the sedan market, so I think the Model X is a pretty savvy entry point.

After showing the Model X to a friend, he promptly put down a reservation. He does not have an SUV, but frequently feels the need for a larger vehicle to carry more people and stuff. He refused to own an SUV before because they are too inefficient for his regular use when he does not need that extra capacity but with the Model X he gets the true no compromise vehicle and no guilt. Thus, Tesla is growing the SUV market with the Model X ( at least by one ).

 

[tander]

Supreme,
I agree that they need to concentrate on revenue for now, which is why I disagree about the X. The luxury sedan market is actually quite a bit larger than the luxury suv market. Great attachment by the way...I really hope they start marketing the safety heavily...the truth is that it's not that hard to build a better car if you're willing to throw enough money at it, but a safer better car really is a big accomplishment!

 

[ElSupreme]

Supreme,
I agree that they need to concentrate on revenue for now, which is why I disagree about the X. The luxury sedan market is actually quite a bit larger than the luxury suv market. Great attachment by the way...I really hope they start marketing the safety heavily...the truth is that it's not that hard to build a better car if you're willing to throw enough money at it, but a safer better car really is a big accomplishment!

I just added the 'alt-text' Robert.Boston gave all the comments. I have been on a week long off-topic streak!

 

[Norbert]

Battery prices are still too high for a compelling Gen III car at a good price (for Tesla). The idea is to synchronize the Gen III with falling battery prices. 2015/2016 is currently considered a good time for that. If it were to take longer, Tesla would probably build more variations of the Model S/X, at that price level, first.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Battery prices are still too high for a compelling Gen III car at a good price (for Tesla). The idea is to synchronize the Gen III with falling battery prices. 2015/2016 is currently considered a good time for that. If it were to take longer, Tesla would probably build more variations of the Model S/X, at that price level, first.

Hi Norbert,

I completely agree. If battery prices remain too high for the contemplated release dates of the "Mass Market" vehicle, Tesla needs to consciously remain a niche player.

Larry

 

[doug]

If battery prices stay high, maybe we'll see that next Roadster on the GenIII platform before the mass market car.

 

[WhiteKnight]

Hi Norbert,

I completely agree. If battery prices remain too high for the contemplated release dates of the "Mass Market" vehicle, Tesla needs to consciously remain a niche player.

Larry

Elon said on tonight's conference call that he thinks Gen 3 will have a breakthrough battery. Different technology and lower resulting cost. Said he couldn't say any more about that because of NDAs et cetera.