Who can catch Tesla ? They seem to be experiencing exponential growth…..

[cwerdna]

Oh yeah, there's https://www.reuters.com/business/au...worlds-top-selling-automaker-2023-2024-01-30/.
"TOKYO, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Toyota Motor... retained its crown as the world's top-selling automaker for the fourth consecutive year after posting record annual sales of 11.2 million vehicles in 2023, though its chairman apologised on Tuesday for scandals at three group companies."

As I posted in another thread:

Toyota hikes annual profit forecast after third quarter beats expectations

Toyota Motor raised its full-year operating profit forecast by nearly 9%, after higher sales volumes and a weaker yen boosted its third-quarter results.

www.cnbc.com

"The Japanese firm raised its profit forecast for the current year to 4.9 trillion yen ($33 billion) from 4.5 trillion expected previously. That is well above an average analyst forecast of 4.6 trillion yen, according to LSEG data.

Toyota’s operating profit for the three months to Dec. 31 totalled 1.68 trillion yen, up 75.7% a year earlier and beating the average 1.3 trillion yen profit estimate in a poll of nine analysts by LSEG."

 

[cwerdna]

EV Sales Plunge 55% In Germany As Incentives Dry Up | Carscoops

Sales of electric vehicles plummeted in January, hinting at turmoil within the broader German automotive sector

www.carscoops.com

"Compared to December 2023, sales of new electric vehicles were down 54.9 percent, while sales of plug-in hybrids were down 19.6 percent in the first month of 2024. On the other hand, the markets for vehicles with internal combustion engines were up more than 9 percent — +9.1 percent for gas, +9.5 percent for diesel."

Plug-In Car Sales In Germany Decreased By 58% In December 2023

In December, the total new plug-in electric car registrations amounted to 72,548, which is 58% less than a year ago, although from a high base.

insideevs.com

Germany set for 14% drop in electric-vehicle sales as carmakers scale back ambitions and demand 'does not look good'

EV adoption is slowing, plug-in hybrids are making a return from the sidelines, and BMW's CEO is feeling vindicated.

fortune.com

"After years of surging growth, selling EVs is becoming tougher. Generous government incentives are disappearing in Europe and fewer vehicles qualify for them in the US. While a range of new models and commitment-light leasing options have attracted the attention of electric enthusiasts, some years into the EV revolution, infrastructure and price still remain roadblocks to widespread adoption.

In Germany, sales are set to drop 14% this year in response to the government yanking subsidies in December, the first decline since 2016, according to the VDA lobbying group."

 

[kpanda17]

Incentives need to stay until the large wave of adoption is in full swing

In the usa we have to STOP incentivizing hybrids and PHEVs

Money only for pure EVs

 

[cwerdna]

Incentives need to stay until the large wave of adoption is in full swing

In the usa we have to STOP incentivizing hybrids and PHEVs

Money only for pure EVs

FWIW, in the US, there are no Federal rebates, tax credits nor any sort of Federal consumer monetary incentives for non-plugin hybrids. That ended over a decade ago: Federal Tax Credits for Hybrids. For some of the more popular non-plugin hybrids, it ended even earlier (e.g. Oct 1, 2007 for Toyota/Lexus and Jan 1, 2009 for Honda).

Few PHEVs in the US qualify for any Federal tax credit. From Federal Tax Credits for Plug-in Electric and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Purchased in 2023 or After, for those where a customer takes delivery in 2024, only 5 models qualify. They're from Stellantis and Ford.

 

[kpanda17]

FWIW, in the US, there are no Federal rebates, tax credits nor any sort of direct to the consumer monetary incentives for non-plugin hybrids. That ended over a decade ago: Federal Tax Credits for Hybrids. For some of the more popular non-plugin hybrids, it ended even earlier (e.g. Oct 1, 2007 for Toyota/Lexus and Jan 1, 2009 for Honda).

Few PHEVs in the US qualify for any tax credit. From Federal Tax Credits for Plug-in Electric and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Purchased in 2023 or After, for those where a customer takes delivery in 2024, only 5 models qualify. They're from Stellantis and Ford.

Thanks for clarifying
The 4xes are still getting $7500
Terrible

 

[cwerdna]

Thanks for clarifying
The 4xes are still getting $7500
Terrible

Per Federal Tax Credits for Plug-in Electric and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Purchased in 2023 or After, if you select taking delivery April 18, 2023 to Dec 31, 2023 or Jan 1, 2024 to Dec 31, 2024, The Jeep Wrangler PHEV 4xe + their other PHEV is eligible for $3750.

It is $7500 for Pacifica Hybrid, which is a PHEV for both those date bands.

 

[kpanda17]

Per Federal Tax Credits for Plug-in Electric and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Purchased in 2023 or After, if you select taking delivery April 18, 2023 to Dec 31, 2023 or Jan 1, 2024 to Dec 31, 2024, The Jeep Wrangler PHEV 4xe + their other PHEV is eligible for $3750.

It is $7500 for Pacifica Hybrid, which is a PHEV for both those date bands.

Thanks
Point is PHEVs should get nada
They are not for the mission
Which by the way is at a critical point

 

[Earl]

Thanks
Point is PHEVs should get nada
They are not for the mission
Which by the way is at a critical point

I have to somewhat disagree. PHEVs can be just as clean as pure BEV if they're plugged in all the time. We can't let "Perfect" be the enemy of 'Good Enough'.
However:
1) I believe that any incentives should be based on BEV mileage. This is because PHEVs with short BEV range won't eliminate the emissions from the heavy commuters that produce the most emissions. Wimpy 12 to 20 EV mile PHEVs that only charge at 3 KW should only get about 20% of any incentives that a BEV gets and ones with decent range should only get about 50%. For simplicity, I'd put the break point at 40 miles (20% incentives below 40 EPA BEV miles, 50% above)
2) I don't see PHEVs as being economically viable anyway. Like Hydrogen Fool Sells, they will die on their own unless propped up artificially. As GM and Honda both learned: Putting enough batteries in to achieve a reasonable BEV range (40+ EV miles) costs too much to be profitable selling at market prices. They were fine for a bit of greenwashing as long as the ICE manufacturers only had to sell a few at a loss to get their green cred' but once they started to become a part of the real product lines, they failed. PHEVs do fit nicely within the ICE company infrastructure since they still include all of the ICE specialities (Powertrains, Powerplants, Fuel Systems, Emissions Systems, Lube, NVH, etc). Therefore, they will be popular in the boardrooms and will remain an issue as long as the old guard continue to desperately cling to power.

 

[wws]

I have to somewhat disagree. PHEVs can be just as clean as pure BEV if they're plugged in all the time. We can't let "Perfect" be the enemy of 'Good Enough'.
However:
1) I believe that any incentives should be based on BEV mileage. This is because PHEVs with short BEV range won't eliminate the emissions from the heavy commuters that produce the most emissions. Wimpy 12 to 20 EV mile PHEVs that only charge at 3 KW should only get about 20% of any incentives that a BEV gets and ones with decent range should only get about 50%. For simplicity, I'd put the break point at 40 miles (20% incentives below 40 EPA BEV miles, 50% above)
2) I don't see PHEVs as being economically viable anyway. Like Hydrogen Fool Sells, they will die on their own unless propped up artificially. As GM and Honda both learned: Putting enough batteries in to achieve a reasonable BEV range (40+ EV miles) costs too much to be profitable selling at market prices. They were fine for a bit of greenwashing as long as the ICE manufacturers only had to sell a few at a loss to get their green cred' but once they started to become a part of the real product lines, they failed. PHEVs do fit nicely within the ICE company infrastructure since they still include all of the ICE specialities (Powertrains, Powerplants, Fuel Systems, Emissions Systems, Lube, NVH, etc). Therefore, they will be popular in the boardrooms and will remain an issue as long as the old guard continue to desperately cling to power.

My wifes 2016 (Gen 2) Volt is almost totally run in EV mode. When new, it typically showed over 50 miles of EV range at full charge. Now after ~75k miles it is in the 40s.

It is interesting that back when the Voltstats game (Volt Stats! (RIP) Tracked real world usage of Chevy Volts in the wild...) was on-going, one could bring up some interesting graphs that could be used to compare Gen 1 to Gen 2. The Gen 1 Volts had a EPA EV range of mid-30s miles. You could see a definite fall-off point in the graphs where typical daily usage across the fleet of Voltstats gamers would switch from EV to using gas. The Gen 2 (low 50s miles range) graphs showed little of this.

So I would draw the line at 50 miles, or a bit more. I.e., the Gen 2 Volt designers got it right. Especially when one considers cold weather (no heat pump, though the ICE is used for heat below a certain threshold), and long term battery pack degradation.

 

[Earl]

So I would draw the line at 50 miles, or a bit more. I.e., the Gen 2 Volt designers got it right. Especially when one considers cold weather (no heat pump, though the ICE is used for heat below a certain threshold), and long term battery pack degradation.

I can't argue that although that some might, given the fact that the average driver only puts ~30 miles on a car per day.
I suspect, however, that 50 miles minimum would solidly put the nail in the coffin for PHEV economics from the manufacturer. Remember, GM was able to sell the Volt for $40K - $50K. With cheap BEVs entering the market, capable of 200 miles and 100 KW+ charging speeds, coupled with reliable DCFCs available every 100 miles or less, I'm not sure they'll be able to sell for that price.
If they were losing money at $40K+, there's probably no way they'll be able to compete profitably at $30K - $35K.

 

[kpanda17]

It will be impossible to hold back the Chinese EVs and these will kill off PHEVs and greatly hurt USA legacy auto.
Americans like Walmart and will love $15K to 25K EVs and don't care where they come from. Walmart is almost exclusively selling Chinese stuff.

The doom is coming.

 

[Hiline]

It will be impossible to hold back the Chinese EVs and these will kill off PHEVs and greatly hurt USA legacy auto.
Americans like Walmart and will love $15K to 25K EVs and don't care where they come from. Walmart is almost exclusively selling Chinese stuff.

The doom is coming.

It's going to come a point where Chinese EVs break into the US market despite the tariffs because these cars are manufactured for so cheap. Only Ford has any hope, among US legacy auto.

 

[cwerdna]

Here's another one of many countries with very low EV penetration.

Mexico makes lots of electric cars, but few Mexicans drive them

With Tesla Inc's plan to open a $5 billion Gigafactory in Mexico, the country should soon become a hub of electric vehicle (EV) production, but the zero emissions cars remain too expensive for most Mexicans and they are impractical to drive in much of the country, which lacks enough charging...

www.reuters.com

I mentioned Brazil in the above and it came up again at Stellantis Bets $6.1 Billion on Brazil as Regional Hybrid Leader. Copy at https://archive.is/r96ww if you get hit by a paywall.

"Since their introduction 20 years ago, flex-fuel cars have become dominant in Brazil, making up a whopping 83.3% of all auto sales in 2023, according to the Brazilian Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers, known as Anfavea. During that same period, electric cars comprised 0.4% of the market and hybrids 2.1%."

Brazil's population is about 214 million vs. almost 331 million in the US.

 

[Earl]

Since their introduction 20 years ago, flex-fuel cars have become dominant in Brazil

Yep, cut down those trees to make way for sugar cane to turn to ethanol to burn. It works for them but not globally when the rest of us count on those rainforests to make our oxygen.
Luckily, thanks to Tesla's focus on cost reduction despite the whining from elitists in the US who like their exclusivity, EV prices are coming down and will eventually be cheaper, even in places like Brazil.
Even if they generate their electricity from what they grow on their land, it will be more efficient than converting things to ethanol, then burning them in wasteful ICE.

 

[cwerdna]

"Tesla shares fall after deliveries drop 8.5% from a year ago"

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/02/tesla-tsla-q1-2024-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html

BYD hands back top EV seller title to Tesla after Q1 sales decline

BYD, China's biggest electric vehicle (EV) maker, reported first quarter 2024 sales fell 43% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, handing back the title of world's biggest EV seller to Tesla after winning it last year.

www.cnbc.com

 

[keysinpocket]

It will be impossible to hold back the Chinese EVs and these will kill off PHEVs and greatly hurt USA legacy auto.
Americans like Walmart and will love $15K to 25K EVs and don't care where they come from. Walmart is almost exclusively selling Chinese stuff.

The doom is coming.

Then we would either impose huge tariffs on them or outright restrict them on the virtue of national security. I've taken some of these Chinese brands cars before and they are cheaper than our brands but lacking some of the most distinct features that we have. Chinese is cheap because they control their entire supply chain, but if US can do it, then we can outpace them with our own.

IMO, I would think that Tesla is a tech company, BYD is primarily a car company. Maybe in terms of expansion, I would think that Chinese companies would take another branding to market their product like what they did to Lotus and Volvo.

 

[oldsport]

i see a future for chinese ev s floodin the usa and crushin it here...

this will happen after winnie the pooh is taken out - mainland china properly addresses the world in a sincere nonthreatening way - collaborate w everyone on everything not unilaterally...

i hope to see the day...

 

[kpanda17]

Then we would either impose huge tariffs on them or outright restrict them on the virtue of national security. I've taken some of these Chinese brands cars before and they are cheaper than our brands but lacking some of the most distinct features that we have. Chinese is cheap because they control their entire supply chain, but if US can do it, then we can outpace them with our own.

IMO, I would think that Tesla is a tech company, BYD is primarily a car company. Maybe in terms of expansion, I would think that Chinese companies would take another branding to market their product like what they did to Lotus and Volvo.

dont forget about USMCA, if built in Canada or Mexico, the USA cannot discriminate
china will build factories in mexico
not only will IRA money go to china their mex vehicles will come in without a vig on them
as the EU experienced, hell is about to start for the US veh manufacturers

 

[Bouba]

dont forget about USMCA, if built in Canada or Mexico, the USA cannot discriminate
china will build factories in mexico
not only will IRA money go to china their mex vehicles will come in without a vig on them
as the EU experienced, hell is about to start for the US veh manufacturers

I think that they can object on security grounds.... the potential for surveillance...much like Huawei and Tic Tok

 

[kpanda17]

I think that they can object on security grounds.... the potential for surveillance...much like Huawei and Tic Tok

im in cyber and agree, like the approach, but will be very interesting how its received by China
think it must be obvious, our USA tech locally in China is probably filtered/blocked for the same reason
interesting, EVs are IoT (Internet of Things) and IoT is a threat if not controlled and protected from
think the MGM cyber attack came from an IP thermostat on one of the aquariums, Target's was from the HVAC
the attack surface in 2024 is huge