Why AP 2.0 Won't Be Here Soon, and It Won't Be What You Think It Is

[hollywood]

Is your VIN above 163XXX or so? If you look at the option codes in the source, do you see the new APE1 option code?

Model X VIN 23XXX, no option codes seen, just the list of features. "Autopilot Hardware 1 with Convenience Features"

Per DS: Expected production mid November with early December delivery

California.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Model X VIN 23XXX, no option codes seen, just the list of features. "Autopilot Hardware 1 with Convenience Features"

Expected production mid November with early December delivery

Oh, sorry, didn't see you had an X. The Xes that I saw listed with the new hardware all had lower VINS starting around 22XXX, and since yours probably came after those, I would think it has the new hardware.

If you view the source on your My Tesla page, you should see a link showing the options and it would probably have the APE1 code listed there.

 

[ohmman]

I can't remember. Didn't someone promise to eat their hat if the announcement was AP 2.0? I think this counts.

I don't remember who it was, so let's just say it was @HankLloydRight.

 

[3Victoria]

This announcement was unexpected by most (of the larger world) and is a new product, called Tesla Vision.

 

[hollywood]

If you view the source on your My Tesla page, you should see a link showing the options and it would probably have the APE1 code listed there.

from the source of the mytesla page "options=BC0R,COL3-PPMR,DRLH,FG02,PI01,RFPX,TP03,WT20,X019,X024"
...
"mappings" : {
"DA01" : "APE0",
"DA02" : "APE1"
...
"add_toggle_matrix_for_autopilot_2": {
"markets" : ["all"],
"context" : ["customer_configurator", "pay_now", "admin_configurator", "bulk_import"],
"price_books": ['all'],
"models" : ["mx", 'ms'],
"invalid_markets" : [],
"toggle_matrix" : {
"APE1" : {
"APF0": "APF1"
},
"APE0" : {
"APF1": "APF0"

 

[wave1]

There is a lot of speculation that Autopilot 2.0 is imminent--perhaps coming within a quarter or two. There's also a lot of speculation that Autopilot 2.0 will be capable of level 4 autonomy.

I'm going to put myself out there and say: Not a chance.

I should "color" this opinion, as the financial analysts like to put it, by stating that:

1. I am a huge Tesla fan
2. I am a huge Elon Musk fan
3. I am a fan of technology
4. I am a happy early Model S adopter (reservation January 2010, first S delivered Dec. 2012).

But this forum tends to be the king of manufacturing unrealistic expectations. I'll summarize this post right off the bat by saying the following: If you are putting off a Tesla purchase waiting for autonomous driving, you're wasting your time.

You will probably not see AP 2.0 hardware for another few quarters at the very earliest. And that's being optimistic.

You will not see AP 2.0 (what I am using to characterize level 4 autonomy) for about 5 years. And that's being VERY optimistic, even keeping in mind the blindingly fast pace Tesla is moving with this technology.

You will not see level 3 autonomy from Tesla for at least 2 years. And that's being optimistic.

Let me explain.

Autopilot has been out for a year now. While improvements have been remarkable, think about the basic highway driving scenarios that aren't handled yet.

1. Every time I crest a hill, my car dives for the left or right side of the road unless I'm following another car.
2. Every time the lane markings fade, the car drifts and I have to take over.
3. Every time I pass an entrance ramp with cars merging, I have to take control. AP does not handle sequencing itself with merging vehicles.
4. Every time I'm merging myself, I have to take control. The car cannot sequence itself to merge onto the highway.
5. The car does not automatically change lanes to maintain a target speed.
6. The car does not avoid large road obstructions.
7. The car does not move laterally to avoid parked cars on the shoulder, bicyclists, or pedestrians.
8. The car is not always clear about which lane a car ahead is in. Sometimes TACC slows for a car in an adjacent lane.
9. If a car cuts in front of you, the braking is later than most would consider to be comfortable.
10. The car cannot stop as smoothly or gradually as a human would (though something close to this may be coming in 8.0).

These are just a few scenarios in the simplest driving environment--on a highway. While some of these scenarios would clearly benefit from additional hardware, some of them should be perfectly doable with existing hardware: notably 1, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10. There are more examples of improvements that can come with existing hardware. For example:

-Stoplight and stop sign recognition.
-Automatic speed limit adjustment.
-When following a vehicle, the car should maintain itself over the path that the lead car took over the ground. (This is useful when following a car on a road without lane markings, or when passing through an intersection without lane markings). Instead, it tends to somewhat "cut the corner" and head straight for the lead car, which could put you into the curb or an adjacent lane (or an adjacent car!)
-If following a car into an unmarked intersection and the lead car changes lanes, your car will follow it into the adjacent lane! This will greatly surprise the car next to you and could lead to a bad day.
-In stop and go traffic, if the lead car alternates between moving a few feet forward, then stopping...then moving forward, then stopping...then your car will annoyingly accelerate, brake, etc. Car should be able to recognize that the time average speed of the lead car is low, and glide along gradually at a very slow speed, using little energy or brakes and leading to a smooth slow ride.

These are additional scenarios that are perfectly achievable with existing hardware.

So over a year of autopilot, we've seen improvement in lane holding, smoothness of steering (and, to a lesser extent, braking). contrast, and other things. But there is a *LONG* way to go before we've exhausted AP1.0 hardware capabilities.

So while it's possible that, within a few quarters, Tesla could put out cars with hardware for full autonomy (or at least level 3) and then update them via software over time, I wouldn't expect fully autonomous hardware anytime soon. Why?

1. Achieving level 4 is clearly an interative process. Starting out, Tesla thought they could rely on cameras. After the Joshua Brown accident, they realized the limitation of using cameras as a primary sensor (I believe this caused Tesla to end the relationship with Mobileye) and changed their focus. This will probably happen again. For instance, Elon might be against LIDAR, but he may come around to it if radar processing doesn't turn out to work as well as he'd hoped.

2. Each sensor that's added makes the processing and software that much more involved and complicated.

3. Level 3 and certainly 4 will require an enormous amount of testing and validation. By Elon's benchmark, it has to be an order of magnitude safer than a human driver at the very least. Probably several years worth of testing data once they have a Level 4 system before Tesla says you can ride as a passenger while the car drives. But certainly even longer before the government says it's ok..

4. Building a bunch of cars with level 4 hardware and selling them to customers with a promise that they might be able to use them for level 4 driving 5 or more years down the road doesn't make sense. That would be a money-losing proposition for Tesla, unless there are enough foolish buyers out there to pay for the feature many years before it could potentially even be usable.

Yes, Elon mentioned the car being able to drive from NY to pick you up in LA in about 2 years. (Guess what? As awesome as he is, did anyone ever notice that he's a bit overly optimistic when it comes to time frames?)

Yes, what Tesla is doing is awesome.

Yes, Tesla's gathering FAR more data than *anyone* out there.

But if you extrapolate the improvements we've seen since 7.0 and project that out toward even Level 3 autonomy, you should be able to recognize it will be several years before you can chill out and watch your Tesla automatically merge with traffic and autonomously change lanes. And even longer before it will navigate an intersection and make a turn for you.

Yes, there are "marketing" and "research" videos out there showing what approaches Level 3 and 4 technology. But while you might see something near Level 3 or 4 autonomy in the video, that's a very narrow subset of the curveballs the world can throw at you.

I hate to burst any bubbles, but putting a Level 4 car out there in the real world is many orders of magnitude harder.

Long story short, if you're waiting for the "fully autonomous Tesla" before you put down your deposit, I recommend either buying now or moving on. It's going to be awhile.

It's going to be interesting as hell.

But it's going to be awhile.

How you feeling about your 100% declaration now?

 

[Canuck]

New hardware is simply more radar, cameras and faster processing. It need not be activated when initially placed on vehicles (and very likely will not be) but being available for future activation is huge given the relatively low cost of the hardware and tons of Model 3's that will be pumped out from day 1. The change to radar does not at all change the fact that Tesla is very slim on hardware and I don't see Tesla putting the same hardware and processing on the Model 3 as in use today.

Rather than pick on those who were wrong, I'll toot my own horn. I posted the above back on Sept. 13 as post #78 in this thread.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

from the source of the mytesla page "options=BC0R,COL3-PPMR,DRLH,FG02,PI01,RFPX,TP03,WT20,X019,X024"
...
"mappings" : {
"DA01" : "APE0",
"DA02" : "APE1"
...
"add_toggle_matrix_for_autopilot_2": {
"markets" : ["all"],
"context" : ["customer_configurator", "pay_now", "admin_configurator", "bulk_import"],
"price_books": ['all'],
"models" : ["mx", 'ms'],
"invalid_markets" : [],
"toggle_matrix" : {
"APE1" : {
"APF0": "APF1"
},
"APE0" : {
"APF1": "APF0"

It's hard to tell from that partial snippet of code. Do you have a link that starts

 <a href="/mytesla/pdf/view-design-pdf?model=mx&amp;options=

That would list out a more complete set of options. DA02 = AP 1. APE1 = AP2 (Enhanced Autopilot).

 

[hollywood]

It's hard to tell from that partial snippet of code. Do you have a link that starts

 <a href="/mytesla/pdf/view-design-pdf?model=mx&amp;options=

That would list out a more complete set of options. DA02 = AP 1. APE1 = AP2 (Enhanced Autopilot).

Thanks for clarifying the specific part of the source code. Here it is, DA02 mentioned in the jumble. Possibly not updated? Production in November afterall, so should be at minimum enhanced AP right?

options=MDLX%2CRENA%2CAD15%2CAF02%2CAH00%2CAU00%2CBC0R%2CBP00%2CBR00%2CBS00%2CBTX4%2CCC03%2CCDM0%2CCH05%2CCOL3-PPMR%2CCOUS%2CCW02%2CDA02%2CDRLH%2CDSH7%2CDV4W%2CFG02%2CFR02%2CGLFR%2CHP00%2CIDCF%2CIX01%2CLP01%2CLT3W%2CME02%2CMI00%2CMX01%2CPA00%2CPF01%2CPI01%2CPK00%2CPS00%2CPX4D%2CQLEW%2CRFPX%2CS06W%2CSC01%2CSP00%2CSR01%2CST02%2CSU01%2CTIC4%2CTM00%2CTP03%2CTR01%2CTRA1%2CTW01%2CUM01%2CUSSW%2CUTAB%2CWT20%2CX001%2CX003%2CX007%2CX011%2CX014%2CX019%2CX024%2CX026%2CX028%2CX031%2CX037%2CX040%2CX042%2CYFFC

 

[Canuck]

APE1 = AP2 (Enhanced Autopilot).

Hmmmm,.. Humans have two AP endonucleases, APE1 and APE2. Apurinic/apyrimidinic (AP) endonuclease (BRENDA = 4.2.99.18) is an enzyme that is involved in the DNA base excision repair pathway (BER).

Coincidence? I think not.

 

[lolachampcar]

nerd alert

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Thanks for clarifying the specific part of the source code. Here it is, DA02 mentioned in the jumble.

options=MDLX%2CRENA%2CAD15%2CAF02%2CAH00%2CAU00%2CBC0R%2CBP00%2CBR00%2CBS00%2CBTX4%2CCC03%2CCDM0%2CCH05%2CCOL3-PPMR%2CCOUS%2CCW02%2CDA02%2CDRLH%2CDSH7%2CDV4W%2CFG02%2CFR02%2CGLFR%2CHP00%2CIDCF%2CIX01%2CLP01%2CLT3W%2CME02%2CMI00%2CMX01%2CPA00%2CPF01%2CPI01%2CPK00%2CPS00%2CPX4D%2CQLEW%2CRFPX%2CS06W%2CSC01%2CSP00%2CSR01%2CST02%2CSU01%2CTIC4%2CTM00%2CTP03%2CTR01%2CTRA1%2CTW01%2CUM01%2CUSSW%2CUTAB%2CWT20%2CX001%2CX003%2CX007%2CX011%2CX014%2CX019%2CX024%2CX026%2CX028%2CX031%2CX037%2CX040%2CX042%2CYFFC

From that, it looks like you originally ordered it and it was coded with DA02...but it's possible they built it with APE1 and haven't updated it yet. Mine is scheduled for late November / early December delivery and still shows DA02. Hopefully they'll be updating the codes and/or VIN soon. Since mine hasn't had parts sourced or entered production, they haven't built it yet and I should get APE1.

Sorry I can't say for sure what you'll be getting!

 

[HankLloydRight]

I don't remember who it was, so let's just say it was @HankLloydRight.

You're right, I did say that. But it wasn't for AP 2.0. It was for a new browser.

Updated Broswer on its Way!

But you are correct in thinking I was equally skeptical about AP 2.0 coming out anytime soon. But all Tesla really did was a PR stunt to release the hardware for AP 2.0 or "Full Self-Driving Capability". Which really isn't that hard. It's the software that we won't see for how long? Oh, and AP 2.0 can't even do what AP 1.0 can do today!

Don't get me wrong, I love Tesla and everything they're doing. This is the third time I've guessed completely wrong on what they're releasing, so I've learned my lesson. But with the AP 2.0 announcement, there are A LOT of small print/weasel words to not really be on the hook to deliver anything other than some cameras and radar units on their cars.

 

[Canuck]

to not really be on the hook to deliver anything other than some cameras and radar units on their cars.

You forgot the new processor.

But yeah, it's all no big deal at all...

 

[HankLloydRight]

You forgot the new processor.

You're right, I forgot the new processor... which will sit idle for quite some time waiting for software (and laws) to fully utilize it.

 

[3Victoria]

Nah, it will be playing solitaire... should get pretty good at it, too!

 

[Canuck]

You're right, I forgot the new processor... which will sit idle for quite some time waiting for software (and laws) to fully utilize it.

Once again, someone needs to explain to me why Tesla needs to wait for "laws" or legislation to use the new hardware? All the legislation will do is remove the nags, and by extension the driver, from the equation. But you can still have a full self-driving car but require a driver in the seat. The appeal of AP2.0 to me is that AP1.0 is so lacking on hardware, and has slow processing, that I can't relax while using it, even while paying attention, at least for the week I had one as a loaner and did a lot of highway driving. AP2.0 allows for that relax factor, and stopping at lights, stop signs, turning, etc., without waiting for legislation, as long as you pay attention. Even with legislative approval, I'd be paying attention, unless, of course, I'm not in the car and it goes to Supercharge or park. So what you say above makes no sense to me.

 

[3Victoria]

Well, for blowing one's own horn, I said as post 13:

I also think new sensors will be installed soon, including at least 4 corner radar and 2-3 front cameras. These would allow safer merging and lane changes at least. I would also like complete 360 camera coverage. Price on all of these is falling impressively.

Processing power will also need to increase massively, but NVidia chips might work well, or their Tesla developed alternatives. I would think an image processor per radar or camera, and additional compute power for integration, logistics and control will be necessary.

I was wrong about the 'more radars' but pretty good on the rest.

 

[HankLloydRight]

as long as you pay attention.

And there's the rub. We've already seen someone kill themselves relying on AP1.0 too much and not paying attention. AP2.0 is just going to make that worse, and more people will not pay attention and get into accidents and injure and kill people.

But as I said, the software isn't even ready yet to even test this out.

edit: I'd love to get into a discussion about AP and AI and what it can and can't do, but I just don't have the time until November.

 

[Canuck]

And there's the rub. We've already seen someone kill themselves relying on AP1.0 too much and not paying attention. AP2.0 is just going to make that worse, and more people will not pay attention and get into accidents and injure and kill people. But as I said, the software isn't even ready yet to even test this out. edit: I'd love to get into a discussion about AP and AI and what it can and can't do, but I just don't have the time until November.

Seriously? First it wasn't coming soon and now that it's here it's more dangerous?

And you're suggesting they won't be using the new cameras, radar, processor until full autonomy, and the driver is not required? Wow.

That's simply not true and makes no sense at all. Yes, certain features will take a little bit of time, but not until the legislation allows full autonomy - maybe a couple of months or so - that's all. But there's no use arguing -- just watch.

Then I can come back and toot my own horn again. I though the first discussion about no AP2.0 soon at least had some merit, but I didn't buy it, but now that it's here the position has gone bizarre -- even going into AI!