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Why AP 2.0 Won't Be Here Soon, and It Won't Be What You Think It Is
- Thread starter Todd Burch
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- Model S
Probably just based on the current new orders delivery estimate. Of course that does not mean orders placed in Sept are being delivered in December. Just look at Oct/Nov delivery threads.
I drove I-5 to California last week. I saw three car carriers loaded with Teslas going north on I-5 in Oregon alone. I'm not sure how many I saw in California. I did pass close to the Fremont plant and must have seen at least a half dozen in that area. I am 100% certain Tesla is delivering new cars in the US right now.
Tesla has tended in the past to concentrate on overseas orders in the first half of a quarter, but I think that pattern is changing. They may not be delivering as many US cars this month, but they are delivering enough that I saw many of their trucks in only 4 days on the road, and two of those days were on the coast where Tesla delivery trucks rarely go (Tesla ships most west coast cars via I-5, I've seen loaded trucks both southbound towards Los Angeles and northbound on I-5).
Lex
Member
So far I'm certain it's Tesla Vision (and/or Tesla Finance / Bank of Tesla).
With the split with MobilEye, and the earlier massively accelerated development with hiring of piles of existing machine vision experts, and the new camera housing, harnesses, and all the other stuff people have mentioned...
Sounds like AP 1.5 time to me.
edit: since it means more of everything, new hardware and software, why not 2.0 sounds good to me
With the split with MobilEye, and the earlier massively accelerated development with hiring of piles of existing machine vision experts, and the new camera housing, harnesses, and all the other stuff people have mentioned...
Sounds like AP 1.5 time to me.
edit: since it means more of everything, new hardware and software, why not 2.0 sounds good to me
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sillydriver
Member
Damn! I just bought an Apple watch.Elon's Tweet said the product announcement is for something that few people are expecting. Maybe it's the Tesla watch?
Yesterday's AP 2.0 announcement really wasn't that unexpected.
Tesla pushed to sell off as many of their AP 1.0 inventory as possible in September.
Tesla will continue to risk bad publicity with AP 1.0 accidents, but can now state - "that will be fixed with AP 2.0", even though it may be several years before the functionality is enabled.
Having AP 2.0 available for the Model 3 provides that "killer app" for the Model 3 that GM and the other manufacturers may not be ready to introduce in the Bolt and other long range EVs for several years, again putting Tesla in a position of having the best EV hardware.
And, if anyone was waiting to get AP 2.0 before placing an order, they don't have to wait any longer (though we're still waiting for a 100D to be available).
The only downside is the cost - AP 2.0 increases the cost of the Model S and X by $5,500 (compared to an S/X several months ago). Though a price increase was inevitable, because there are more sensors and processing power.
Tesla pushed to sell off as many of their AP 1.0 inventory as possible in September.
Tesla will continue to risk bad publicity with AP 1.0 accidents, but can now state - "that will be fixed with AP 2.0", even though it may be several years before the functionality is enabled.
Having AP 2.0 available for the Model 3 provides that "killer app" for the Model 3 that GM and the other manufacturers may not be ready to introduce in the Bolt and other long range EVs for several years, again putting Tesla in a position of having the best EV hardware.
And, if anyone was waiting to get AP 2.0 before placing an order, they don't have to wait any longer (though we're still waiting for a 100D to be available).
The only downside is the cost - AP 2.0 increases the cost of the Model S and X by $5,500 (compared to an S/X several months ago). Though a price increase was inevitable, because there are more sensors and processing power.
Glad to see yesterday's announcement is what I was waiting for. We originally ordered two Model S in April right before the refresh was announced but I decided we didn't need two new Teslas in the house at the same time so I delayed my order. While the new Enhanced Autopilot will be a step behind the existing autopilot for a short time, I'm looking forward to receiving my new car with the new hardware and capabilities.
I can't remember. Didn't someone promise to eat their hat if the announcement was AP 2.0? I think this counts.
I can't remember. Didn't someone promise to eat their hat if the announcement was AP 2.0? I think this counts.
RogerHScott
Active Member
Can we pretty much assume that 8.0 will be the last significant software upgrade for the 1.0-era hardware suite? What possible
incentive does Tesla have to spend resources on enhancements that only benefit cars they've already sold, especially if doing so
competes for resources with the no-doubt-daunting task of getting the new hardware+software actually working (even to current
feature levels, let along the Grand Glorious Promised Future)?
incentive does Tesla have to spend resources on enhancements that only benefit cars they've already sold, especially if doing so
competes for resources with the no-doubt-daunting task of getting the new hardware+software actually working (even to current
feature levels, let along the Grand Glorious Promised Future)?
Personally I'm done making assumptions on what Tesla is doing next. I got some TMC member's cars to go wash for losing a bet with myself . . .
Yes, I think you're right... and for the reasons you mentioned. However, even if Tesla had unlimited development resources they've said that they are pretty much at the limit of CPU power for the AP 1.0 hardware, so there's not much scope to improve it anyway.
I'm sure all cars will still see small iterative improvements in software not related to AP, e.g. the pre-AP cars have received v8.0 which has some small but welcome improvements for them.
deonb
Active Member
8.0 isn't the end - because it is building us towards a bunch of promised features in 8.1.
8.1 might be the last major AP improvement, or it might not. I wouldn't be at all surprised if some of the things they learn building AP2 towards full autonomy trickle back into our cars as significant improvements.
RogerHScott
Active Member
Isn't it only $2,000 more for the same features, only way better? ($3,000 for the old AP, $5,000 for the Enhanced AP.)
The other extra $3,000 is for full autonomy which we knew would never come on the old AP cars.
MarkS22
Member
You'd think they will continue to do upgrades if it helps the next generation platform with fleet learning. The radar and forward camera can still be incredibly valuable for at least a couple years. It'll probably be like the Apple model where it'll get phased out over the next couple years... but it'll get new features from the new suite that are technically possible.
Then again, I was wrong about this announcement not being Autopilot 2.0. In my defense, I think calling it an "unexpected product" was incredibly misleading but I'm still happy it's here.
In any event, this is another reason why I lease.
You'd think they will continue to do upgrades if it helps the next generation platform with fleet learning. The radar and forward camera can still be incredibly valuable for at least a couple years. It'll probably be like the Apple model where it'll get phased out over the next couple years... but it'll get new features from the new suite that are technically possible.
Then again, I was wrong about this announcement not being Autopilot 2.0. In my defense, I think calling it an "unexpected product" was incredibly misleading but I'm still happy it's here.
In any event, this is another reason why I lease.
Agreed. Neither unexpected nor a product.
Not quite sure how I feel - glad they're moving forward, knew it would happen sometime, kinda sad it happened less than two months after the car I waited for more than four months for arrived.
The rep confirmed that it would, however many on the forum discredited the possibility of a sales rep having insider knowledge. He was correct, and I should be fully loaded with AP 2.0 hardware. Question is whether I get the additional full autonomy unlock, which will probably be a "no" or "discount if chosen prior to delivery"
I can see it going the same way as the P85D Ludicrous; where folks that ordered in that limbo period had a special unlock price set for them.
Tesla doesn't try to *actively* screw over their customers... but sometimes they're pretty effective at it anyway
Is your VIN above 163XXX or so? If you look at the option codes in the source, do you see the new APE1 option code?
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