Side note: Elon tweeted yesterday that the 100 kWh pack is probably as big as it will get so you won't have to worry about that 110 kWh anymore.
Oh yes I'm aware of that... But as other people pointed out, as the Gigafactory comes online and starts to produce better efficiency (and less expensive) cells, I could see MS and MX going higher than 100kWh down the road (but not really soon). I think Elon was just saying that they're going to stop pushing for and spending limited resources on higher kWh using their current technology. And I agree with him there.. 100 kWh is basically enough for
most people (but obviously not
all people).
Am I right in recalling that there is supposed to be a Model 3 reveal Part 2 at some point, and when Part 1 occurred the consensus was that Part 2 would happen at about the end of this year? I expect that it's likely the AP hardware capabilities of Model 3 will be made clear at Part 2 of the reveal (it would be hard not to) and that will tell us a lot about the future AP hardware for the Models S and X, since those should be getting capabilities at least as good as of the date the M3 ships. And since that fact will be clear to everyone, Tesla would have to actually be shipping the new hardware for the S and X as of the M3 Part 2 reveal in order not to Osborne their current S and X sales.
So either 1) new AP hardware for the S & X is coming by year end or 2) the M3 reveal Part 2 will be pushed back. And I doubt that they would push it too far back for fear of making people think the M3 is late, which would be bad for the stock and raising capital.
So if I were trying to time getting a MS or MX I would wait to see what happens with the M3 reveal Part 2.
Wow, that's some First Class speculation there, well done! Except for the part where Elon said that they
may use the MS/MX to test new technologies first (which, BTW doesn't mean it will ALWAYS happen that way)... everything else you mention is complete and total speculation by non-Tesla people. Even "consensus" is the same as "speculation." I was at the M3 reveal, and today is the first day I've heard this business about the "consensus" about Part 2 reveal being before the end of
this year. The only reason that even came about was because "the next reveal event" was added as a prize for the latest referral program which ends Oct 15th... so people are saying "oooooh... that mean there
WILL BE another 'reveal' event SOOOON!!!!! OOHHH.. THAT MEANS IT HAS TO BE THE MODEL 3 PART 2 REVEAL -- THIS YEAR!!! YAY!!!". In reality the "next reveal" event could be a new powerwall or SolarCity product, or really anything else. That doesn't mean it will be the Model 3 reveal or that it will even happen this year.
I'll just say what I said before, if you want to try and time a pending order to get AP 2.0 hardware before it's officially announced (or observed in the wild pre-release, like AP 1.0 was), I think you will lose that game. You can speculate and theorize all you want (heck, it's your money after all!)... but in the end, nobody really knows *anything* about Tesla's plans about the next hardware version of AP.. (I sure don't, and I'm not speculating either) so to try and read the crystal ball and Ouija board to divine that information will end up with information as useful as, well a crystal ball or Ouija board.
