Why Autopilot Safety Claims are BS

[Barklikeadog]

100 bucks says he won’t do it.

Won't do what? The 2nd line of my post is where the information was obtained. This type of information is readily available to anyone who wishes to find it.
And thanks for refuting my data with an actual argument or your own numbers.
Do you think it's fake news that Model 3 owners make 128k? Or that they are mostly male? Or that they live in more affluent areas? Or that they are 46 years old? Do you think this is a conspiracy?
Have fun with this one. Thanks for the thumbs down.

Consumer Data - Alesco Data

Our premier consumer data gives you access to 257 million individuals at over 149 million addresses reaching nearly every household in the US.

alescodata.com

edit, by the way you owe someone $100

 

[Barklikeadog]

Good information. Sources?

Also, you say they shouldn’t compare to the average car. Who should they compare to, and why?

It seems to me that you’re complaining of the sake of complaining. This has potential to be a very productive debate with serious insights.

I would suggest you go to NHTSA Data here

Crash Data Systems | NHTSA

www.nhtsa.gov

And run your own metrics. Post the results and a brief explanation of why your comparison is more “apples to apples” than not.

I used a master consumer database with readily available demographic information.

A good comparison would be your safety numbers vs. other luxury auto numbers. Not the average 12 year old vehicle on the road.
Can Tesla say they are 10x better than Volvo? or Benz?
How does the Model X compare to the XC90? Similar vehicle, similar driver...
How does the S or 3 compare to the S/E/C class vehicle? or the BMW 5 series?

Maybe Tesla can say... we are 2x as safe as other luxury autos. Ok, now there you have something.

 

[ProtonSF]

Good information. Sources?

Also, you say they shouldn’t compare to the average car. Who should they compare to, and why?

It seems to me that you’re complaining of the sake of complaining. This has potential to be a very productive debate with serious insights.

I would suggest you go to NHTSA Data here

Crash Data Systems | NHTSA

www.nhtsa.gov

And run your own metrics. Post the results and a brief explanation of why your comparison is more “apples to apples” than not.

Hahaha this is rich. The guy who says "in MY town, everyone who drives teslas are all different ages" is asking for NHTSA data from others. Double-standard much?

 

[ProtonSF]

Ive been around the ins industry long enough. had this discussion with actuaries in the industry (primarily about how to handle FSD and liability)
It's the driver, not the car! Safer drivers tend to pay more for safety features.
A 50 year old homeowner making 150k will have a similarly safe driving record in a toyota as a 50 year old homeowner making 150k driving a model 3.

That is correct. As I stated, and the video stated, Tesla drivers tend to be older and wealthier. Therefore even WITHOUT the existence of AP, Tesla owners are going to be on average experiencing fewer collisions than non-Tesla drivers.

 

[helvio]

Hahaha this is rich. The guy who says "in MY town, everyone who drives teslas are all different ages" is asking for NHTSA data from others. Double-standard much?

Buddy, I think the metrics are fine the way they are. If you think not, make your point. Otherwise I'd be putting words in your mouth. Or words in your keyboard? xD

 

[qdeathstar]

Won't do what? The 2nd line of my post is where the information was obtained. This type of information is readily available to anyone who wishes to find it.
And thanks for refuting my data with an actual argument or your own numbers.
Do you think it's fake news that Model 3 owners make 128k? Or that they are mostly male? Or that they live in more affluent areas? Or that they are 46 years old? Do you think this is a conspiracy?
Have fun with this one. Thanks for the thumbs down.

Consumer Data - Alesco Data

Our premier consumer data gives you access to 257 million individuals at over 149 million addresses reaching nearly every household in the US.

alescodata.com

edit, by the way you owe someone $100

Apparently you didn’t read what I was responding to, you just rolled on with your inane argument.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Apparently you didn’t read what I was responding to, you just rolled on with your inane argument.

apparently you didn't read what I was responding to, and who that person was responding to and who that person was responding to.
You asked for a source of the demographic data (public information by the way)
and I provided.

 

[qdeathstar]

You asked for a source of the demographic data (public information by the way)
and I provided.

no I didn’t bro. What are you even talking about. Data can be cherry-picked to fit just about any narrative.

 

[qdeathstar]

Woof.

 

[ProtonSF]

Another problem is so many Tesla owners are also investors. Massive bias.

 

[daktari]

Well I certainly agree that Tesla is reporting conditional probabilities that are not adjusted for the fact that conditions are not exactly the same in with Autopilot and without Autopilot comparisons. I've complained about that before.

But I think you are way over the top with your reaction.

If a fully controlled comparison was desired, you would have to control for comparing performance of Autopilot on the same highways as without, for the same number of miles as without, etc...

But if you really wanted it controlled you would have to control of individual users, evening out their contribution to both conditions (even for the same road, users that use Autopilot might differ in driving competence to users than don't use it). This obviously becomes a big pain, because assumptions have to be made all over.

The end result is likely a diminished effect of superiority of Autopilot.

Tesla, like basically every other company in the world, will use statistics as marketing. That their results may not be accepted in a peer-reviewed journal doesn't really differentiate them from any other company.

Certainly, if looking for regulatory approval, stronger data would be needed.

I think your worry about crashes 5 seconds after disengagement are a minor concern.

Agree. That's how it's done in medicine. So happy Tesla didn't decide to make a covid vaccine. But then again, that would be well regulated, so we would be safe.

 

[PungoteagDave]

The driver profile argument is silly and unnecessary. I teach graduate level statistics at a major university. The fact is that Tesla's claims AND underlying statistics are absurd and specious, completely unsupportable. The fact is that most accidents occur at intersections and not on highways. The fact is that Tesla's AP and the current iteration of FSD is mostly deployed on highways. No comparison with respect to accident results per mile can be made with ANY statistical validity whatsoever between the two data sets. However, given the fact that most accidents occur on streets and not highways, it is very likely (without any statistics to support this statement) that the reverse of Tesla's claim is true - if one were to parse out the comparable miles for average highway driving nationally, it may well be that Tesla has no advantage, or is at a disadvantage. But NEITHER Tesla nor we have such data, so the gross claim that Elon makes is at BEST a biased guess that Elon himself knows is not true - and not only isn;t true but is false. It is clearly an attempt to twist statistics in a way that unsuspecting fanbois will buy into because that fits their narrative - hence the arguments in this thread. No folks, there is zero, none, nada, zip, zilch evidence that our Teslas are safer than the average car when using its advanced driving features (AP/FSD) based on accident statistics that are supported by accidents per miles driven.

 

[ZeApelido]

The driver profile argument is silly and unnecessary. I teach graduate level statistics at a major university. The fact is that Tesla's claims AND underlying statistics are absurd and specious, completely unsupportable. The fact is that most accidents occur at intersections and not on highways. The fact is that Tesla's AP and the current iteration of FSD is mostly deployed on highways. No comparison with respect to accident results per mile can be made with ANY statistical validity whatsoever between the two data sets. However, given the fact that most accidents occur on streets and not highways, it is very likely (without any statistics to support this statement) that the reverse of Tesla's claim is true - if one were to parse out the comparable miles for average highway driving nationally, it may well be that Tesla has no advantage, or is at a disadvantage. But NEITHER Tesla nor we have such data, so the gross claim that Elon makes is at BEST a biased guess that Elon himself knows is not true - and not only isn;t true but is false. It is clearly an attempt to twist statistics in a way that unsuspecting fanbois will buy into because that fits their narrative - hence the arguments in this thread. No folks, there is zero, none, nada, zip, zilch evidence that our Teslas are safer than the average car when using its advanced driving features (AP/FSD) based on accident statistics that are supported by accidents per miles driven.

I am curious what the national accident rate is on highways.

 

[orion2001]

The driver profile argument is silly and unnecessary. I teach graduate level statistics at a major university. The fact is that Tesla's claims AND underlying statistics are absurd and specious, completely unsupportable. The fact is that most accidents occur at intersections and not on highways. The fact is that Tesla's AP and the current iteration of FSD is mostly deployed on highways. No comparison with respect to accident results per mile can be made with ANY statistical validity whatsoever between the two data sets. However, given the fact that most accidents occur on streets and not highways, it is very likely (without any statistics to support this statement) that the reverse of Tesla's claim is true - if one were to parse out the comparable miles for average highway driving nationally, it may well be that Tesla has no advantage, or is at a disadvantage. But NEITHER Tesla nor we have such data, so the gross claim that Elon makes is at BEST a biased guess that Elon himself knows is not true - and not only isn;t true but is false. It is clearly an attempt to twist statistics in a way that unsuspecting fanbois will buy into because that fits their narrative - hence the arguments in this thread. No folks, there is zero, none, nada, zip, zilch evidence that our Teslas are safer than the average car when using its advanced driving features (AP/FSD) based on accident statistics that are supported by accidents per miles driven.

Hear! hear!

 

[Barklikeadog]

no I didn’t bro. What are you even talking about. Data can be cherry-picked to fit just about any narrative.

I gave you the average income and age of a Tesla buyer.
Basic marketing research 101.
If you believe this to be a lie, then please tell us who the actual Tesla X/S/3 buyers are.

 

[qdeathstar]

I gave you the average income and age of a Tesla buyer.
Basic marketing research 101.
If you believe this to be a lie, then please tell us who the actual Tesla X/S/3 buyers are.

I told someone else, not even you, that you wouldn’t look up the data on the nhtsa website. You haven’t done that yet. You claimed, erroneously, that I owed someone 100 bucks. I also never asked for the source of your data. You keep spouting off non-sequiturs like Rosencrants losing the game.

 

[daktari]

I found some interesting data from the EU. It is in this report: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/road_safety/sites/roadsafety/files/pdf/scoreboard_2020.pdf
It seems that the only statistic is counted by the governments in europe is only accidents with person injury or a fatality.

As one can see, the fatalities at highways are probably around only 9% of the total only. But fatality numbers also count accident where cars are not involved like bicycling and pedestrians. Probably those numbers are low, so we can assume 9% is a decent estimate for car only fatalities.

Then another assumption could be that there is a fixed ratio of fatalities pr accident, independent of location. Then Tesla's reference should subract 90% of the accidents.

But this is probably not correct either, becuase it probably is a much higher rate of accidents in urban areas, while parking, and suburban than on highways.

Look also at the difference in fatalities pr million inhabitant per country. Does it vary this much in the US?

But conclusion is still, the claim from Tesla is just silly and reduces the reputation and trust in the company.

 

[daktari]

Also, from Norwegian insurance companies, we can see the total number of insurance claims reported for cars. The number is pretty high, sadly, the numbers do not show any details of where the damages happen, but they probably have these numbers. These are numbers across different climatic challenges like snow and ice, black ice, slush etc. Norwegian only: Antall skader og erstatningsbeløp

 

[Cheburashka]

Why do people think Teslas are safer than other cars?

To me it appears Teslas have less safety features making them inherently more dangerous, when it comes to accident avoidance.

The reason why Tesla doesn't compare itself to other similar cars is probably that it's worse.

Examples:

- No rear cross-traffic detection
- No blind-spot warning in mirror
- Lane-keeping assist was added fairly recently as far as I remember
- No advanced features such as night vision
- No driver monitoring or drowsiness monitoring system
- Phantom braking when using ACC persists (never had any other car where I have to keep my foot by the accelerator pedal when on cruise control. Dangerous.)
- The efficacy of the AEB at different speeds is still questionable

When it comes to active safety features, I can't really think of any that Tesla has that other cars don't, so why would it be any safer?

 

[Big Dog]

The driver profile argument is silly and unnecessary. I teach graduate level statistics at a major university. The fact is that Tesla's claims AND underlying statistics are absurd and specious, completely unsupportable. The fact is that most accidents occur at intersections and not on highways. The fact is that Tesla's AP and the current iteration of FSD is mostly deployed on highways. No comparison with respect to accident results per mile can be made with ANY statistical validity whatsoever between the two data sets. However, given the fact that most accidents occur on streets and not highways, it is very likely (without any statistics to support this statement) that the reverse of Tesla's claim is true - if one were to parse out the comparable miles for average highway driving nationally, it may well be that Tesla has no advantage, or is at a disadvantage. But NEITHER Tesla nor we have such data, so the gross claim that Elon makes is at BEST a biased guess that Elon himself knows is not true - and not only isn;t true but is false. It is clearly an attempt to twist statistics in a way that unsuspecting fanbois will buy into because that fits their narrative - hence the arguments in this thread. No folks, there is zero, none, nada, zip, zilch evidence that our Teslas are safer than the average car when using its advanced driving features (AP/FSD) based on accident statistics that are supported by accidents per miles driven.

Anyone who took AP Stats in high school should be able see the issues behind cherry-picked the data. Fortunately (for the stockholders), journalists are mathematically-challenged so they have no basis (and few critical thinkings skills) to challenge Elon's claims.