Why I gave up and bought a Prius Prime

[drawfour]

If they have a limit on what they can produce, why would they sell one that gives them no margin over ones that would give them more. Given the current wait time, I would say the one person they lost isn’t going to sink the company. If they make the 35k model for current owners only, are you going to complaint too?

Personally, I would be pissed if they had started out with the SR instead of LR. I want the 310 miles, not 220. I'm willing to pay the $9k extra, knowing that if I top up to 80-90% like is recommended, I'm still going to have more range than a fully topped up SR. Granted, most days I won't be taking long road trips, and the SR would do me just fine. But I absolutely hate driving long distances in our Prius, and that's what we use now. I also want the PUP. Basically, I just wish they'd started with AWD, but I completely understand why they wouldn't.

Yup. I’ve been saying tesla needs to capture a new audience and not just existing customers. There’s only so many and if they keep pissing off new potential customers they will run out of people to sell cars to by next year

They HAVE captured a new audience. Tesla has over 400,000 people waiting for the Model 3. They haven't sold 400,000 Roadster/S/X worldwide, so a bunch of them are new customers. I'm one of them. All of my friends who got in line/reserved online are new customers. I would have loved to have an S or X, but that's just out of budget, unless of course I went with CPO. Even then, for the options I want, it's still out of budget. So yes, Tesla has a ton of new customers.

 

[MDR SEA]

I bought into, and still believe in, the promise of a Tesla for the masses. And me, I'm the masses. I really, really want an electric car. A 35k Tesla is just (barely) within reason for my finances. The other electrics don't appeal like a Tesla. Not at all.

But then my '04 Prius, best car I've ever owned, started calling for maintenance I wasn't willing to invest in at 172k.

And the math, it just doesn't lie. The farther away the ever-receding Tesla delivery date, the less rebate there will be. Put with that the fact that, after rebates and Toyota's aggressive moves to get rid of 2017 cars, the cost of my new Prius Prime got down to $16k. So we're talking probably $10-15k less than the M3. That is one major chunk of change to a lot of people, including me.

The EV mode range of the Prime is nothing major. But the overall mileage with regular charging becomes ridiculously high. It became really hard to justify waiting around for a Tesla. $10-15k will buy an awful lot of other things. Heck, maybe I'll finally get that vintage Gretsch guitar AND a car.

Thing is, the Prius Prime, which clearly has Tesla nods all over the place, is a really great car. It's some stiff competition for the ecology-minded buyer without a trust fund. Tesla is going to have more competition than it thinks.

I hope, like crazy, that by the time I'm ready to relinquish the Prius Prime, there's a Tesla that fits my needs and my budget. Because I'll still be rooting for it, and hoping there's one with my name on it. And I hope all of you who are waiting are rewarded in a big way when you finally get an M3. I'll be jealous.

Interesting.
I gave up and bought a used Tesla S.
It was more than I thought I could afford at the time and I'm really not a luxury sport sedan kinda guy but I took the plunge and I haven't regretted it for a minute.

MDR

 

[slipnslider]

The future of the company depends on selling as many of the "more expensive options to rich customers" as they can before bringing the basic version out. In case you haven't noticed, Tesla's bleeding cash and suppliers can't wait to be paid which is what you seem to want them to do, risking being petitioned into bankruptcy if the wait to be paid is too long. This is all about life and death for Tesla. If you can't afford the current version, then your choice is to wait or look at other vehicles -- not to make it a class issue. Please remember that were it not for those "rich" S/X purchasers, there would be no Model 3 at all.

Yes I forgot. Any good in our lives is only due to the benevolent generosity of those with lots of money.

 

[MIT_S60]

You are right. I should have looked that up. Yes, the PiP had a 4.4kWh lithium battery. I knew Toyota was using NiMH in their hybrids, and when they released the Prime they said something like, "We now have superior lithium technology in the Prime" or something to that effect, which lead me to think lithium was new for the Prime. I assumed wrong.

But I also found their dirty laundry while looking that up. They said the 2012 PiP had 134 HP and weighed 3130 lb. This is 23.4 lb per hp, or more power per pound than the Volt, yet slower. In fact, when Toyota increased the weight, and lowered the power to 121 HP, the car became a hair quicker than the old PiP. Toyota upped the actual HP, and reduced the advertised HP for the Prime, and it's still questionable. Or the Volt has more power than advertised.

The Volt definitely felt like it had more power and was more fun to drive from my test drive a few years ago. I think what I would have liked to have seem changed from the Volt the most was for Chevy to increase the L2 charging speeds to 6.6 kW to increase turnover time at public charging stations (which in turn makes more sense when using chargers that charge by the hour instead of by kWh).

 

[slipnslider]

If they have a limit on what they can produce, why would they sell one that gives them no margin over ones that would give them more. Given the current wait time, I would say the one person they lost isn’t going to sink the company. If they make the 35k model for current owners only, are you going to complaint too?

Where did you hear they make NO margin on the 35k car?

 

[slipnslider]

Which brings us back to the point you cannot grasp: Model 3 is production constrained. By the time it is not, your starting assumptions are longer valid.

Someone cancelling their reservation is a lost sale. That's really not hard to understand.

 

[mattack4000]

Where did you hear they make NO margin on the 35k car?

Math and common sense tells me margin is better on a 50k car than a 35k car. What business is going to turn away from that? Once again you are thinking selfishly, apply some common sense and try again.

 

[slipnslider]

Math and common sense tells me margin is better on a 50k car than a 35k car. What business is going to turn away from that? Once again you are thinking selfishly, apply some common sense and try again.

You said NO margins, though, didn't you? Now you're saying "better" margins.

 

[mattack4000]

Plenty of other people waiting to replace this cancellation. Plus the margin is higher on a 50k car, go do the math

Someone cancelling their reservation is a lost sale. That's really not hard to understand.

 

[slipnslider]

Plenty of other people waiting to replace this cancellation. Plus the margin is higher on a 50k car, go do the math

You do the math. What's 400,000 reservations MINUS ONE? If they were replacing this cancellation that would mean someone else jumps in to take his spot. They're not. They have their own spot in line. Someone leaving the line doesn't put someone else into it. How can you afford a tesla if this concept is confusing to you?

 

[mattack4000]

You said NO margins, though, didn't you? Now you're saying "better" margins.

You can say no margin or better margin, math is still the same.

35k at zero margin = 0 50k at 3% margin on 50k car =1500

35k at 10% = 3500. 50k at 13% = 6500.

They need to sell two 35k model for an average of one 50k model. You can say the difference in margin is 1 or 2%, the difference might be smaller but the result is the same.

 

[N5329K]

Math and common sense tells me margin is better on a 50k car than a 35k car. What business is going to turn away from that?.

A business that says it's mission is to accelerate the transition to sustainable transportation might.
Robin

 

[mattack4000]

At the current rate of 5000 a week, even at 100% and 52 weeks a year, the most they can produce is 260K. It would take them 1.5 years to fulfill the 400K in reservations. How does that hurt the mission? You can't accelerate something you don't have the supply for. The additional revenue would allow them to expand the current production line to sell even more cars.

A business that says it's mission is to accelerate the transition to sustainable transportation might.
Robin

35K x 400000 cars = 14b in revenue
50K x 280000 cars = 14b in revenue

Yes math tells me they can lose 30% of their reservations and still make the same amount in revenue. Since the margin on the 50K cars are better, the difference is actually greater than 30% to put it simply.

Stop sounding so bitter like it is some sort of class warfare, buy a Leaf or a Bolt if you want an EV so bad and can't wait. The full tax credits are available and they are reliable transportation at zero emission.

You do the math. What's 400,000 reservations MINUS ONE? If they were replacing this cancellation that would mean someone else jumps in to take his spot. They're not. They have their own spot in line. Someone leaving the line doesn't put someone else into it. How can you afford a tesla if this concept is confusing to you?

 

[Canuck]

Yes I forgot. Any good in our lives is only due to the benevolent generosity of those with lots of money.

I never said that -- nor would I -- since I grew up poor and earned everything I have through years of hard work and wise investing.

But I guess when you have no response to the specific issues I raise, it's easier and a cop out to turn this into a class issue, which it is not. Again, it's all about Tesla's survival. In the real world, suppliers like to be paid without too much delay and Tesla doesn't want that delay to result in a petition into bankruptcy -- and we know the vultures are circling. Yet for you, it's all about you, although you try to say it's not and it's a class issue.

 

[N5329K]

Stop sounding so bitter like it is some sort of class warfare, buy a Leaf or a Bolt if you want an EV so bad and can't wait. The full tax credits are available and they are reliable transportation at zero emission.

Don't recall sounding bitter. In any event, just to be clear, I am not remotely bitter about Model 3. I hope it all works out, because it really has to. Even if the car on offer was not for me (and the same for Leaves and Bolts).
Robin

 

[mattack4000]

It wasn’t directed at you...

Don't recall sounding bitter. In any event, just to be clear, I am not remotely bitter about Model 3. I hope it all works out, because it really has to. Even if the car on offer was not for me (and the same for Leaves and Bolts).
Robin

 

[Sdunnin]

BATTERY production constrained. One more reason the smaller battery should have shipped first.

I'm not sure it is or was battery raw materials that was the constraint but rather the ability to construct the battery packs fast enough. So I don't think it would have mattered small vs. large capacity.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

You do the math. What's 400,000 reservations MINUS ONE? If they were replacing this cancellation that would mean someone else jumps in to take his spot. They're not. They have their own spot in line. Someone leaving the line doesn't put someone else into it. How can you afford a tesla if this concept is confusing to you?

It depends on the specifics...

If they're the 400,000th in line in the US, and 600,000th line in the world, they could only get the tax credit if Tesla averages 7,500+ cars/week from the time they hit their 200,000th US sale, assuming they do that at the beginning of a quarter, to when the credit expires completely, 6 quarters later. If Tesla can't average 7,500+ cars/week for 78 weeks, it doesn't matter if they cancel now or cancel later. In either case, they won't be able to get the tax credit and that's not a lost sale for Tesla because of how far back in line the person is.

If they're on the edge of getting the tax credit, Tesla has production problems, they cancel because it looks like Tesla might not be able to make delivery before the tax credit expires, and someone who would buy the car either way replaces them, then yeah, that's a lost sale.

If the person replacing them also would only buy if they thought they were going to get the tax credit replaces them, and they can roll the dice and manage to take delivery of the car before the tax credit expires, then that's not a lost sale. If that person can't take delivery before the credit expires and refuses the car, then that's a lost sale, although it might be deferred to some degree if Tesla keeps the build payment.

Regardless, we can't say whether or not it's a lost sale unless we know a lot more about the situation, which is hard because making accurate and precise predictions about stuff like this is hard.

 

[slipnslider]

Regardless, we can't say whether or not it's a lost sale unless we know a lot more about the situation, which is hard because making accurate and precise predictions about stuff like this is hard.

No, we can. Someone who was on the waiting list deciding not to buy, for whatever reason, is a lost sale. There is nothing complicated about this.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

No, we can. Someone who was on the waiting list deciding not to buy, for whatever reason, is a lost sale. There is nothing complicated about this.

I'm not disagreeing with you about losing the first person's sale. What we're describing isn't exclusive.

If someone decides not to buy because they don't think they can get the tax credit, Tesla lost that person's sale. If the car that would have gone to that person instead goes to someone else who decided to make their purchase contingent on getting the tax credit, and they end up buying the car, Tesla gains that sale. The net result is Tesla loses one person's sale and gains another person's sale, which is no change in their net sales.

If the car instead goes to someone who would buy the car regardless of the tax credit, and that bumps someone else who won't buy unless they get the tax credit, then the net is that Tesla lost one sale.