With the production of the 3 starting in July, will it affect the delivery times of the S? Or are they separate factories with separate workers and one will not affect the other? What about shared components, could there be a shortage? Would Tesla prioritize the production of one over the other?
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googleiscoul
3 months maybe, 6 months definitely......
I would doubt it, being different production lines. Plus they've been ramping up for the M3's production. The S an the X will yield their largest profit margins so from that stand point alone I would think not.
Besides you know it's mostly robotic work right? Tesla receives massive shipment of robots for Model 3 production line – first pictures
Besides you know it's mostly robotic work right? Tesla receives massive shipment of robots for Model 3 production line – first pictures
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RogerHScott
Active Member
Wow, the magnitude of the NDA (and basic business ethics) violation involved in that Field Service Engineer for Kuka Robotics taking those photos, publicly posting them, and talking about what he saw at Tesla is just mind-blowing. I imagine Elon was on the phone with the head of Kuka performing some radical proctology for free. I think Tesla would be completely within their rights to require all Kuka employees (and subcontractors) to surrender their cell phones before entering Tesla property.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
/devilsadvocate
Or maybe it's just a controlled leak. Shows nothing of particular interest or sensitivity beyond a stack of robots from a manufacturer that everyone already knows Tesla works with. Gives them some free press, reassures investors and customers that work is proceeding as planned, but corporate gets to keep quiet.
Win-win.
The Tesla factory started life as a GM factory, then it became a joint plant run by GM and Toyota called NUMMI. When GM got into financial trouble, they pulled out of NUMMI and soon after Toyota started looking for someone to take the plant off their hands. Right at the time Tesla was looking for a factory.
In the heyday of NUMMI, the plant produced 500,000 cars a year. I hasn't produced as many as 100,000 a year since Tesla bought it. In other words Tesla has a lot of under utilized space. The Model 3 production lines (2 of them to start) are separate from the S and X production lines. So there are no bottlenecks at the factory. However, there is the possibility that once Model 3 deliveries begin that might impact the capabilities of the delivery teams around the country until they get their staff spun up to the new larger volume of traffic.
Tesla has talked about being ahead of the curve on infrastructure and they might succeed this time, but historically they have tended to lag behind production. There was a bad bottleneck at service centers last year and it wasn't until December they started hiring new staff and got cars moving through. They are doing much better now, but they need to step up the game by close to an order of magnitude to support the Model 3.
I expect the Model 3 to have fewer teething problems than the Model S or X had, it's a simpler car than either of those and Tesla has learned a lot of lessons since designing those cars, but all new cars have some problems and they will need some service center support, but they are also talking about expanding the ranger service again.
In any case, production at the factory will only be minimally impacted by Model 3 production ramp up. Any bottlenecks, if they occur, will likely by somewhere else in the pipeline.
In the heyday of NUMMI, the plant produced 500,000 cars a year. I hasn't produced as many as 100,000 a year since Tesla bought it. In other words Tesla has a lot of under utilized space. The Model 3 production lines (2 of them to start) are separate from the S and X production lines. So there are no bottlenecks at the factory. However, there is the possibility that once Model 3 deliveries begin that might impact the capabilities of the delivery teams around the country until they get their staff spun up to the new larger volume of traffic.
Tesla has talked about being ahead of the curve on infrastructure and they might succeed this time, but historically they have tended to lag behind production. There was a bad bottleneck at service centers last year and it wasn't until December they started hiring new staff and got cars moving through. They are doing much better now, but they need to step up the game by close to an order of magnitude to support the Model 3.
I expect the Model 3 to have fewer teething problems than the Model S or X had, it's a simpler car than either of those and Tesla has learned a lot of lessons since designing those cars, but all new cars have some problems and they will need some service center support, but they are also talking about expanding the ranger service again.
In any case, production at the factory will only be minimally impacted by Model 3 production ramp up. Any bottlenecks, if they occur, will likely by somewhere else in the pipeline.
It could, depending how smoothly the model 3 introduction goes. Wall Street and those who want to see Tesla hiccup or even fail with the model 3 roll out are looking for excuses to criticize Tesla. Tesla clearly doesn't want this problem and its bad publicity at this critical launching. They will marshal forces, people and money to make sure the 3 introduction goes quickly and to plan even if they have to move resources from other programs to the 3.
DIL
Member
I suspect it will have some adverse effects, potentially a production slowdown, surely a diversion of focus and fewer new features in the 6 months leading up to delivery ramp up. Regardless of the factory's square footage, how many cars have been produced in the past, or the automation (which is nothing new for other manufacturers), Tesla has never done this volume before. There will be teething problems. There will be an all-hands-on-deck last minute dash to meet aggressive timeline for Model 3. They'll get there though, and hopefully there will be some time next year to focus on improving the interior materials, fit, finish on Model S.
RogerHScott
Active Member
I felt a production slow down with my Model S. I ordered in early November for February delivery (website said late Jan-early Feb). My DS told me in late Jan. (after checking with the factory) that it was a "solid" Feb. delivery. Then I waited and waited...Then DS tells me "They're going to start your car literally in the next few minutes!" Then more waiting until mid Feb and it's "They're painting your car right now!". And then nothing. DS tells me production has slowed way down because the factory is getting ready for Model 3 production. The plant shut down for a week, and then it somehow took 3 more weeks to finish building my car. Then DS told me I could pick it up in Denver on March 15th. So I definitely think Model 3 production can and will affect build times. This is obviously a huge undertaking for Tesla, and I wish them success. And I don't own stock (yet).
Slightly diff topic: would you be the first batch (not sure if first batch is a 100 or a 1000 or more cars, before a factory tweak is done) of Model3 owners? Knowing that these robots are being installed as we speak for a first run to build cars, ehum - how nervous would everyone be (from engineers in factory to sales delivery to first owners)?
This American Life had a great episode about the rise and fall of NUMMI.
NUMMI
It was cool when I realized Tesla was using that same facility.
I second the recommendation. It's a great story, independent of it being about the factory now owned by Tesla.
