Will the Model 3 be Ludicrously Fast?

[Yggdrasill]

I suspect you're looking at it from the point of view of someone who can afford a higher priced car, not someone who can't. I'm one of those who can't. I'll be royally pissed if after all these years I can't get the car I've been wanting.

First and foremost, I'm looking at it from the point of view of someone wanting Tesla to succeed long term. I'm a long term investor and I believe in Tesla's objectives. And from this point of view, Tesla should focus on building factories, and for that, they need money. If focusing on more expensive variants of the Model 3 allows Tesla to produce 2 million cars in 2025 instead of 1 million, it is the only right course of action.

I'm not saying Tesla definitely will ax the cheapest variant and focus on more expensive variants this time around, I'm just saying it's possible. To maximize your chances of getting a Model 3 you can afford, I would be sitting ready with money for a reservation in March. After all, the first ones to order a 40 kWh Model S did receive their cars. (Though on the other hand, the first ones to order the 60D didn't get their cars, they were just told to get something else.) But if Tesla decides to drop the cheapest variant, I wouldn't lose hope of ever receiving one. The goal of Tesla is still to ensure that everyone has the opportunity to buy a compelling electric car. Though it might be that the car you are looking for might not materialize until 2020 instead of 2017.

 

[S'toon]

First and foremost, I'm looking at it from the point of view of someone wanting Tesla to succeed long term. I'm a long term investor and I believe in Tesla's objectives. And from this point of view, Tesla should focus on building factories, and for that, they need money. If focusing on more expensive variants of the Model 3 allows Tesla to produce 2 million cars in 2025 instead of 1 million, it is the only right course of action.

I'm not saying Tesla definitely will ax the cheapest variant and focus on more expensive variants this time around, I'm just saying it's possible. To maximize your chances of getting a Model 3 you can afford, I would be sitting ready with money for a reservation in March. After all, the first ones to order a 40 kWh Model S did receive their cars. (Though on the other hand, the first ones to order the 60D didn't get their cars, they were just told to get something else.) But if Tesla decides to drop the cheapest variant, I wouldn't lose hope of ever receiving one. The goal of Tesla is still to ensure that everyone has the opportunity to buy a compelling electric car. Though it might be that the car you are looking for might not materialize until 2020 instead of 2017.

If they focus on more expensive cars, it will exclude the masses. The masses not buying cars means no expansion. As for the Model 40, it wasn't in demand because it was cheap. It wasn't in demand because of lack of range, and lack of supercharging capability. The Model 3 promises to be on par with the 70 range-wise, and have supercharging capability. That means there'll be more demand for it than the 40.

As well, if they renege on their promise, that'll be the end of Tesla. The media would have a heyday, trumpet how Tesla is a failure. Then the company will crash and burn.

Sorry to burst your bubble. The $35,000 Model 3 is a necessity, not a nice to have. Those of us who can't afford a $50,000 - $70,000 car will be able to own a Tesla whether you like it or not.

 

[Colsla]

First and foremost, I'm looking at it from the point of view of someone wanting Tesla to succeed long term. I'm a long term investor and I believe in Tesla's objectives. And from this point of view, Tesla should focus on building factories, and for that, they need money. If focusing on more expensive variants of the Model 3 allows Tesla to produce 2 million cars in 2025 instead of 1 million, it is the only right course of action.

I'm not saying Tesla definitely will ax the cheapest variant and focus on more expensive variants this time around, I'm just saying it's possible. To maximize your chances of getting a Model 3 you can afford, I would be sitting ready with money for a reservation in March. After all, the first ones to order a 40 kWh Model S did receive their cars. (Though on the other hand, the first ones to order the 60D didn't get their cars, they were just told to get something else.) But if Tesla decides to drop the cheapest variant, I wouldn't lose hope of ever receiving one. The goal of Tesla is still to ensure that everyone has the opportunity to buy a compelling electric car. Though it might be that the car you are looking for might not materialize until 2020 instead of 2017.

I have to agree with S'toon. They won't be able to continue to raise capital by eliminating the base version, which is something that Tesla has been saying is for the masses. Sure, they will still be able to sell the car, but the size of the market will reduce significantly imo.

There is a debate over whether Tesla will make Founder's/Signature version of the 3, but I dont think Tesla will make people wait 3 years for 35k car after the initial model 3 release in 2017. Their stock will crash if they do that. People have been waiting more than enough. ANOTHER 3 yrs on top of that plus however long they will have to wait to get the car due to a crazy number of orders for the base model will do no good to Tesla.

 

[Yggdrasill]

If they focus on more expensive cars, it will exclude the masses. The masses not buying cars means no expansion. As for the Model 40, it wasn't in demand because it was cheap. It wasn't in demand because of lack of range, and lack of supercharging capability. The Model 3 promises to be on par with the 70 range-wise, and have supercharging capability. That means there'll be more demand for it than the 40.

I have no doubt that that the base Model 3 will be in high demand. But if they can produce say 200k Model 3 in 2018, and they have 200k reservations for higher spec cars and 500k reservations for lower spec cars, which cars are more likely to get priority?

They *could* decide to make the cars in the order they were reserved, but they could just as easily push all the lower spec cars to the back of the line, or eliminate the lower spec options altogether. A compromise might be to make a token amount of lower spec cars while focusing primarily on the higher spec cars. Like, if they say that 10% of the cars they make will be lower spec and 90% higher spec, they'd make 180k higher spec cars in 2018 and 20k lower spec. A new lower spec order would then take over 10 years to deliver. Yet they would have kept their promise to sell the Model 3 at 35k USD.

As well, if they renege on their promise, that'll be the end of Tesla. The media would have a heyday, trumpet how Tesla is a failure. Then the company will crash and burn.

Nope. As long as Tesla sells every car they make, and production keeps climbing 50% each year, the media really doesn't matter.

As I said previously, they've been saying time and again, within this past month even, that the Model 3 will cost $35,000. Sorry to burst your bubble. Those of us less affluent will be able to afford one.

There are many ways to fulfill that obligation without really doing so.

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I have to agree with S'toon. They won't be able to continue to raise capital by eliminating the base version, which is something that Tesla has been saying is for the masses. Sure, they will still be able to sell the car, but the size of the market will reduce significantly imo.

The base Model 3 isn't likely to contribute significantly to Teslas profits. They'll likely be making most/all of their profits from the higher spec cars.

 

[Mad Hungarian]

I'm hoping they manage to work out a scheme where they can afford to mix both the $35K and more profitable performance models into the early production schedule to satisfy all, including image/perception concerns.
However I'm very curious to see what the current split is here at TMC and have started a poll on it, please take a minute to vote: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-Want-Basic-Ludicrous-Or-Something-In-Between

 

[Yggdrasill]

I'm hoping they manage to work out a scheme where they can aford to mix both the $35K and more profitable performance models into the early production schedule to satisfy all, including image/perception concerns.
However I'm very curious to see what the current split is here at TMC and have started a poll on it, please take a minute to vote: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-Want-Basic-Ludicrous-Or-Something-In-Between

How Tesla does things depends entirely on how many reservations they get and what people indicate to Tesla regarding what options they would pick. Probably not even Tesla knows what they will do until the middle of 2016 at the earliest.

 

[Stretch2727]

Not sure if this was posted earlier. Good analysis of what the Model 3 line up could look like.

Will Tesla's Model 3 Compete? - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

On the aluminum versus steel I know Elon made a comment at a interview in early 2015 that the car will be "20% smaller hence 20% lighter". Surprising he made this comment if the car was going to be steel. Using steel would pretty much eat up the weight savings from the size reduction.

 

[Mad Hungarian]

How Tesla does things depends entirely on how many reservations they get and what people indicate to Tesla regarding what options they would pick. Probably not even Tesla knows what they will do until the middle of 2016 at the earliest.

And that's exactly why I started the poll, it'll be interesting to see what the split is here to start.

 

[Colsla]

They *could* decide to make the cars in the order they were reserved, but they could just as easily push all the lower spec cars to the back of the line, or eliminate the lower spec options altogether

well they cant just push the cheaper optioned cars to the back. People have their reservation #s and no one can tell what options they will go for.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Sure they can, and do. When you configure the car, what options you chose determine when your car will be produced.

 

[TEG]

Here:
Elon Musk interview with billionaire investment legend Ron Baron (11.6.15) - YouTube
He said "Will have a similar feel to the S... Great acceleration... Good driving feel... Good handling..."

I don't know how much we should read into that, but "great" > "good", so it sounds like acceleration is perhaps more of a priority than driving feel and handling.

 

[Colsla]

Sure they can, and do. When you configure the car, what options you chose determine when your car will be produced.

hmmm but in the case of X, people already pre-orered with reserv #. and Tesla doesnt know whos gonna order what options.

If Tesla puts lower priced cars at the back of the production line, then whats the point of pre-ordering? Isn't the point of pre-order getting your car sooner than other people?

Tesla may actually do what you are saying, but I don't know how people will react to that..

 

[physicsfita]

hmmm but in the case of X, people already pre-orered with reserv #. and Tesla doesnt know whos gonna order what options.

If Tesla puts lower priced cars at the back of the production line, then whats the point of pre-ordering? Isn't the point of pre-order getting your car sooner than other people?

Tesla may actually do what you are saying, but I don't know how people will react to that..

I, for one, wouldn't react very well if any tax credit goes up in smoke because I got put to the back of the bus because I didn't want (and probably couldn't afford) a fully maxed-out car. I would understand some shifting away from the reservation numbers for things like batching winter-package cars together, etc., but that would be about it.

 

[aronth5]

If they focus on more expensive cars, it will exclude the masses. The masses not buying cars means no expansion. As for the Model 40, it wasn't in demand because it was cheap. It wasn't in demand because of lack of range, and lack of supercharging capability. The Model 3 promises to be on par with the 70 range-wise, and have supercharging capability. That means there'll be more demand for it than the 40.

As well, if they renege on their promise, that'll be the end of Tesla. The media would have a heyday, trumpet how Tesla is a failure. Then the company will crash and burn.

Sorry to burst your bubble. The $35,000 Model 3 is a necessity, not a nice to have. Those of us who can't afford a $50,000 - $70,000 car will be able to own a Tesla whether you like it or not.

It may be a necessity for some and I totally get that but the polls say most people don't expect that. Only 6% felt it would be under $40k.

Check out the poll results

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/41924-POLL-What-will-be-the-average-sales-price-of-the-Model-3

 

[shokunin]

I don't think the production ramp will based off of "options" (tech, autopilot, air suspension) per se, but rather pack size. Model S started with the 85 first, then 3 months later the 60's then another 3 months for the 40's. I configured and reserved both nearly the same time but received my 40 6 months later than my 85. There were some ramp issues with the coil suspension back in the day, but lot of the issues back in 2012/2013 were due to Tesla being new to mass producing cars and needing the cashflow.

The $35K is definitely the target price with Elon quoting "fully operational gigafactory needed". It's just a matter of what is included in the $35K price, my guess is not a lot, similar to pricing out a BMW 3 series. Power seats, navigation, rear view camera, and parking sensors are all optional accessories/packages. Rear camera should be standard though.

 

[Yggdrasill]

And that's exactly why I started the poll, it'll be interesting to see what the split is here to start.

I don't think you'll get very relevant data, though. The nature of this forum is that it attracts enthusiasts, while the more relevant market for the 35k Model 3 is people who have Leafs, i3s, Volts, etc, today, or who just haven't been able to find an EV they find compelling yet. These future owners won't come out of the woodwork until the Model 3 can be reserved.

- - - Updated - - -

hmmm but in the case of X, people already pre-orered with reserv #. and Tesla doesnt know whos gonna order what options.

And yet, if I want a Model X 70D, Tesla has indicated I will need to wait at least an additional year. Was it reasonable for me to think I would be able to buy a Model X with a smaller battery close to launch?

For ~2 years, the wording on the Tesla website was that the Model X would be available with 60 and 85 kWh battery options. Then about a year ago, that wording was changed to "multiple battery options". And now it's launching with 90 kWh battery only. These changes are natural given the demand for the Model X. Tesla is focusing on selling the higher spec models first, and then when supply starts to catch up with demand, then they will introduce lower spec options.

But where does that leave me, as a reservation holder? Well, if I can't stretch my budget to the 90 kWh battery, I will simply have to cancel my reservation. And then in a year, I might order a lower spec Model X, buy a used Model X, or I might wait for the Model 3 (or more likely Model Y).

If Tesla puts lower priced cars at the back of the production line, then whats the point of pre-ordering? Isn't the point of pre-order getting your car sooner than other people?

As the reservation agreement clearly states, the agreement doesn't guarantee a place in line and it doesn't lock in pricing. It doesn't form an obligation for Tesla to sell you a car, and it doesn't form an obligation for you to buy a car.

All the reservation agreement does is increase the likelihood that you will receive a car sooner than those who reserve after you. This all depends on your location and desired spec.

Tesla may actually do what you are saying, but I don't know how people will react to that..

Some will be angry, some will be understanding. But the noise will be drowned out by the joy of the people who receive their cars.

 

[davidc18]

How ever it turns out, we just want them to get it successfully out the door so that the company survives. We love our MS and would like to get another.

 

[shokunin]

I, for one, wouldn't react very well if any tax credit goes up in smoke because I got put to the back of the bus because I didn't want (and probably couldn't afford) a fully maxed-out car. I would understand some shifting away from the reservation numbers for things like batching winter-package cars together, etc., but that would be about it.

The IRS IRC-30D tax credit aka $7500 federal tax credit has a phase out of 1 year after 200,000 qualified vehicles are produced. It just doesn't go poof it slowly goes from 100% credit, an extra quarter at 100% credit ($7500) then the next 2 calendar quarters at 50% ($3750) and another 2 calendar quarters at 25% ($1875) of the credit. The phase begins in the second calendar quarter following the calendar quarter in which Tesla hits the 200,000 vehicle milestone.

https://www.irs.gov/Businesses/Plug-In-Electric-Vehicle-Credit-IRC-30-and-IRC-30D

 

[Trev Page]

I don't think the production ramp will based off of "options" (tech, autopilot, air suspension) per se, but rather pack size. Model S started with the 85 first, then 3 months later the 60's then another 3 months for the 40's. I configured and reserved both nearly the same time but received my 40 6 months later than my 85. There were some ramp issues with the coil suspension back in the day, but lot of the issues back in 2012/2013 were due to Tesla being new to mass producing cars and needing the cashflow.

The $35K is definitely the target price with Elon quoting "fully operational gigafactory needed". It's just a matter of what is included in the $35K price, my guess is not a lot, similar to pricing out a BMW 3 series. Power seats, navigation, rear view camera, and parking sensors are all optional accessories/packages. Rear camera should be standard though.

Rear view camera will be standard, NHTSA requires them on all cars by May 2018
NHTSA Announces Final Rule Requiring Rear Visibility Technology | National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)

 

[dhanson865]

I posted this in a CPO thread earlier but it applies here

------------
1. a new Model S will always have the same or higher capacity battery as the top option than a model 3
2. a used Model S can pay some outrageous price to upgrade the battery pack to the new version no matter what year it is
3. if the upgrade price isn't a preferred option someone will always have the option of trading up to a newer Model S instead of upgrading the older Model S. This will have a cost also.

But ignoring upgrades of existing cars you have the situation where (Model S options by year - a running history - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum)

2012 -2015 (pre April 2105) Model S only had 60 kwh and 85 kwh options
April 2015 to current adds 70 kwh and 90 kwh for Model S (90 kwh confirmed for Model X, unknown when a lower capacity will be added)

now lets extrapolate a little

Say in 2016 we gain a 75 kwh for Model X and Model S and a 95 kwh for both as well.
Say in 2017 Model S/X have a 80 kwh and 100 kwh
Say in 2018 Model S/X have a 85 kwh and 105 kwh

If the Model 3 has a 80% size and gets better efficiency from it then it gets similar range from an 80% sized battery. (you can argue that point in 300+ Mile Model 3?)

So say the 2018 Model 3 has a 85 kwh battery pack that gives it the same range as a Model S at 105 kwh and there is also a Model 3 with a 70 kwh battery pack that gives it similar range to a Model S with a 85 kWh battery pack.

You end up with CPO and used cars in buckets chronologically of

Model S60 pre AP (2012 to early 2014)
Model S85 pre AP (2012 to early 2014)

Model S60 with AP (late 2014)
Model S85 with AP (late 2014)

Model S70 (early 2015)
Model S90 (mid 2015)

Model S75 (2016)
Model S95 (2016)

Model S80 (2017)
Model S100 (2017)

Model 3 - 65 (range similar to a S80) - 2018 version
Model 3 - 80 (range similar to a S100) - 2018 version

Model S85 (2018 version)
Model S105 (2018)


I'll argue that much of the cost savings for Model 3 are in economies of scale and aren't just decontenting. A fully loaded Model 3 will be competitive to a comparably loaded Model S enough so that they'll be demand limited as usual.

I'm expecting the Model S of the second half of 2017 to have a equal pack in terms of range as a 2018 Model 3. I'm assuming the packs aren't interchangeable between S/X and 3 but are interchangeable between S and X.

So in 2018 I'm saying a new Model 3 will be a better car than a 2015 model S just because the motors/drive train components/fuses/inverters/charger/battery pack improvements will be significant and I don't think they'll decontent the interior enough to turn away people based on luxury.

I think this practically guaranteed improvement in range and component quality will be different enough from gas car improvements to make the S vs 3 comparison similar in 2018 vs 2018 but very different in comparing 2018 Model 3 to 2015 Model S.
----------------

Now since that post I've watched the Baron conference interview with Musk and He added a comment about how the S will always be the platform for new tech and the 3 won't have the latest tech. We don't know if that means one year behind or two years behind but until the reveal next spring lets go with the one year back version.

Think about that for your Ludicrous mode question. If a 2015 car has Ludicrous mode a 2018 Tesla Model 3 will have it. Whatever tech is common in 2016 will be on the Model 3 even.

Keep in mind from the 691 HP threads that the battery limit for HP drops as SOC% drops. A model 3 with a smallest battery can still Ludicrous at 100% SOC but will get noticeably weaker at 50% SOC. Don't think that will keep people (Tesla and owners) from bragging about the ludicrous mode, the 0-60 times, etcetera. The Model S might have a bigger battery and might be able to do more runs at a higher SOC% but both S and 3 will do fast runs.

Maybe range scales better than acceleration and the note on the Model 3 should be

Model 3 - 65 (range similar to a S80, acceleration similar to a S70) - 2018 version
Model 3 - 80 (range similar to a S100, acceleration similar to a S90) - 2018 version

But I honestly don't know how well acceleration vs range will scale.