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Will the tires survive a 20k mile lease?

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I’m curious if the OEM 18’s will last the length of a 20k mile lease. Any thoughts? I’m debating getting some winter wheels/tires. If doing so would make the OEM tires survive the lease versus not then I’d rather pay for a set of winter wheels and tires now versus having to buy a set of tires just to turn the car in later.
 
I expect if you're not beating on the thing and using proper inflation you ought be able to get 20k out of em... last time I checked I was about half tread around 12k miles- mostly highway FWIW- car is AWD and I don't bother to rotate tires as evidence suggests it doesn't substantially help... (for RWD it'd be more likely to matter)
 
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With this car, it is possible to eat up tires very fast. It all depends how you drive. On my first rotation at about 6500 miles, the tire guy said, “you’re having too much fun with this car.” So I’m back (mostly) to my pre-Tesla conservative driving style. The car is now at 27000 miles on the original 18s, and at this point I’m forecasting replacement around 35000.
 
I expect if you're not beating on the thing and using proper inflation you ought be able to get 20k out of em... last time I checked I was about half tread around 12k miles- mostly highway FWIW- car is AWD and I don't bother to rotate tires as evidence suggests it doesn't substantially help... (for RWD it'd be more likely to matter)

I have AWD too. I am at 22k and the rear tires are almost to the wear bars. I didn't rotate my tires thinking the same thing you do. Now I probably will have to change out the rear 2 tires first, and the front ones will probably last another 10 to 15k.
 
I'm approaching 21k and just had a Ranger come out to fix a display issue. He mentioned my front tires were at 2/32 and rear at 4/32 so I may want to consider a new set before winter. I rotated once at 11k and had planned to do it again this weekend but will hold off for now. I rarely peel out at red lights but also don't like to come in 2nd... I'm probably more aggressive on the highway.
 
I’m curious if the OEM 18’s will last the length of a 20k mile lease. Any thoughts? I’m debating getting some winter wheels/tires. If doing so would make the OEM tires survive the lease versus not then I’d rather pay for a set of winter wheels and tires now versus having to buy a set of tires just to turn the car in later.
It depends on the driver really. My oems have 10k on them. I still have 5.1mm on the rears that I swapped to the front, and the front that I swapped to the rears had about 6mm. Plenty of life still, I expect 30k. Then again I drive long distance and don’t do a lot of 0-70 pulls. I will rotate every 10k per tesla recommendation.
 
But your original question is a bit like asking " Will there be any Pie left at our house the next day, after thanksgiving dinner?"

The answer is "it depends" for both of those, on a bunch of variables that no one will be able to pin down.

Sure, but if it’s a known thing that nobody gets more than 15k on the OEM tires then I would know there’s no way I’m going to reach 20k. I know people who say they get 40k out of OEM tires on other cars but I figured the weight, torque, etc of the Model 3 may make 20k with 4/32” left a bit tougher.
 
Sure, but if it’s a known thing that nobody gets more than 15k on the OEM tires then I would know there’s no way I’m going to reach 20k. I know people who say they get 40k out of OEM tires on other cars but I figured the weight, torque, etc of the Model 3 may make 20k with 4/32” left a bit tougher.
Yep, it’s definitely an “it depends”, but as shown above, a bunch of us are already well past 20000 with more tread still to go.
 
Sure, but if it’s a known thing that nobody gets more than 15k on the OEM tires then I would know there’s no way I’m going to reach 20k. I know people who say they get 40k out of OEM tires on other cars but I figured the weight, torque, etc of the Model 3 may make 20k with 4/32” left a bit tougher.

There are people who post that they have had to change their 20" Michelin PS4S tires within 10k, and others like me who are at 15k and have plenty of life left in them. With this car more than some others, it REALLY "depends" because of the monstrous torque the car can provide.

If your lease is 20k, my guess is, you will be close to needing new tires. On a lease, it really sucks to have to buy (or be charged for) new tires and then give them back to the "dealer". If you buy winter tires, unlikely to happen during your lease. If you dont, you will likely be close, since most leases require 4/32 which would be tires that people would still drive on if it wasnt a lease. 2/32nds are tires that most would feel need to be replaced as owners, but on leases they normally require 4/32nds.

New tires come with 9 or 10/32 right?