Dumb assed question, as a hydrogen powered car IS an electric car. The drivetrain is electric. The correct question is battery powered electric vs fuel cell powered electric. And the answer at this point is obvious.
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Will the vehicles of the future be powered by electricity or hydrogen?
- Thread starter wayner
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voyager
Active Member
5_+JqckQttqck
Active Member
This article is a little far fetched.
Lets say all the major car manufacturers crank out 1 factory each of BEVs a year (that currently offer BEVs and no new factories are online for the sake of easy math).
Tesla, Hyundai, Jag, Audi, Mercedes, GM, VW (ignoring the Chinese
)7x 500,000 = 3.5 million units a year. Assuming no growth what so ever to meet the green wash PR. So, it'll be 6 years to reach 20 million BEVs.
That's a *sugar* ton of building and investment to build the network for hydrogen vehicles and filling system in 6 years. Only way I see this happening is if existing hybrids can be converted into HEVs.
Using existing electric infrastructure cannot be more expensive than building an entire new network of hydrogen fueling stations. Especially when people install solar on their home roofs and work places.
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As a summary from a research center, it's pretty narrowly focused. It's also a year old. I have perused many of their articles and get the feeling this publication is biased towards hydrogen so may not be the best resource but that's just my at-a-glance feeling.
What about all of us who will never or rarely require an energy support infrastructure outside of our homes? Is it taking that into account or just presuming both types will require the same number of refilling stations/chargers?
What about the increasing number of EV owners that have or will be moving to solar?
Also, it appears the link to the source material is broken or out of date so it's difficult to glean more from the article.
What are the cost inefficiencies of having 2 competing technologies?
If a hydrogen vehicle can be produced and sold for significantly less than a comparable BEV and the infrastructure is in place, I could see it gaining adoption but those are 2 very big if's. Regardless of the comparative efficiencies of rolling things out behind the scenes, cost to the consumer will win the day when everything else is more or less equal.
However, BEV has such a jump at this stage and with billions being invested by other mfg's, it will take a huge push from some of the big players (such as the oil industry) for hydrogen to have much of a hope. It could be done but I don't think the rewards are there to make it feasible for anyone with deep enough pockets.
What about all of us who will never or rarely require an energy support infrastructure outside of our homes? Is it taking that into account or just presuming both types will require the same number of refilling stations/chargers?
What about the increasing number of EV owners that have or will be moving to solar?
Also, it appears the link to the source material is broken or out of date so it's difficult to glean more from the article.
What are the cost inefficiencies of having 2 competing technologies?
If a hydrogen vehicle can be produced and sold for significantly less than a comparable BEV and the infrastructure is in place, I could see it gaining adoption but those are 2 very big if's. Regardless of the comparative efficiencies of rolling things out behind the scenes, cost to the consumer will win the day when everything else is more or less equal.
However, BEV has such a jump at this stage and with billions being invested by other mfg's, it will take a huge push from some of the big players (such as the oil industry) for hydrogen to have much of a hope. It could be done but I don't think the rewards are there to make it feasible for anyone with deep enough pockets.
5_+JqckQttqck
Active Member
Big oil could make a play to keep their network of filling stations and dealership model alive. Lord knows they have deep pockets. Just enough to kill off Tesla? Either way, the demand for their product will decrease as more people test drive BEVs and adapt their life style. It already works for urban/suburban life styles. I love not having to visit a gas station!
It mentions Hydrogen has a 45% efficiency. My own data show a 76% efficiency from wall to km driven on a TM3.
~$480 (4332 kWh used at 0.11c/kW) for 20000kms over 132 charges.
voyager
Active Member
Oil industry will always push the hydrogen cars, as they want the business model to stay.
Having one BEV for last 3 years, I haven't needed to charge outside of my house - ever. I charged outside at the early stage of ownership, when I was more cautious about the range or I was at Ikea anyway so I charged. But I never needed. And charging outside was always free for me (except of once when I tried the KSI charger and I swear I will never use them - but that is whole other story). My other car is regular gas car, and I went for long trips maybe 10 times during those 3 years - all 10 times I could've driven Tesla and use superchargers.
In other words, if I would've had both cars BEVs for last 3 years, I would've contributed to fast charging network business only 10 times (maybe around 300$ together). That's not really good business, right? I used to spend 300$ a month for a gas on 2 cars and now with two BEVs I would spent only 300$ in 3 years.
That is killing the business for multinational corporations. If they promote hydrogen cars, owners would still have to come to buy a hydrogen at the pump and they will still receive at least 300$ a month from a family with 2 cars. Although I believe buying a hydrogen would be more expensive then buying a gas. The efficiency of fuel cell engine and regular gas engine is very similar (maybe fuel cell is more efficient), but the gas making is much cheaper by now. So for us I think, the traveling on hydrogen would be more expensive. And the price will be still controlled by multinational corporations.
I always say, if the price of the electricity goes up the roof, I will install solar panels on my roof and I will generate my own electricity. But if the gas price goes up, I will have no other choice, just to pay the high price.
Having one BEV for last 3 years, I haven't needed to charge outside of my house - ever. I charged outside at the early stage of ownership, when I was more cautious about the range or I was at Ikea anyway so I charged. But I never needed. And charging outside was always free for me (except of once when I tried the KSI charger and I swear I will never use them - but that is whole other story). My other car is regular gas car, and I went for long trips maybe 10 times during those 3 years - all 10 times I could've driven Tesla and use superchargers.
In other words, if I would've had both cars BEVs for last 3 years, I would've contributed to fast charging network business only 10 times (maybe around 300$ together). That's not really good business, right? I used to spend 300$ a month for a gas on 2 cars and now with two BEVs I would spent only 300$ in 3 years.
That is killing the business for multinational corporations. If they promote hydrogen cars, owners would still have to come to buy a hydrogen at the pump and they will still receive at least 300$ a month from a family with 2 cars. Although I believe buying a hydrogen would be more expensive then buying a gas. The efficiency of fuel cell engine and regular gas engine is very similar (maybe fuel cell is more efficient), but the gas making is much cheaper by now. So for us I think, the traveling on hydrogen would be more expensive. And the price will be still controlled by multinational corporations.
I always say, if the price of the electricity goes up the roof, I will install solar panels on my roof and I will generate my own electricity. But if the gas price goes up, I will have no other choice, just to pay the high price.
NeverFollow
Active Member
In case of a leak、LPG is heavier than air so it will stay and accumulate in an underground garage.
Hydrogen at least will move up. Which is better、but inside a tunnel there will be still some risks.
Hyundai outlines fuel-cell vision
2030 and $9B CAD gets one company there (on paper at least) but by then, EV's and their charging infrastructure should be very solid in many countries.
Gas companies are playing both sides. BP, in the UK recently bought Chargemaster, the country’s largest EV charging company, with plans to set up more than 6500 charging points.
“If only the world weren’t governed by the unfair and cruel laws of thermodynamics and economics, the hydrogen economy could rule the world.” — HVACman, comment at InsideEVs.com, July 8, 2015
Perhaps that view came from an old 2006, phys.org article: Why a hydrogen economy doesn't make sense
Toyota had a great platform for moving themselves and their customers into BEV's but they chose the FC path instead. Corporate madness or did they not want to get in the ring with Tesla?
Germany rolled out a couple of Hydrogen trains last year to replace diesel with 14 more by 2021. Similar 1000km range of their counterparts. More expensive initially but cheaper to run. Other countries are also looking at this.
I prefer to fill up in my garage. Once you have done that for a period of time it would be hard to think of doing otherwise, esp in bad weather. Though if autonomous driving ever takes hold, I suppose your vehicle could drive itself and refill overnight with either hydrogen or electrons. But we need solutions now. Hydrogen is taking forever to get going. We don't have forever. We need affordable mass market clean technology immediately yet more and more, governments are supporting big oil and getting further behind in agreed to milestones.
2030 and $9B CAD gets one company there (on paper at least) but by then, EV's and their charging infrastructure should be very solid in many countries.
Gas companies are playing both sides. BP, in the UK recently bought Chargemaster, the country’s largest EV charging company, with plans to set up more than 6500 charging points.
“If only the world weren’t governed by the unfair and cruel laws of thermodynamics and economics, the hydrogen economy could rule the world.” — HVACman, comment at InsideEVs.com, July 8, 2015
Perhaps that view came from an old 2006, phys.org article: Why a hydrogen economy doesn't make sense
Toyota had a great platform for moving themselves and their customers into BEV's but they chose the FC path instead. Corporate madness or did they not want to get in the ring with Tesla?
Germany rolled out a couple of Hydrogen trains last year to replace diesel with 14 more by 2021. Similar 1000km range of their counterparts. More expensive initially but cheaper to run. Other countries are also looking at this.
I prefer to fill up in my garage. Once you have done that for a period of time it would be hard to think of doing otherwise, esp in bad weather. Though if autonomous driving ever takes hold, I suppose your vehicle could drive itself and refill overnight with either hydrogen or electrons. But we need solutions now. Hydrogen is taking forever to get going. We don't have forever. We need affordable mass market clean technology immediately yet more and more, governments are supporting big oil and getting further behind in agreed to milestones.
mtndrew1
Active Member
Cars.com now has off-lease Mirais for sale and they seem to have lost about $40,000 of value in three years.
How long these cars sit on lots without Toyota footing the bill for the very pricey fuel may be a good litmus test for genuine consumer interest in this technology.
How long these cars sit on lots without Toyota footing the bill for the very pricey fuel may be a good litmus test for genuine consumer interest in this technology.
Eco Capitalist
Member
Inefficient madness.
We can burn natural gas to generate electricity, which we then store in a battery to power a vehicle.
OR
We can generate electricity (using any number of methods) which we then use to split hydrogen out of natural gas, which we then store in a fuel cell, which the FCEV will then consume to generate electricity to power the vehicle.
We can burn natural gas to generate electricity, which we then store in a battery to power a vehicle.
OR
We can generate electricity (using any number of methods) which we then use to split hydrogen out of natural gas, which we then store in a fuel cell, which the FCEV will then consume to generate electricity to power the vehicle.
There's are some flawed assumptions in that "study."
"based on a theoretical study of 20 million vehicles running on hydrogen or electricity."
That's assuming that people will buy 20 million HFC vehicles...and the powers that be will build the necessary infrastructure.
It also assumes that the electrical infrastructure isn't already largely built.
It also assumes that somehow the cost of the almost non-existent hydrogen infrastructure will magically come down to less than $2 million per hydrogen station, plus the infrastructure to create and transport hydrogen.
I must note, the source which they cite as a reference to their conclusion doesn't exist. Dead link.
voyager
Active Member
Much appreciation for everyone speaking their mind about the future of car propulsion. Perhaps someone should make a list of all the pros. and cons. Battery pack weight (energy density), lithium scarcity(?) and charging time are definitely cons. battery game-changer: new type of batteries. Found this:
Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Reinvent the Battery
Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Reinvent the Battery
It is amusing to me that there is any debate on this. Hydrogen fuel cell = Betamax. Game is already over. Market has spoken. Most manufacturers have redirected their R&D$ from ICE to BEV.
I think it is more likely that someone invents a brand new type of energy storage device than hydrogen fuel cell survival.
Kind of like how VHS beat Betamax, but now we are all streaming.
But what I’m highly confident of is that the drivetrain will remain electric for a long time... whatever the energy source.
I think it is more likely that someone invents a brand new type of energy storage device than hydrogen fuel cell survival.
Kind of like how VHS beat Betamax, but now we are all streaming.
But what I’m highly confident of is that the drivetrain will remain electric for a long time... whatever the energy source.
5_+JqckQttqck
Active Member
Japan and Korea will be hydrogen based mixed in with whatever BEV people choose to import. Their governments have the will and influence to make that happen. I don't see why Toyota would go HFC instead of BEV without incentives to do so.
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Meanwhile, Toyota produces shameful anti-electric vehicle ad to sell Corolla hybrid
I own Toyota products. I can only presume they are being influenced by their government as otherwise their moves make no sense. All they are doing with their hybrids is breeding more EV customers. Or they have a messed up board that believes it unwise to get into the EV (battery) building game. I used to think they were just over milking their reasonably successful lineup but now I'm not sure what to think. They are definitely taking a big hit in the meantime.
Oh and try using their hybrids in the dead of winter and keeping the cabin warm with the engine heat. Engine gets cold very quick while on battery only and then starts back up in a couple of minutes to ensure it's always warm enough to distribute its heat. Even if you are sitting going nowhere in stop and go traffic.
I own Toyota products. I can only presume they are being influenced by their government as otherwise their moves make no sense. All they are doing with their hybrids is breeding more EV customers. Or they have a messed up board that believes it unwise to get into the EV (battery) building game. I used to think they were just over milking their reasonably successful lineup but now I'm not sure what to think. They are definitely taking a big hit in the meantime.
Oh and try using their hybrids in the dead of winter and keeping the cabin warm with the engine heat. Engine gets cold very quick while on battery only and then starts back up in a couple of minutes to ensure it's always warm enough to distribute its heat. Even if you are sitting going nowhere in stop and go traffic.
5_+JqckQttqck
Active Member
I feel like Toyota and Honda are going through what Nissan went through in the 80's and 90's. They're making cars but they don't really stand out anymore aside from the Prius and Civic. Nissan is a bit ahead of the game with the Leaf but that's still a compliance car when you compare apples to apples to a TM3SR.
Let them fail and fail spectacularly - then they'll restructure and come up with compelling cars again. GM is going through it again now ha.
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