Will Trump affect the sales of electric vehicles in general?

[voyager]

John Voelcker, writing in Green Car Reports, claims we could be on the cusp of learning whether they can or can’t. Admitting there’s nothing but uncertainty surrounding the issue, Voelcker says a worst-case scenario would be a “genuine market test for the appeal of plug-in electric cars.”

Certainly, for almost their whole existence (this century, anyway), EVs have rolled off dealer lots with varying amounts of MSRP-lowering government cash hiding in the glove box. This isn’t just an American problem, if you choose to call it a “problem”. Governments everywhere have used taxpayer money to spur the adoption of EVs, and consumer take-up has always fallen short of predictions.

Are EV Sales Predictions about to Be Put to the Ultimate Test?

 

[DragonWatch]

EVs go beyond politics! This is where the average woman, child and man can directly impact the future of Mother Earth. Not all of us are addicted to money, religion or sex. Buying an EV is about rebellion against Jesus, U know the conservative guy with a heart of coal and bleeds oil.
The average buyer of EVs cares about the family, clean air, a habitable planet and is responsible for their own actions. Despite how gD stupid the ICE human is the EV human cares about the mentally afflicted too. There are more of us than there are of them. Besides, burning the trash would only put more carbon into the atmosphere.
My center core is that my responsibility is to leave this place better than I found it, not trash it.

 

[Menifeer]

The real push-back against EVs will likely be from those who will be losing their jobs.

An IC engine has hundreds of parts and accessories (castings, bearings, hoses, pipes, etc., etc.) that are produced on a myriad of assembly lines in communities across the nation. Each of those require suppliers and workers to keep the lines going. All those people support other local businesses and transportation services. Transmissions are almost as complicated, requiring additional foundries, bearing and gear manufacturers, etc. Shipping all those parts to final assembly points is an industry in itself.

In comparison, EVs need many, many fewer propulsion parts and far fewer workers/factories to produce them. Servicing requirements will also be dramatically reduced. That’s good news for EV buyers, but won’t be welcomed by all those people whose jobs will no longer be supported. Arguments about overall efficiency and environmental benefits will fall on the deaf ears of those who no longer have a job.

I expect the Trump administration will move to support the current manufacturing base by reducing or eliminating the financial incentives currently enjoyed by the EV industry.

 

[SuperDragon]

You cant stop EVs at this point its just a matter of how long, not if.

 

[DragonWatch]

Organics have grown in popularity despite farmers like my brother-in-law farmer dependent on chemical. Remember agent orange? Brother-in-law still to this day loves his chemicals. He has an egg size tumor attached to his brain, my sister has a leaky gut, niece has ear/balance issues and the nephew has a cigarette size implant defibrillator (age 33) and they still love their chemicals, trump and Jesus.

Organics have grown in popularity without government subsidies. Organics have grown in popularity.
I enlisted during Vietnam, my brother-in-law joined the reserves. The reserves in those days met once a month drank beer all weekend then collected their check. During my career I had no respect for the reserves - none.

Now, as to your point about keeping the supply lines for ICE vehicles operational. Since the George W depression thousands of white boys have committed suicde because they cannot financially support their family or achieve the American Dream. Meanwhile the minority's have sucked it up as the same-o-thing, and will continue forward.

EVs will continue to grow in popularity despite the fossil fuel industry.

If I am right the gD stupid people will get to see their grandchildren and great grandchildren. Worst case I am wrong and the gD stupid people can die holding their breath. Do I care if I live longer than the outlaw family members? No I just want as much time as possible with my grandpups ~ they are four and six. A 3d cousin of mine is an author of children's books. When he met the pups a month ago he signed a book for each of them and told them what he does for a living. The four year old looked up and said, " you must have a lot of time on your hands."

I am the last dragon rider, I have always striven for the good, not 100% successful but I will never give up and I will NOT hate U because of my religion, politics or philosophy.

I could; however, use a few more good centered humans.

 

[3Victoria]

EV sales failed before because no one had built a compelling EV --- they were always performance, range, and aesthetics limited. Legacy car companies did not want to make such a car, and certainly not at a compelling price --- they wanted to continue the myth that such cars could not be made.

Tesla has demonstrated that a compelling EV can be made at a fair price that includes a profit. The Model 3 will ice that cake (pun intended).

 

[WannabeOwner]

That’s good news for EV buyers, but won’t be welcomed by all those people whose jobs will no longer be supported

There is a counter argument that being the world leader in EV brings the long term benefit for jobs, whereas subsidising ICE & ICE-jobs (Ditto Coal etc.) will cause all the EV tech, development and R&D to move overseas - which means that once ICE does die a death then all those subsidised jobs go anyway and also that the country then has no centre-of-excellence in the new EV tech and no easy path to migrate some of those jobs to new tech. I suppose foreign EV car companies set up local manufacturing at that point ...

There is also the health care cost of pollution

Depends whether politician takes a Long or Short view, and that might depend on Ego-size and Megalomania of the President and to what extent he worries about how History will perceive his term in office ...

... IMHO subsidising ICE now will be looked at by History as being a dumb move.

I wonder if the rest of the world will be brave enough to sanction USA if Trump pulls out of Paris agreement?

 

[voyager]

I wonder if the rest of the world will be brave enough to sanction USA if Trump pulls out of Paris agreement?

Former French President Sarkozy was already hinting at that.

 

[Brovane]

The Trump Administration is going to find that reality is different once in the office.

For EV subsidies we are quickly passing the point that subsidies are no longer needed. It could be argued that for the Model S and X that subsidies that little bearing on the overall success of the vehicle. The original intention of the EV subsidies was to stimulate early production of EV's so we would see the price drop on the entry point of the vehicles. We are seeing that happen right now and the price point for batteries has come down considerably even in the last 5-years and the Chevy Bolt is a product of that and the Model 3 will be in the near future.

At this point the elimination of Federal EV subsidies will only serve to help Nissan, Tesla and GM in the long run and make it harder for the current large auto-makers to enter the EV market. This is probably counter to what the Trump Administration wants. I suspect that any talk of the early elimination of the EV subsidies by Congress or the Trump Administration will bring some quiet conversations from the established auto-maker lobbyists as to why this is bad idea.

A interesting counter-point about Trump and Coal. Several days ago the WSJ ran a interesting article about Coal. A side effect of the expansion of the fracking in the US has been the abundance of NG and how cheap NG is now in the US. It is so cheap that the US has started exporting it to other countries and plans are in the works to build LNG terminals at various ports in the US. What this means for power companies is that Coal is no longer competitive with NG. So not only are NG plants easier to build than Coal plants but they are cheaper to run. This doesn't bode well that even with the easing of restrictions by the Trump administration we are going to see a resurgence in Coal,the economics are working against Coal now.

 

[22522]

Perhaps Trump polarization will drive EV sales independent of incentives?

 

[eye.surgeon]

EVs go beyond politics! This is where the average woman, child and man can directly impact the future of Mother Earth. Not all of us are addicted to money, religion or sex. Buying an EV is about rebellion against Jesus, U know the conservative guy with a heart of coal and bleeds oil.
The average buyer of EVs cares about the family, clean air, a habitable planet and is responsible for their own actions. Despite how gD stupid the ICE human is the EV human cares about the mentally afflicted too. There are more of us than there are of them. Besides, burning the trash would only put more carbon into the atmosphere.
My center core is that my responsibility is to leave this place better than I found it, not trash it.

This smug nonsense will do more to hold back widespread acceptance of EVs than Trump ever will.

 

[voyager]

It was too late to change the poll to limit everyone to just two choices.
The poll can hardly be called representative.

 

[larmor]

EVs will increase in production and sales in many other countries, for example in China and Korea. The cost savings in manufacture and servicing are hard to ignore in the lower priced car segment. If tied to home solar, lots of people can avoid long lines at petrol and natural gas pumps, where lines can be long when the gas market fluctuates. This is commonly seen in Pakistan, and assume it would be seen in India as well.

Even with oversupply of gas, European gas prices remain higher than US overall.

Providing an easier roadway for US manufacturers to avoid EVs will put US auto manufacturers behind by 5 to 10 years.

 

[lklundin]

Legacy car companies did not want to make such a car, and certainly not at a compelling price --- they wanted to continue the myth that such cars could not be made.

Tesla has demonstrated that a compelling EV can be made at a fair price that includes a profit.

The legacy car makers do not want to build EV's, which require much less maintenance (which in most countries is done by the manufacturer) and which are making very large investments in production capacity of engines and what not obsolete.

But since their high margin, luxury segment is being taken away by Tesla they now are forced to react, with their own attempts at a BEV.

So they are only doing it reluctantly and because they can see that their profits will dwindle as the technologically superior EV becomes increasingly affordable.

 

[voyager]

Trump said to the NYT that he's open to new insights regarding the climate. So, EVs may not be put on a back burner.

 

[McRat]

The legacy car makers do not want to build EV's. ...

Car makers will build what you will buy. It's how business works. EVs would have already hit 10% of sales in 7 years if we bought EVs. But we don't.

If you buy them, they will make them unless the Government stops it. If you would buy a $10,000 EV, they would make one, except the Federal Government forbids it. It won't meet their safety standards, and you must buy their safety equipment including baby harnesses when you are single and 70 years old. Run flats? Yes, you need $600 worth of TPMS crap anyhow. Our schools are so bad today, nobody can read a tire gauge.

We made a conscious decision to drive the car prices up, and increase their weights so the consume more energy/fuel. We want bad economy and EV range and are willing to pay a premium for it. Luckily deaths are climbing as we add more safety equipment, so at least there will fewer drivers clogging the roads.

 

[ecarfan]

Luckily deaths are climbing as we add more safety equipment, so at least there will fewer drivers clogging the roads.

What a bizarre statement, and untrue. See List of motor vehicle deaths in U.S. by year - Wikipedia

Quote: "The number of deaths – and deaths relative to the total population – have declined over the last two decades. From 1979 to 2005, the number of deaths per year decreased 14.97% while the number of deaths per capita decreased by 35.46%"

That trend has continued through 2015.

And things are not as simple as "car makers will build what you will buy". But I am joining #OptOutside and leaving for an all day hike on this beautiful day...

 

[lklundin]

Car makers will build what you will buy. It's how business works. EVs would have already hit 10% of sales in 7 years if we bought EVs. But we don't.

Only if they can maintain their profits in doing so.

The error in your reasoning is that unlike Tesla, the traditional car makers have made huge investments in production capability that churns out ICEs with all their accessories.

The traditional car makers will not be able to maintain their profits if they just switch to selling BEVs, because they would need investments in battery and motor production capability (and know-how). At least outside the USA, the car makers also get a lot of their profits in servicing their cars, which is going to be less for a BEV.

That's why they have just built compliance cars. Only now that Tesla has already become the leader in the luxury vehicle segment are they reacting.

 

[lklundin]

What a bizarre statement, and untrue. See List of motor vehicle deaths in U.S. by year - Wikipedia

Quote: "The number of deaths – and deaths relative to the total population – have declined over the last two decades. From 1979 to 2005, the number of deaths per year decreased 14.97% while the number of deaths per capita decreased by 35.46%"

That trend has continued through 2015.

I fear that this very satisfying trend is being challenged by distracted drivers, who seem to allocate a minimum of their attention to the driving, while doing other things with their smart phone.

As such I think the regulatory approval of self-driving cars need to happen as soon as possible, to save more lives.

Apologies for pitting mere anecdotal impressions against a massive body of statistics.

 

[McRat]

What a bizarre statement, and untrue. See List of motor vehicle deaths in U.S. by year - Wikipedia

Quote: "The number of deaths – and deaths relative to the total population – have declined over the last two decades. From 1979 to 2005, the number of deaths per year decreased 14.97% while the number of deaths per capita decreased by 35.46%"

That trend has continued through 2015.

And things are not as simple as "car makers will build what you will buy". But I am joining #OptOutside and leaving for an all day hike on this beautiful day...

Traffic Deaths In 2015 Climb By Largest Increase In Decades

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/16/b...ns-blamed-for-rise-in-traffic-fatalities.html

Seriously, I have a over a million miles behind the wheel, and about a quarter million on 2 wheels.

I've watched the parade, and we were are losing our ability to drive. Genetics probably. Safety equipment allowed people with the Suck At Driving gene to mate with other Suck At Driving partners and created a race of SuperSuck At Driving hybrid humans.