Will you buy FSD before the $1,000 increase on July 1st?

[Stickboy46]

I mean, it's not though.

Because again their notion is the "finished" version is worth a ton more than $7000 or $8000.

So every time the deployed version gets nearer the finished version- the price is going to go up to get nearer what they think the finished version is worth.

Pretty simple idea- even if you disagree with how much they value each bit of it.





Since there's no commercial release of finished FSD it's basically impossible for you to judge how much it's worth- unless you just think any self driving no matter how good is of very little value.... you're certainly entitled to that opinion but don't think you'll get a lot of subscribers to that particular newsletter.

You keep stating your opinion like it's facts. Seems to be your theme, so I'll have this as my last response to you in any thread.

Value is subjective.

They set the price and are raising it. Though not matter how much you try to justify it, it's NOT because they added features. Those features were included just not released. So they are increasing the price of the exact same product. They are allowed to do that as it's their product. I'm allowed to say i don't agree with it. Pretty simple idea.

It's not impossible for me to place my internal value on what Tesla has defined as their Finished FSD. It's clearly stated.

Yet again, simple concept that you either can't or don't want to understand:

FSD at 7k or 8k is worth it if my only other option is ZERO automation. Its not though. FSD at a 7-8k increase over the included autopilot (which includes about 90% of the useful features for me of FSD) is not worth it IN MY OPINION. Looking at the thread, most people are subscribing to that.

 

[SammichLover]

So you are right, stop signs are included in the 7k. So then why are they raising the price?

Because it is going to be improving even further, going ahead.

And you shouldn’t be surprised when Tesla starts ratcheting the monthly rate in the future even for prior subscriptions, too.

...but there is a very good case to make why it might be cheaper in the future for the subscription

That’s the delusion we keep getting here.
Not when they are already knocking out $7K sales at roughly %30 conversion on new sales.

 

[Knightshade]

You keep stating your opinion like it's facts.

Literally nothing in my post was one of my opinions- so....no.

I posted teslas publically stated opinion though.

That they feel completed FSD is far more valuable than the current price being asked for it.

And thus the reduce the "discount" on that full price shortly after they add any feature that moves it nearer to completed.


I am not Tesla, so ascribing their opinion to me is an error of fact on your part.

Value is subjective.

Sure.

In their subjective opinion, completed FSD is worth a lot more than $7000.

But that isn't the thing they are selling today.

You can tell, because the thing they are selling today isn't complete.

They set the price and are raising it.

Nope.

They set the price for the EXISTING feature set- and the promise you will get more later.

There's some discount built into the fact some of it is a future delivery.


As more of it becomes current delivery, that discount goes down, and the "right now" price goes up.


Not sure how you keep misunderstanding this?

Though not matter how much you try to justify it, it's NOT because they added features.

I mean... it literally is

Those features were included just not released.

No- those features were PROMISED TO BE ADDED LATER.

So you got a cheaper price since at purchase you'd only recieve PART of the total package.

Now that more of it is delivered immediately, the price is higher. Less of a discount off what they believe the total delivered package is worth.



January of 2020 you could buy 5 specific features, and 2 promises, from Tesla- in a package called FSD- for $7000.

July of 2020 you can buy 6 specific features, and 1 promise, from Tesla- in a package called FSD- for $8000.


Where are you getting confused between the two, specifically?

So they are increasing the price of the exact same product.

Except, they objectively are not. See above.

I'm allowed to say i don't agree with it.

Sure you are.

You seem to refuse to understand why they're increasing the price though- and insisting their own stated reason for doing so isn't what's happening.

Which is kinda weird.

FSD at 7k or 8k is worth it if my only other option is ZERO automation. Its not though. FSD at a 7-8k increase over the included autopilot (which includes about 90% of the useful features for me of FSD) is not worth it IN MY OPINION. Looking at the thread, most people are subscribing to that.

Then I would suggest you don't buy it.

And continue not buying it even more as the price continues to go up in the future as more features get improved or added- because Tesla has been clear that it WILL continue to go up in price as they add features.

 

[Stickboy46]

Because it is going to be improving even further, going ahead.

And you shouldn’t be surprised when Tesla starts ratcheting the monthly rate in the future even for prior subscriptions, too.

That’s the delusion we keep getting here.
Not when they are already knocking out $7K sales at roughly %30 conversion on new sales.

Then i wonder why nearly every Major software manufacturer is switching to subscription. Hint: It's more profitable in the long run. Tesla needed the funding up front for this. Over time they will want to switch it to a more sustainable LONG term approach. Getting a one time chunk < getting a subscription fee for 10-20 years off the same car.

 

[Stickboy46]

Literally nothing in my post was one of my opinions- so....no.

Yea ... ok ...

And added to the ignore list. You aren't capable of a normal discussion.

 

[SammichLover]

Then i wonder why nearly every Major software manufacturer is switching to subscription. Hint: It's more profitable in the long run. Tesla needed the funding up front for this. Over time they will want to switch it to a more sustainable LONG term approach. Getting a one time chunk < getting a subscription fee for 10-20 years off the same car.

Software has been “subscription” for decades. They used to be called “upgrades”, with different price for new customers. It isn’t so much a change as a formalizing that avoids people skipping.

Also, the market overall of buy-once was crashing as competition drop the prices way down.

Plus it is generally a market that isn’t limited by hardware platform count. “Conversion rate” in that way, outside of highest marque titles on game consoles, isn’t anything like FSD on Tesla’s physical “platform”.

And how many if those marque titles are free with only subscription?

Even subscription heavy titles on game software often has money down upfront component.

Short version: Your argument only serves to demonstrates you misunderstand BOTH of those markets.

 

[Knightshade]

Yea ... ok ...

And added to the ignore list. You aren't capable of a normal discussion.

Notice how you are the guy who keeps claiming untrue things (ascribing Teslas stated opinion on FSD pricing as just being "my" opinion for example)- and when called on it- or asked to provide anything to support your claim- you complain the other person is being unreasonable?

So I'm unsure you're clear on how normal discussion works.

 

[SammichLover]

Yea ... ok ...

And added to the ignore list. You aren't capable of a normal discussion.

ROFL

 

[Stickboy46]

Software has been “subscription” for decades. They used to be called “upgrades”, with different price for new customers. It isn’t so much a change as a formalizing that avoids people skipping.

Also, the market overall of buy-once was crashing as competition drop the prices way down.

Plus it is generally a market that isn’t limited by hardware platform count. “Conversion rate” in that way, outside of highest marque titles on game consoles, isn’t anything like FSD on Tesla’s physical “platform”.

And how many if those marque titles are free with only subscription?

Even subscription heavy titles on game software often has money down upfront component.

Short version: Your argument only serves to demonstrates you misunderstand BOTH of those markets.

No a subscription is not an Upgrade. A subscription is something that if you stop paying you lose access to the software. An Upgrade is something you can choose to not pay to get new features but if you don't you still get to keep what you already have. Those are not the same thing.

Example:
Microsoft Office vs Office 365.

Microsoft Office comes in Upgrade editions (2012, 2016 etc etc). If I have Office 2012, I can continue using Office 2012 for as long as I want without paying for 2016.

Office 365 is a subscription. I pay a Yearly fee and always have the newest version. If I choose to stop paying, I don't get to keep using my old version of it. I have zero access to it.

Office as an outright purchase is the more expensive than several years of Office 365. Microsoft wants you to buy Office 365 ... why? It's the cheaper of the 2 options. I can stop at any time and stop paying them. They know in the long run, they will make more money by having that continual income.

So Yes, one of us is misunderstanding a market. It's not me

 

[Knightshade]

A subscription is something that if you stop paying you lose access to the software.

That totally depends on the terms of the subscription.


For example if you had Xbox Live Gold on an Xbox 360, and you downloaded that months free "games with gold" games.... and then next month cancel your subscription- you STILL KEEP THE GAMES and can play them too (though only offline).

On the other hand- the Playstation Plus paid subscription, if you cancel it you lose access to your monthly "free" games you previously downloaded.

Different subscription, different terms.

 

[hlin07]

A reasonable person would not buy FSD unless he/she has money to burn or is just trying to support Tesla's mission.
Average person owns a car for close to 7 years. For those that bought the FSD two years ago when model 3 first came out, they have an average of 5 years remaining. GOD KNOWS how much longer will the development take before all features of FSD will be released. On top of that, all the regulations from federal to state will no doubt extend the timeline even further. And last, don't forget about depreciation. NO ONE is going to buy your car that has FSD at the sticker price. The 7k you paid will be worth roughly half that in 5 year. For those that paid FSD in 2018, FSD will be worth half if they're to sell their car in 2023.
Again, FSD faces multiple hurdles and will HIGHLY UNLIKELY to be available in the foreseeable future. Robo Taxi... haha, you can forget about it.
Last, use the 7k to buy tesla stock. The chance of tesla stock appreciating is FAR GREATER than FSD becoming available. that 7k in tsla may be 10k in a year and poof you can buy FSD at 8k then when it's implemented and still come out on top.

 

[SammichLover]

A reasonable person would not buy FSD unless he/she has money to burn

A reasonable person would not by chairs unless he/she has money to burn. You can easily sit on the floor, or perhaps a cushion if you have tile/wood floor, instead. Really unless you have money to burn just live in a tent, the earthen base under the floor will be a lot softer than if you have a tile/wood floor.

 

[Dan203]

There isn’t one.

There is...

People are paying $7-8k upfront right now for the promise of what it will do in the future. People paying for the service will be paying for what it can do right now. And right now the feature is a lot less valuable then it will be when it's fully functional. So for right now a much lower monthly price, for a service that you'll never own, makes sense. They can slowly raise the price as more functionality is added, just like they're doing with the upfront pricing. But unlike the upfront pricing the monthly price hikes will affect all users, and they'll know exactly how much it will generate and how it might affect cancelation, so they'll be better able to manage those increases to maximize profits and minimizing cancellations.

Plus you have to consider that as they sell more cars to less tech savvy/future thinking customers they're going to sell less and less of these $8k packages. If they make the monthly service cheap enough they'll be able to onboard a much larger percentage of those buyers, creating more profits long term. I don't know what the exact number will be, but I do know that looking at the short term loss of $8k from a small percentage of users isn't the way to calculate it. You have to consider that these cars could be subscribed, by one owner or the next, for 10-20 years and that a larger percentage of owners will be willing to subscribe to an inexpensive monthly service. So using the current package price as some sort of divisor isn't the way to calculate it. You have to consider that they'll have more users and a longer period of time to recoup those same dollar amounts.

There is a reason why most big, previously expensive, software packages have transitioned to the software as a service model. It's more profitable long term. There was a time when each piece of Adobe software cost $500-$900. Now you can buy a suite that includes every piece of software they sell for $40/mo. If you simply look at what they use to make off the same software (i.e. thousands of dollars) it seems like a bad deal for them to only charge $40/mo for that same thing. But they were able to both increase the number of users and keep people paying perpetually for the newest version, rather then waiting 2-4 years between upgrades, which increased their profits overall.

Someone inside the company who is much smarter than me, and with much better numbers, will ultimately decide the price they're going to charge. But I'm willing to bet right now that it's going to be much lower then a lot of you expect. Low enough that it's likely to upset a lot of people who paid for the full package.

 

[CertLive]

No because one of the reasons I bought my model 3 was for FSD on city streets end of 2019. Until this works on UK roads I will not buy into it as autopilot does everything else.

 

[Dan203]

A reasonable person would not by chairs unless he/she has money to burn. You can easily sit on the floor, or perhaps a cushion if you have tile/wood floor, instead. Really unless you have money to burn just live in a tent, the earthen base under the floor will be a lot softer than if you have a tile/wood floor.

False equivalency. There is nothing about FSD, even if it were fully functional, that would improve your quality of life as much as upgrading from a tent to house would. They'e in two completely different categories.

 

[SammichLover]

No a subscription is not an Upgrade. A subscription is something that if you stop paying you lose access to the software.

The "stop working" was never so abrupt, but it has long been there. The software needs an update because the underlying OS updated, and won't work anymore. Or you add new peripherals, etc. The subscriptions now are far more formalized on this, part of it definitely was forcing keeping up your subscription rather than using enticement of new stuff (data, features, etc) but basically it played out the same.

EA Sports line of games is a archetypal example of having been functionally "subscription" for at least 20 years. So very tiny modifications year-to-year (usually the same bugs repeating), and new release like clockwork. There are even parts back in the early 2000's that did stop working after a while, when EA turned off the server-side support.

There are some differences but this has really long been like this.

And at the end all that semantic dancing on your part doesn't address how FSD is most certainly nothing like all this software stuff that was driving the change to more formalized subscription model.

 

[SammichLover]

False equivalency. There is nothing about FSD, even if it were fully functional, that would improve your quality of life as much as upgrading from a tent to house would. They'e in two completely different categories.

So the chairs part is fine?

The absurdity is highlight what you've missed the point of the absurdity of your arbitrary judgement of "reasonable" and the emptiness of your "money to burn", that you miss just how much of our purchases are digressional.

I wouldn't suggest FSD to anyone that has trouble fitting it into their budget. It isn't a "money maker". But that's really true of personal vehicles in general, definitely of a new Tesla (because of the place in the market where it falls). It is true of so many things in our 1st world lives, making your "money to burn" judgment so empty.

 

[Dan203]

The "stop working" was never so abrupt, but it has long been there. The software needs an update because the underlying OS updated, and won't work anymore. Or you add new peripherals, etc. The subscriptions now are far more formalized on this, part of it definitely was forcing keeping up your subscription rather than using enticement of new stuff (data, features, etc) but basically it played out the same.

EA Sports line of games have been functionally "subscription" for at least 20 years. There are even parts back in the early 2000's that did stop working after a while, when EA turned off the server-side support.

There are some differences but this has really long been like this.

And at the end all that semantic dancing on your part doesn't how FSD is most certainly nothing like all this software stuff that was driving the change to more formalized subscription model.

EA is another good example. They offer their EA Access service now, which is only $5/mo and gives you access to dozens of games that people might have otherwise paid $60/ea for resulting in hundreds of dollars a year in sales. Yet they're only charging $60/year for the service. How can they do that? Because the low monthly fee allows them to attract more users and ultimately get more dollars from those users long term. Same applies to the MS game pass, or the MS 360 office subscription, or any of the other hundreds of companies offering software as a service. The experiments are over, it's a proven business model, Tesla is actually late to the party.

 

[CertLive]

So the chairs part is fine?

The absurdity is highlight what you've missed the point of the absurdity of your arbitrary judgement of "reasonable" and the emptiness of your "money to burn", that you miss just how much of our purchases are digressional.

I wouldn't suggest FSD to anyone that has trouble fitting it into their budget. It isn't a "money maker". But that's really true of personal vehicles in general.

Correct cars do not make money... well unless they are a Taxi then it has a different value which is the RoboTaxi @tm@ thing. Otherwise yes you are sponsoring the development of such abilities with the possibility of the car not being able to do it.

 

[SammichLover]

Correct cars do not make money... well unless they are a Taxi then it has a different value which is the RoboTaxi @tm@ thing. Otherwise yes you are sponsoring the development of such abilities with the possibility of the car not being able to do it.

I bought FSD because the features were nice. They had value to me. As shipped at the time just short of the price tag, with the announced at the time stoplight feature putting it way over the "buy" line.

This wasn't a charity. This wasn't some sort of "taking a flyer on the future", or anywhere around "sponsoring" type of thing. A very modest gamble that Tesla would come through on the stoplight feature in a timely manner, that's all. Something that I read as a very solid, low risk bet given how well they'd progressed to that point.