Recent content by davepsilon

Pfizer vaccine requires two doses and shipment and storage using dry ice (or ultra cold refrigerator). So still room for single dose, more temperature stable options. But twenty million Pfizer doses planned by year end, assuming emergency auth is granted later this month, so that’s more than...

Is that consistent with a bradykinin hypothesis for the disease, that steroids would help?

If you look at the number of reported cases from testing people it suffers quite a bit from how much who is getting tested changes over time. Waste water testing seems to be an interesting avenue for surveillance testing. There is a large project conducting this testing near Boston MWRA -...

US Stock market valuations suggest a belief the current underemployed rate (16%) won’t stick around long OR that the fed’s printing will make up for it. With school not back to full time in person sessions I don’t see how productivity and employment can return to ‘normal.’ Here in the...

Passing on the savings from scaling up production makes it much harder for competitors to enter the EV market as well. Tesla owning the EV market is probably good for shares. Not sure it’s good for the planet. Tesla EV is increasingly taking on ICE directly in cost of ownership. Even without...

These are really important questions the answers to which, if we had them, would allow much better tailoring of our response. The only problem is how to get the data. Infecting people to gather it would be unethical, completely irresponsible, that level of field data is not worth killing for...

Right idea with wrong timing is still wrong. Stock market since the federal reserve and federal government stepped in in March appears to be entirely disconnected from the state of pandemic. It’s been odd to me to see such a big disconnect in the face of much worsening health conditions on the...

These metrics are definitely something to watch. As much as we all might propose a data driven approach to covid-19 public health measures what I would advocate is an understanding driven approach. Let’s go out and collect not just death trend data, but the data that explains the trend. If we...

it is clearly different this time. In March deaths spiked with about a two week lag in cases. We are three weeks into this second spike and deaths are only just starting to tick upward. But also note in the first spike that the weekly rise and dip pattern is absent as well. Testing capacity...

Even if it’s headed in the right direction - which would be excellent news, I hope it is - What other region has had a significant first peak and then had to move backwards in reopening?

Basic masks don’t protect you. They protect others if you happen to have the virus (asymptomatic and presymptomatic makes up a good portion of transmission). It’s not that hard to wear one. Uncomfortable, yes. On the scale of sacrifices for a better America this is so small we should call it...

This is the real curious situation. Why is CA rising at the same time as TX and AZ. States I have theorized are spiking due to general disinterest across a wide set of their populations in masks and social distance. CA does seem not to fit with these sorts of theories and data. Mask use in...

This article is off the deep end into crazy territory. Reading with a skeptical bent would find issues with almost every point this article raises. There certainly is a threshold where a shutdown makes sense or doesn’t but collecting all these fringe opinions together isn’t a good argument...

Southern FL stats look like they tilt just slightly more severe. Maybe 1/5 of covid inpatients in ICU and 1/10 of inpatients on a vent. Seems like a general rule of thumb that’s been true for awhile. Big uptrend in hospitalizations over the past month, but not the same exponential level of...

The state and local budgets for the next year in the US are being rewritten and revised down at a furious pace due to coronavirus impacts. https://www.ncsl.org/research/fiscal-policy/coronavirus-covid-19-state-budget-updates-and-revenue-projections637208306.aspx Proving to be quite painful for...