Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

SoylentBrown with the burn...

 

[jhm]

I, for one, would prefer Tesla not to be included in the S&P. Tesla does not need inclusion. S&P needs Tesla inclusion to stay relevant. Tesla does not need passive index fundholders as investors. It does far better with high conviction active investors who care passionately about the company and its mission. Active investors buy and sell based on how the company executes on its vision. Passive investors don't know, don't care; buying or selling has practically nothing to do with what Tesla accomplishes. So why do we get so excited about passive investors? They are just along for the ride. It's the active investors who really matter for long-term value appreciation.

 

[dc_h]

Anyone holding shares going into this earnings report has balls?

Anyone selling doesn’t!

 

[MP3Mike]

I, for one, would prefer Tesla not to be included in the S&P. Tesla does not need inclusion. S&P needs Tesla inclusion to stay relevant. Tesla does not need passive index fundholders as investors. It does far better with high conviction active investors who care passionately about the company and its mission. Active investors buy and sell based on how the company executes on its vision. Passive investors don't know, don't care; buying or selling has practically nothing to do with what Tesla accomplishes. So why do we get so excited about passive investors? They are just along for the ride. It's the active investors who really matter for long-term value appreciation.

I would argue that "high conviction active investors" are just like passive fund holders. Buy and hold. Which is exactly what Tesla needs, we don't need no stink'en day-traders running the price up and down all the time.

Now if you said Tesla need "high conviction active traders", I would say you are 100% wrong.

 

[jhm]

I would argue that "high conviction active investors" are just like passive fund holders. Buy and hold. Which is exactly what Tesla needs, we don't need no stink'en day-traders running the price up and down all the time.

Now if you said Tesla need "high conviction active traders", I would say you are 100% wrong.

No, I mean active investors who take the time to select Tesla, pay attention to how Tesla progresses as an enterprise and decide when to increase or decrease their position. Buy-and-hold investors do actively decide when to accumulate. By contrast day traders have almost no interest in Tesla as an enterprise, as their outlook is incredibly short-term.

 

[MC3OZ]

Tesla coming to Singapore soon it seems : teslamotors

Tesla job adds for Singapore staff.

 

[MP3Mike]

No, I mean active investors who take the time to select Tesla, pay attention to how Tesla progresses as an enterprise and decide when to increase or decrease their position. Buy-and-hold investors do actively decide when to accumulate. By contrast day traders have almost no interest in Tesla as an enterprise, as their outlook is incredibly short-term.

And most fund investors are likely dollar cost averaging buyers, which is just fine. They provide a continual buying pressure.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So why not start work on 4 more Gigafactories with an $8B raise?

Because they haven't built the production prototype yet, and *sugar* changes.

 

[capster]

But why the spoon?? The baby wasn't eating!! He wasn't feeding the baby!!
Why not a bottle??! I demand answer! Even if Tesla reports a profit, it won't be nearly enough for me to get a nice hair implant for all the hair I parted with reading this thread??!

"Sometimes a spoon is just a spoon," to paraphrase, uh, someone.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Cannot believe how far up the backside some of these CNBS peeps are, that they cannot see the bleeding obvious.

When asked whether they would take a bet on GM or TSLA on a 3 year horizon, one of them couldn't choose since it was a tough call, and the other (Tim) opined GM

Options traders bet Tesla could add $75 billion in market cap by Friday

To NOT bury the lead in this story, let's remind ourselves that adding $75B in Mkt Cap is equivalent to adding $400 to the SP, a 25% move to the UPSIDE.

No wonder they want to bury something...

Cheers!

 

[smorgasbord]

To NOT bury the lead in this story, let's remind ourselves that adding $75B in Mkt Cap is equivalent to adding $400 to the SP, a 25% move to the UPSIDE.

By Friday.

Which has nothing to do with S&P 500 inclusion. /S

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now I will do my part to reduce the noise level by going into self exhile and not posting here again until next weekend.
(Please refrain from the Love and Like ratings on this post or I will be offended).

For those of us who who saw SP in March 2014 at $260 go nowhere for five and a half years until October 2019. Meanwhile Tesla laying out the groundbreaking infrastructure and technological advantage day by day by day during this time while everyone was laughing at them.

Hard not to gloat, isn't it? Even if it's not the weekend yet...

Cheers to the longs!

 

[davepsilon]

Incorrect. For durable goods items, it most definitely hurts your competition. If you can't build them fast enough, the customers will wait or buy used rather than spend their hard earn dollars on something that will depreciate immediately. Your logic only applies to fungible items where your competitor's product can be substituted at the right price and where the consumer must have one or the other. If the mission is to kill ICE vehicle sales, then a great product at a great price will ensure those ICE vehicles stay on the lot, or get priced low enough to convince manufacturers not to waste any more money on them.

Passing on the savings from scaling up production makes it much harder for competitors to enter the EV market as well. Tesla owning the EV market is probably good for shares. Not sure it’s good for the planet.

Tesla EV is increasingly taking on ICE directly in cost of ownership. Even without considering increasing air regulation effects. EV share of vehicle market will probably continue to gain against ICE due to continued advancement in EV tech. EV tech was low scale and immature, now in transition vs. ICE mature and high scale already

By dropping the price as costs come down Tesla is effectively buying future scale at the cost of near term profit. It’s a good plan because they want to increase production by a good amount and stay production constrained.

 

[MC3OZ]

Passing on the savings from scaling up production makes it much harder for competitors to enter the EV market as well. Tesla owning the EV market is probably good for shares. Not sure it’s good for the planet.

Tesla EV is increasingly taking on ICE directly in cost of ownership. Even without considering increasing air regulation effects. EV share of vehicle market will probably continue to gain against ICE due to continued advancement in EV tech. EV tech was low scale and immature, now in transition vs. ICE mature and high scale already

By dropping the price as costs come down Tesla is effectively buying future scale at the cost of near term profit. It’s a good plan because they want to increase production by a good amount and stay production constrained.

Dropping prices increases the incentive for competitors to get serious about their BEV program and go "all in", soon that will be the only viable alternative.

With higher volumes at a slightly lower margin they get more market share while retaining the same profit..

I agree,they are dropping prices to remain production constrained, I don't think it costs them near term profit, scaling to high volumes allows greater efficiency.... and spreading fixed costs over a larger number of units..

So I think with Model 3 production Tesla cleared a difficult hurdle, getting to volume production profitably on their first car, many will try and not make it.

With Battery Day it is likely we will see Tesla is no longer cell constrained, which is another important hurdle cleared..

Combine the 2, Tesla can do volume production on BEVs selling at attractive prices while maintaining good margins and being profitable.. That doesn't seem like a big deal.... we don't know if another other car maker has cleared the first hurdle for BEVs, but we know they haven't cleared the second..

Tesla will not hold these big advantages forever, but they have them now... so they can currently grow market share while growing profits, and no competitor can do much about it.

 

[FrankSG]

I’m sure this has been asked and answered already. I spend a lot of time here but not all my time here.

What does an S&P announcement look like? Is it a decision that happens at a preset quarterly meeting or are they on the fly?
Who decides?
How do they announce decisions?
Etc
Etc

You get the picture. What are the mechanics of such a thing?

thanks!

I believe it is a meeting held monthly.

I believe the number is 9-10 people, and they are all anonymous.

There will be a message posted on the S&P website. Iirc the time is always 5:15PM.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I believe it is a meeting held monthly.

I believe the number is 9-10 people, and they are all anonymous.

There will be a message posted on the S&P website. Iirc the time is always 5:15PM.

Selecting companies for the S&P 500 feels a lot like selecting the next Pope...

 

[StealthP3D]

Seriously. I remember when there was a thread on there about a Model 3 price drop about a year ago. Most of the thread was trashing Teslas. Guess folks are more “woke” now.

A year ago the share price was in the dumper. It's amazing how much the share price affects whether the cars and company are viewed negatively or positively. A strong share price charges up demand.

 

[kengchang]

A year ago the share price was in the dumper. It's amazing how much the share price affects whether the cars and company are viewed negatively or positively. A strong share price charges up demand.

No more Tesla is heading for bankruptcy talk when you just bring up the fact that Tesla is the top 20 market cap company in the US

 

[smorgasbord]

I believe it is a meeting held monthly.

I believe the number is 9-10 people, and they are all anonymous.

There will be a message posted on the S&P website. Iirc the time is always 5:15PM.

The number is 9 exactly. Simple majority rules.
They are not all anonymous. The Managing Director is Philip Murphy. He replaced David Blitzer just recently. They changed titles at the same time (Blizter was chairman).
They meet once a month, but some months have had two separate inclusions. I don't know how/why.
Yes, publish time is 5:15pm Eastern.
You can look for announcements at spglobal.com, but they get pushed to news outlets at the same time so that's probably the faster way for us to find out unless someone wants to write a crawler for S&P's announcement page.

 

[StealthP3D]

He seemed sincere and quite "reasonable" even if I disagree with him. He's quite positive on the company, he just thinks the valuation is too high.

What struck me here like a bonk on the head as I listened to him was how much it sounded JUST LIKE what most every analyst was saying about MSFT back in the mid-late 1980's. They said MSFT was a great company with well above average earnings and growth potential, it was simply far too over-valued to be considered for investment purposes by any reasonable person. This smacked me in the side of the head like one of the strongest cases of deja vu I've experienced. I didn't listen to the analysts then (thank my lucky stars) and I'm not going to listen them now. And yet it (MSFT) just kept going up. Like crazy. They did have a long period of stagnation during the Balmer years (over a decade later) but not before it minted thousands of "MSFT millionaires". And, under Satya Nadella it's been on a tear his entire tenure.