Coronavirus

[electracity]

Florida at 10K infections/day has crossed into NY territory. These states have similar size population.

Death rate in a few weeks should indicate how much has been learned about treating the disease.

 

[dfwatt]

This isn't really anything new. This has been the dominant strain since the outbreak in Europe. And it was the strain of the outbreak in New York and it quickly became the dominant strain in the rest of the US too.
The original virus in Wuhan seemed pretty darned infectious, 3x-9x seems like a stretch...
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1.full.pdf
View attachment 559951

I agree. I'm not sure what their metric is in terms of the notion that it is somehow 3 to 9 times as infectious. Not even sure what that means. But it sure as heck isn't a fair statement that the r subscript value is 3 to 9 times greater.

 

[jerry33]

Just ordered a o2 meter on ebay for $15

Been using one of those for weeks. This morning it reads 97/63.

 

[SageBrush]

Death rate in a few weeks should indicate how much has been learned about treating the disease.

After you correct for age

 

[dfwatt]

I do not know if it's possible to watch this outside of Sweden -- but here's a nurse who's Covid-19 postive in a hospital bed in Houston, TX with oxygen.

I'm only a layman...

But..., is she really that sick?...

Sjuksköterskan Tanna smittades – ”ny nedstängning hjälper inte”

It lists your location as Sweden, Earth. You must be on Earth 2. This is where covid-19 isn't that serious, it's been blown out of proportion by liberal media, no one under 85 ever gets sick, or if they do it's just like the flu, and Trump is having his visage placed on Mount Rushmore because everyone in the world agrees he's the greatest president that the United States has ever seen.

 

[dfwatt]

It's time for my weekly Moron Spray award. This week it's the governor of South Dakota. She announces open quotes proudly close quotes that there will be no social distancing at the Mount Rushmore Fourth of July celebration. And don't even think about wearing one of those Pinko commie phaggot masks. Good for her. Let's hope she's out there inhaling virus along with the rest of the suckers. Afterwards there will be the biannual Earth-is-flat Party, open only to the delusional and non cognoscenti. Last week's winner, Governor Abbott of Texas remarked, admiringly, "damn she's really stupid! I thought I was dumb! I just can't compete with that level of dumbass!"

 

[renim]

Situation has completely fallen apart in San Diego. I thought the mandatory masking was keeping us safe, but it appears to require some other measures. Sad!

....

Mandatory masking should help, but only a teensy little bit.

No1 place to catch covid is in the family home, if people wear masks it should be including at home. Often outbreak studies are 3 or more so to exclude the family home.

Do people wear masks while eating and drinking indoors, a classic covid19 study was the chinese restaurant study where multiple patrons caught covid19, they would have been wearing masks going to and from the restaurant, but not while eating, which was when they most at risk.

I could go on, air replacment in a room may be measured like 5 to 10 minutes, perhaps more if frugally sealed, vs outdoors where air is moving at 0-20 m/s. Dilution is so much more powerful than filtration.

Coronavirus: UAE suspends flights from Pakistan, special COVID-19 test lab planned. Juat because mask wearing is normalised doesnt sufficiently protect, Culturally having their populace wear face covering is not complicated, yet why the high rates? For one thing, being in a long flight in a tin can with contagious people doesn't help, even with face covering.

 

[davepsilon]

Situation has completely fallen apart in San Diego. I thought the mandatory masking was keeping us safe, but it appears to require some other measures. Sad!

584 new cases (all time high)
22 outbreaks (in last 7 days, all time high)
Hospitalizations at an all time high.

The outbreaks are primarily in restaurants and businesses, with a grocery store as well. The 9 new ones, I do not know....So the restaurants are probably going to need to be shuttered again for dine-in, or the rules more strictly enforced.

We’re on the state watch list, but there is a delay on them cracking down due to the way it is set up, so we’ll be open for business this Independence Day, to help the hotels out. Next week all the new restrictions will phase in assuming no improvement.

I don’t understand the focus on outbreaks. They should just talk about unlinked cases. My guess is we have a lot of unlinked cases, community transmission is now widespread, and we’re in for a major surge without either better compliance with orders, or a new shutdown.

I hope I am wrong.

This is the real curious situation. Why is CA rising at the same time as TX and AZ. States I have theorized are spiking due to general disinterest across a wide set of their populations in masks and social distance. CA does seem not to fit with these sorts of theories and data.

Mask use in CA and general attitude towards covid seemed to be similar to Northeast region. Europe has so far seen no resurgence.

If this happens in CA does it mean the whole world is on track for resurgence? That one cannot open if ones neighbors have cases? Maybe we would assign this in CA to behavior changes due to social distance fatigue? That isn’t good for US in total. Maybe it’s due to weather and indoor/outdoor behavior? That’s also not good. Maybe it’s just a different sub population picked it up this round in CA so it’s spreading into a different set of people. Seems unlikely.

CA is a very curious case. I hope your local struggles in stopping the growth are successful and everyone you know stays healthy!

 

[electracity]

Mandatory masking should help, but only a teensy little bit.

No1 place to catch covid is in the family home, if people wear masks it should be including at home. Often outbreak studies are 3 or more so to exclude the family home.

Do people wear masks while eating and drinking indoors, a classic covid19 study was the chinese restaurant study where multiple patrons caught covid19, they would have been wearing masks going to and from the restaurant, but not while eating, which was when they most at risk.

I could go on, air replacment in a room may be measured like 5 to 10 minutes, perhaps more if frugally sealed, vs outdoors where air is moving at 0-20 m/s. Dilution is so much more powerful than filtration.

Coronavirus: UAE suspends flights from Pakistan, special COVID-19 test lab planned. Juat because mask wearing is normalised doesnt sufficiently protect, Culturally having their populace wear face covering is not complicated, yet why the high rates? For one thing, being in a long flight in a tin can with contagious people doesn't help, even with face covering.

Going to a restaurant to eat in has been a bizarre choice since early March. For me the lesson of the last three years is that the stupid level of the general population is considerably higher than I previously believed.

 

[NikolaACDC]

But..., is she really that sick?...

Maybe it's because
"Ingraham is considered a high risk patient. She has hereditary angioedema.
"It causes inflammation in my airway then you know, we don't know what we're gonna do," Ingraham said.

Houston ICU nurse admitted to her own unit for coronavirus

 

[NikolaACDC]

Gov. Greg Abbott issues statewide mask order

"In a groundbreaking move on Thursday, Gov. Greg Abbott issued a statewide mask order.
This means every Texan is required to wear a mask or facial covering when out in public. According to the governor, the order applies to all counties in the state with more than 20 confirmed COVID-19 cases."

"COVID-19 is not going away," said the governor in the announcement above published on his social media accounts. "In fact, it's getting worse."

No shite Sherlock. Remains to be seen how much use it is, many many 'free' people in Texas.

 

[madodel]

So at least the Feds are planning for a surge in syringe use for when a vaccine may become available.
As vaccine hopes rise, U.S. races to buy syringes to avoid a mask-shortage scenario

Rather than wait for a viable vaccine to stock up on syringes, the federal government is securing them now. To date, it has signed at least $260 million in contracts for their production.​

 

[azaz]

Florida at 10K infections/day has crossed into NY territory. These states have similar size population.

Death rate in a few weeks should indicate how much has been learned about treating the disease.

Yes but NY was having like a 50% positivity rate. We probably only caught one out of every 10 or 20 cases in NY officially. NY real numbers a day were probably around 50k if not more

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Remains to be seen how much use it is, many many 'free' people in Texas.

The lesson from San Diego County is that even with quite high mask compliance (people are really quite good about it here), as long as people are allowed to congregate in restaurants indoors (without masks of course), it will continue to spread with R greater than 1.

So masks alone are unlikely to stop the spread. They need to remove the superspreading events from the mix as well. (This is the value I see in focusing on classifying outbreaks, I think - it allows you to see what activities to shut down immediately. The number of outbreaks alone is not a metric for success though - but if you have zero, that implies you are no longer allowing any high-risk congregate settings.)

Anyway, mandatory masking is essential, but I don’t think we’re going to see sustained declines in AZ/FL/TX/CA until indoor dining, etc., are banned. I hope I am wrong because without declines immediately, the numbers are going to get frighteningly high - along with the deaths, which are now steadily rising in AZ/FL/TX.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Yes but NY was having like a 50% positivity rate. We probably only caught one out of every 10 or 20 cases in NY officially. NY real numbers a day were probably around 50k if not more

Sanity check is to integrate the scaled daily NYC case values and make sure they end up at less than 2 million.

We are at 25% positivity in some places now with bad outbreaks. I think we are likely catching 1/4 infections at that level. At the peak in NYC, it was probably closer to 1/10 infections (again, check the integration with a variable (reducing) scalar as the outbreak proceeded).

So I think the multiplier to compare prior situation to now is more like 3 or so. Or divide current case counts by 3 to compare to prior numbers.

By end of next week, we should be exceeding the prior true daily infections, assuming growth continues. The scalar to use to compare case counts will change (reduce to 2, etc.) as positivity continues to increase.

 

[NikolaACDC]

It's back...
Study finds hydroxychloroquine helped coronavirus patients survive better - CNN

"Overall crude mortality rates were 18.1% in the entire cohort, 13.5% in the hydroxychloroquine alone group, 20.1% among those receiving hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin, 22.4% among the azithromycin alone group, and 26.4% for neither drug," the team wrote in a report published in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases.

"Our results do differ from some other studies," Zervos told a news conference. "What we think was important in ours ... is that patients were treated early. For hydroxychloroquine to have a benefit, it needs to begin before the patients begin to suffer some of the severe immune reactions that patients can have with Covid," he added.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

This is not really what you want to see in your Emergency Department.

I am beginning to think it’s over, as far as controlled handling of the outbreak. Unless case numbers flatten (not sure why they would) in the next week, I think the hospital system will overload in about two weeks in AZ.

Hope I am very wrong and case numbers just flatline unexpectedly. A cessation of growth and keeping true infection numbers steady (case numbers may indeed flatten due to test capacity limits, but positivity increases mean the infection count is still growing) would be manageable (but that’s not a stable solution).

 

[SageBrush]

CA is a very curious case.

I'm less sure

Daily cases are way down from the recent peak, as would be expected if the public health steps taken 1 - 2 weeks ago were effective

 

[SageBrush]

So at least the Feds are planning for a surge in syringe use for when a vaccine may become available.
As vaccine hopes rise, U.S. races to buy syringes to avoid a mask-shortage scenario

Rather than wait for a viable vaccine to stock up on syringes, the federal government is securing them now. To date, it has signed at least $260 million in contracts for their production.​

Good, but in the meantime the Feds are about 6 months behind in focusing on mask production.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Gov. Greg Abbott issues statewide mask order
...
No shite Sherlock. Remains to be seen how much use it is, many many 'free' people in Texas.

Quoting myself...case in point:
'We don't live in a communist country!': battle over masks rages in Texas

"...Laurie Smith, 50. She is an administrative employee at a local church, where she is also a member, and calls mandatory mask requirements a sign of “sad” government manipulation. “My college-age kids are able to follow the recommendations without questioning it, but my husband and I are of a different generation, and we value our liberty to be able to make our own choices. So we question it more than they do,” she said."

50 years old. Wonder what periods of endangered liberty she has lived through. Unless she's not white.

“We don’t live in a communist country! This is supposed to be America,” said Tee Allen Parker, who has banned wearing of masks at her bar."
The 45-year-old owner of the Machine Shed Bar & Grill in Kilgore, east Texas, has become the face of the resistance fighting mask-wearing among the business community in the state.
She said: “It’s an individual choice. There’s been nothing scientific that says masks are effective.I choose not to wear it, but I don’t let thousands of people breathe on me.”
Parker is leading 22 bar owners and Texans who have sued the governor for closing bars again last week after a new surge in Covid-19 cases. She points out that Abbott met the family of George Floyd without wearing a mask.
She said: “There’s a picture of the governor sitting with his family with no mask on. You can’t tell me to do something you won’t do. You lead by example.”

Well, guess she's got a point there.
Though that was 3 weeks ago, and sometimes even the thickest people are able to learn something new.