Recent content by tftf

Considering that the Model 3 is not available in Europe and Asia until 2019 and that the Model Y is years away the list for 2018-2020 is important. These competitors will eat mind- and marketshare from Tesla, and there will be additional high-speed charging networks (IONITY in Europe, Electrify...

High-end EVs? Here are just a few examples what's coming over the next 12-24 months: - Jaguar i-Pace (another Jaguar rumored for 2019, XJ EV) - Volvo and Polestar EVs (various models starting in 2019, mostly CUVs) - Mercedes EQC SUV (then an EQA, very similar to Model 3) - BMW iX3 SUV and i4...

I didn't talk about Chinese car makers (except for BYD in passing, they make both cars/bateries, mostly sell commercial vehicles only outside of China). CATL makes batteries and supplies / will supply Western car makers. That includes high-end customers such as BMW and Daimler / Mercedes:

The auto makers will, no elves (or tents) involved. Take for example Daimler. They will have 8 battery factories globally: Daimler to build battery factories in Sindelfingen, Untertuerkheim Some already completed in Germany, more coming for a total of eight. And that‘s just Daimler...

Ok, so Model3 should be mostly correct (since sold in US only plus a few in Canada), but did you use US numbers only for S and X unit sales? Even adjusting S and X for international sales (and generously adding storage batteries) the numbers don’t add up with Elon’s claims. Here’s CATL alone...

Let’s not get lost in details, but Honda has two JVs in China: Dongfeng-Honda. That Honda XR-V comes with a completely different front end and backend design to differ from the Honda Vezel sold by Guangqi Honda (See Wikipedia). So these will likely be the two different EVs as well. Funnily...

I like to talk about numbers. - Solar. Tesla or Tesla execs mentioned annual output at either 10GW, 1 GW and 1-2 GW of solar output (at full ramp). All these estimates were given within a few months in 2016-2017. There’s obviously a huge gap between making 1GW or 10GW per year. So which number...

So, a simpler question. Forget about Volvo. When will Tesla cross 600k car units / year? Model S and X are (combined) at ~ 100k units per year with no major growth projected: Horace Dediu on Twitter Here are Elon’s estimates up to 2020: Horace Dediu on Twitter So since he predicted 1M...

That’s the gem you found? Honda USA may have delayed one EV in NA, but a new Honda EV is still coming to China in 2018 in CUV form: Honda about to launch three EVs in China - electrive.com The small Honda urban EV you mentioned is yet another model coming in 2019 (to Europe, likely not NA due...

Synergies? David Robinson: Tesla's solar business is shrinking. Here's what it means for Buffalo. I see a shrinking business, see chart in link. (Also note the financial and other ongoing obligations Tesla has to the State for GF2). But you are free to add solar revenue if we assume a simple...

Maybe you don’t need a battery factory since you can order battery cells from LG Chem, CATL etc. That’s what all large car makers are doing. LG Chem just started building another 32 GWh EV battery factory in China... Capital / funding is the bottleneck here: Let me know how Tesla can finish...

I wrote < 1%. That’s a niche. Simple question: When will Tesla sell more cars than Volvo (rounded-up 2017 numbers at 600k) per year? (Volvo is growing sales, but let’s freeze Volvo at 2017 numbers) Volvo is a good benchmark example because it sells only into higher-end segments, is profitable...

How about, just for once, not put words in my mouth or twist what I wrote a long time ago? I never said there’s no demand for EVs. I wrote/predicted that there will be a long evolutionary journey over 1-2 decades due to slow replacement cycles and batteries only becoming cost-competitive with...

NFLX vs TSLA? Let’s compare two bubbly stocks (granted, from two very different sectors) in a late-stage bull market (as of early 2018)?! Comparative valuations of bubble stocks make little to no sense imho - except for chasing momentum and selling to a bigger fool before the bubble pops. A...

Tesla's debt obligations and debt schedule... $TSLA Debt Expiration Schedule, $MM What scares me the most is SolarCity toxic balance sheet full of leased assets, cash equity debt, etc. Moreover, $TSLA pledged $4.0 billion dollars worth of assets as collateral under debt obligations. Source...