Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
f
My mentor once said: 1% of the market is ALOT. Anyone who said otherwise doesn't know business.
My mentor once said: 1% of the market is ALOT. Anyone who said otherwise doesn't know business.
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Ahh fair enough. Although come on, with all the noise he is making and all the BS twittering he's doing before anything has even been done in the courts it's pretty clear the guy is being paid by someone else to do this. It's probably not Peter Thiel this time around haha, but there are many people of his wealth that would pay this attorneys fees just for the media attention with a zero chance of success.
I don't know what "the formal filing of Martin Tripp with the SEC" means. Doesn't the SEC do their own independent investigations and file their actions under their own name, i.e. SEC V. Chanos, for example?
If Meissner isn't involved in the Tesla v. Tripp case, why does he keep talking about a forceful "Answer" soon to be filed? An Answer is filed in response to a Complaint.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Even giving you the benefit of the doubt regarding Meissner's chance of success, I would argue that it is FAR more lucrative for him to get a ton of media coverage win or lose. Look...he's got us talking about him. The press is great for business, I'm sure. He could be just looking for a high profile case to get his name on the map.
Dan
jelloslug
Active Member
I don't think that's necessarily true, although i obivously can't know. Also, i'm not a legal expert and much less so, when it comes to US law. But there have been articles flying around that he was involved in a case with a Monsanto whistleblower, which resulted in a fine of ~80 million for Monsanto of which ~20 million were awarded to the whistleblower. If he agrees to taking 20% or whatever of a potential award of that size, that would be 4 million. Even if his best guess is, that he might win 1 out of 10 cases, it's still 400k. Of course i don't know if awards of that size are a common thing, but that might be incentive enough. There would be no need for an outside money source. Imho, that's a more plausible explanation than introducing an unknown third party. At least for the moment.
Apparently you can't just call the SEC, give them an anonymous tip and hope for the best, since this has a low chance of success and you won't get the award for pointing out what was wrong. I assume, you have to file your allegations formally, with all the evidence you have, if you want to be granted whistleblower status and hope to be awarded for it. And i have no clue, what Meissner may have meant with that forceful answer thing.
Media coverage won't hurt, of course. As i tried to point out above, you have to relate that 'chance of success' to the possible gains, which may be considerable. Still hoping someone with more knowledge about how that usually works will join the discussion, since i'm basically guessing a lot here.
dc_h
Active Member
If you donate a penny will it get you on a mailing list and help drive up costs of fund raising?
I don't know if this explanation is true, but at least I understand what you meant by "the formal filing of Martin Tripp with the SEC."
YasB said: ↑
Are you aware that there are two cases? That fund you linked is to hire attorneys for the lawsuit that Teslas filed against Martin Tripp. That Stuart Meissner guy is not involved in that case.
If you have no clue what Meissner meant by his claim that "a forceful Answer is coming" then why do you say Meissner is not involved in the Tesla v. Tripp case? What is the basis for your statement?
I wrote < 1%. That’s a niche.
Simple question: When will Tesla sell more cars than Volvo (rounded-up 2017 numbers at 600k) per year?
(Volvo is growing sales, but let’s freeze Volvo at 2017 numbers)
Volvo is a good benchmark example because it sells only into higher-end segments, is profitable and will soon electrify its entire car portfolio.
So, simple question:
When will Tesla sell more than 600k car units / year in your opinion (all readers invited)?
Then compare the market feedback to Volvo’s planned IPO with Tesla’s current market cap:
Volvo Cars IPO Draws Lower Valuations in Initial Feedback
PS: Volvo already has several factories in Asia (two more in China under construction), NA and Europe.
Remember it takes several years to get a car factory up and running (full ramp).
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When will Volvo have a giant battery factory, sell stationary battery storage at an exponential pace, develop solar roofs, sell solar panels and have a fast charging network of its own? And have the kind of brand recognition that Tesla has?
We should also remember that it was Mr Musk who kickstarted this EV thingy and large scale stationary battery production. You might not see him as a visionary but some do and might value the company more because of its CEO and what that might entail for the future. Revolutionizing the rocket industry also gives some street cred in my eyes - but that's just me.
What has Volvo's CEO been up to lately? Addressing nuclear fusion?
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Maybe you don’t need a battery factory since you can order battery cells from LG Chem, CATL etc.
That’s what all large car makers are doing. LG Chem just started building another 32 GWh EV battery factory in China...
Capital / funding is the bottleneck here:
Let me know how Tesla can finish the remaining ~70% of GF1, finish and ramp GF2 (solar) and then finance GF3 and GF4 in Asia/Europe. Another $20-25 billion or so needed in total (remember that GF3 and 4 are supposedly making cars and batteries in the same factory...).
What is the revenue percentage of solar roofs/solar panel revenue vs total revenue at Tesla? Is it profitable?
There’s a reason I stick to cars. Solarcity is a drag on Tesla with shrinking revenues (and likely for quite some time to come).
The SC network is probably at $250-300 million net book value (that’s optimistic, Tesla didn’t disclose this number since late 2016).
Now to my question...
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Yeah, you stick to your cars and look at SC network solely based on it's book value. Excellent idea. Apple should also have stuck to computers and music devices without venturing out to phones or without developing product synergies. Now I also understand that clearly Apple should stop development of their own chips because they can just by them from others. Apple doesn't benefit from hardware that they have self developed to go hand-in-hand with the software.
Please tell me more, master. You're clearly one of those visionaries I mentioned previously.
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Synergies?
David Robinson: Tesla's solar business is shrinking. Here's what it means for Buffalo.
I see a shrinking business, see chart in link.
(Also note the financial and other ongoing obligations Tesla has to the State for GF2).
But you are free to add solar revenue if we assume a simple ATP of $50-60k / car (once Tesla starts to sell also those $35-40k cars, otherwise that number is not possible. I’m being generous so that 600k units / year become more realistic).
And I would like to know what the full capacity at Buffalo in your revenue assumptions since Tesla used a lot of numbers: 10GW, then 1GW and then 1-2 GW annually. Which one is it now? Orders of Magnitudes, which obviously results in very different revenue (assuming demand is unlimited).
Deduct that and add your solar revenue.
So (future sales of) Tesla @ xzy cars + xzy in (future) solar revenue = Volvo revenue (frozen at 2017 numbers)
Which calendar year in your estimates?
I’m sure some long-term / fundamental Tesla investors keep a spreadsheet or made some assumptions so that’s easy to answer.
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You know it as well as I do that the company shifted from leasing to direct sales in photovoltaics, resulting in a major drop in the sales volume.
Look, I invested in Apple because I *loved* their products, saw that they were undiscovered by the majority and admired Jobbs. I was less interested in their quarterly report in 2008 because it was irrelevant at the time relative to the future potential in my eyes. Turned out pretty well. Got the same hunch here and intend to follow it. Higher chance of getting burned but I only invest what I afford to lose.
Did the quarterly report figures tell you 10-15 years ago what kind of future successes the tech titans or Amazon would be? Do they contain an index number (like PE) for innovation and thinking outside the box? Do you live in a box?
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bdy0627
Active Member
I wouldn't say that's necessarily the case. He has a motive, but all we can say at the moment is that his strategy is clearly focused on influencing public opinion against Elon/Tesla while trying to increase the interest in whatever information he is going to release.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
This is a shallow question to ask, because it doesn't take into account the product mix ASP or the profit margin.
Munro and Associates conducted a teardown and analysis of Model 3, and concluded that 30%+ margins were likely: Will The Tesla Model 3 Really Achieve A 30% Profit Margin?, far higher than the competition. This is consistent with the analysis by a German firm, which estimated that Model 3 has a production cost of $28,000 at volume: German car engineers tore apart a Tesla Model 3 to see how much it cost to build
Realistically, a car in the same class as Model 3 class does not sell much at the 35k level. 45-55k is a more reasonable expectation based on my experience. This is what people buying a BMW 3-series or MB C-class are typically paying when they buy their car with the options they want.
This is to be expected in the short term, as the old model of deploying generating capacity upfront and charging for electricity supply goes away.
Tesla is moving to a direct sales model.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Actually, we should revisit what you wrote "a long time ago". There are lots of examples, but this one is a gem:
Honda Clarity FCEV revealed!
tftf wrote: "Actual consumers drive around in BEV versions of IONIQ in Europe as I type this. The BEV model may have some delay in NA, but it is already shipping in Europe.
The 200-mile version upgrade should be coming by 2018 (link above) and we will see about the Honda BEV range and exact shipment date."
What actually happened:
(1) Hyundai was forced to stop selling Ionics in Canada, because of a "global battery supply shortage": Battery shortage interrupts Hyundai Ioniq Electric sales
Hyundai USA still only offers the 124 mile range Ionic BEV. That 200 mile version is MIA.
(2) Honda's Clarity BEV (midsize sedan) has a pathetic 89 mile range. Like I've said before, trying to shoehorn an electric powertrain into a platform designed for hydrogen fuel cells and plugins hybrids, is just not going to work very well.
And then Honda introduced this as their future BEV: Honda’s Urban EV Concept is even more adorable in the flesh, a tiny 2-door urban car
Your past predictions do not do your credibility any favors.
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
@Mod, can you rename this thread "Arguing With Trolls Interspersed With Occasional Market Action Comments"?
Thank you.
Mod: Done! Too good a suggestion to ignore. But I'll put it back this evening. --ggr.
Thank you.
Mod: Done! Too good a suggestion to ignore. But I'll put it back this evening. --ggr.
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JRP3
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