Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[30seconds]

State of Tesla killers

Jaguar - pretty, low volume, lower efficiency and no charging network

Porsche - soon come, ok maybe not as soon as we said. This EV thing is harder than we thought

Audi - leader in EV press releases, our new e-tron will be awesome, trust us

GM - how do we stop making the Bolt?

Nissan - Leaf 3.0 will be awesome

Hyundai - super reasonable approach, may catch industry off guard

Toyota - yes in 2025 we will stop with hydrogen and be serious about EVs

Ford - screw this, we are just to make trucks and SUVs

Fiat - ??, did you see our cool new Alfa

Did I miss something?

 

[KarenRei]

I'd change Hyundai to "We'll make cars that apart from being total econoboxes are pretty decent, but we'll heavily limit production volumes and market availability so we don't lose too much money on them."

Outside of certain markets, Ioniq has always been very hard to get, and impossible in my places. Hyundai Kona & Kia Niro are targeting 40k per year, global total combined.

 

[avoigt]

There is an obvious and strong correlation between, EV share of new vehicles, charge points, available models, consumer incentives and promotions.

No surprise !

Politicians should read this graph and cannot pretend longer they do not know what to do to bring EVs on the roads.

Study equates model selection, infrastructure with electric-car sales

 

[ZsoZso]

Hyundai - super reasonable approach, may catch industry off guard

Hyundai - reasonable cars placed on back-order due to battery supply limitations
Battery Shortage A Problem For Hyundai IONIQ Electric

 

[MarcusMaximus]

State of Tesla killers

Jaguar - pretty, low volume, lower efficiency and no charging network

Porsche - soon come, ok maybe not as soon as we said. This EV thing is harder than we thought

Audi - leader in EV press releases, our new e-tron will be awesome, trust us

GM - how do we stop making the Bolt?

Nissan - Leaf 3.0 will be awesome

Hyundai - super reasonable approach, may catch industry off guard

Toyota - yes in 2025 we will stop with hydrogen and be serious about EVs

Ford - screw this, we are just to make trucks and SUVs

Fiat - ??, did you see our cool new Alfa

Did I miss something?

Isn’t the IPace also roughly the size of a Model 3, for ~2x the price?

 

[neroden]

State of Tesla killers

Jaguar - pretty, low volume, lower efficiency and no charging network

Porsche - soon come, ok maybe not as soon as we said. This EV thing is harder than we thought

Audi - leader in EV press releases, our new e-tron will be awesome, trust us

GM - how do we stop making the Bolt?

Nissan - Leaf 3.0 will be awesome

Hyundai - super reasonable approach, may catch industry off guard

Toyota - yes in 2025 we will stop with hydrogen and be serious about EVs

Ford - screw this, we are just to make trucks and SUVs

Fiat - ??, did you see our cool new Alfa

Did I miss something?

You forgot China

Also BMW

 

[winfield100]

Hyundai - reasonable cars placed on back-order due to battery supply limitations
Battery Shortage A Problem For Hyundai IONIQ Electric

Hyundai Ioniq Elect. $29,500 124 mile range 28kWh battery (downhill w//tailwind)
_yet_ it's battery is 37% the size of the M3
http://evadc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EVInfoSheet-20180403.pdf
or get the PHEV, with 1/3 the battery
Hyundai Ioniq PHEV $24,950 29 electric miles+gas 8.9 kWh battery
(yeah the range numbers are "funny?"

 

[Mkorpal]

State of Tesla killers

Jaguar - pretty, low volume, lower efficiency and no charging network

Porsche - soon come, ok maybe not as soon as we said. This EV thing is harder than we thought

Audi - leader in EV press releases, our new e-tron will be awesome, trust us

GM - how do we stop making the Bolt?

Nissan - Leaf 3.0 will be awesome

Hyundai - super reasonable approach, may catch industry off guard

Toyota - yes in 2025 we will stop with hydrogen and be serious about EVs

Ford - screw this, we are just to make trucks and SUVs

Fiat - ??, did you see our cool new Alfa

Did I miss something?

Honda - EV? I think you mean ED. And no, we don't have that.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Tesla rival Porsche is starting to realize it’s not easy to produce the Taycan

Tesla rival Porsche is starting to realize it's not easy to produce the Taycan

"

some more quotes i found interesting:

"Porsche’s estimated timeline for the project is 48 months, making the project quite costly and demanding" - cool, cool.
" the company’s workers have agreed to help finance the factory overhaul by opting to keep their pay flat until 2026" - WHAT THE F?! good for them i guess
"vehicle listed with a 0-60 mph time of 3.5 seconds, a range of 310 miles per charge, and a top speed of 155 mph" are we talking about M3P

State of Tesla killers

Jaguar - pretty, low volume, lower efficiency and no charging network


Did I miss something?

yes, you forgot that ipace deliveries are being delayed by 4 months to 2019

 

[Johann Koeber]

Porsche is advertising their access system to european charging networks.

They charge 2,50 € per month for the access plus the charging fees as follows:

Preisdetails

Mit einigen schnellen Klicks erfahren Sie, wie sich die Preise für die Ladevorgänge je nach Land und den zur Verfügung stehenden Ladesäulen zusammensetzen.

Land wählen
Deutschland
Pauschale Abrechnung
Ladeleistung der Ladesäule max. Preis / Ladevorgang
22 kW 8,00 €
50 kW 10,00 €
Stand 17.05.2018, Preise inkl. MwSt.

So, it is 8 € (22 kW) or 10 € (50 kW) flat fee per charge in Germany. In other countries the charge is per kWh.

8 @ buys me about 25 kWh, 10 Euro about 30 kWh at home. So if I charge more than that, it is cost competitive, but takes long to achieve.

This is not a good system. I think Porsche drivers will hate it - I would. I like the tesla system much better (120 kW, paid by the minute).

(Never mind free supercharging - no competition to that in sight.)

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Eh, true enough, but I'm not sure I actually care about any of those things. Do I need to go 0-60 in 3.5 seconds, rather than 4.5? Not really. Supercharging? I always take the big gas guzzler SUV on road trips, much easier. Autopilot? The Jag has auto steer and ACC, as does the Tesla; I expect Tesla's is somewhat better, but until they really can drive themselves, who cares? And I believe real self driving is many years away.

The I-Pace also has advantages over the Model 3:
- Leasing available
- Hatchback
- Android Auto
- 360 degree surround camera view
- Extensive luxury features and options you won't find on any Tesla
- Maybe Jaguar can actually deliver on schedule!

I really like both cars, though they each have their quirks and shortcomings. Had Tesla delivered on its initial delivery timing estimate, or any of the next three estimates they gave me, I'd already be driving a Model 3. Maybe now I'll just wait and see who delivers first.

Sorry to disappoint you, but I did test drive the iPace. The model I drove was the fully loaded with all options version. Those “extensive luxury” options amount to something in between standard and premium interior options of the Model X. It lost in all the premium aspects to my non-P premium white X.

The autosteer on the iPace is murderous. Firstly it auto engages and disengages without any indication barring a slight led changing color in the low part of the dash that you never look at. What this means is that on a few occasions it randomly wrestled the wheel from me mid curve when I knew the system was off and randomly abandoned driving mid curve when I knew it was on. Do you know what it does when it abandons? Nothing. The wheel goes straight and you drive with no audible or visual cue straight to the opposite traffic. I was monitoring so managed to intervene, but it was a split second question. NO cue about it aborting at all and in the next curve it wrestled me to go harder into the corner...

The size of the car is waaay smaller than the X so the competition is to the 3 and possible future Y, but the price is competing with X. And the charging at home is single phase that is a dealbreaker in EU where we have 3-phase power and hence low amps. Most homes have 3x16A or 3x24A range. This means you only get 3-5kW charging. So coming home empty from a trip takes close to 30h to recharge......

Isn’t the IPace also roughly the size of a Model 3, for ~2x the price?

Yes, it’s way smaller than X way way smaller.

 

[Saghost]

The autosteer on the iPace is murderous. Firstly it auto engages and disengages without any indication barring a slight led changing color in the low part of the dash that you never look at. What this means is that on a few occasions it randomly wrestled the wheel from me mid curve when I knew the system was off and randomly abandoned driving mid curve when I knew it was on. Do you know what it does when it abandons? Nothing. The wheel goes straight and you drive with no audible or visual cue straight to the opposite traffic. I was monitoring so managed to intervene, but it was a split second question. NO cue about it aborting at all and in the next curve it wrestled me to go harder into the corner...

Possibly the most important thing Tesla did with Autopilot is they sat down and spent a while thinking through the user interface and feedback. Jaguar's system seems to be typical of what many folks are implementing in that regard - no audible cues, no sensor feedback, only a light or two to show it's engaged.

Maybe one day the other systems will get to be as good as Tesla's (and maybe not, too,) but until they get a similar user interface, they'll never be anywhere near as safe. I'm not really a fan of Cadillac's interface choices for Supercruise, but at least that big row of lights tells you what the system is doing.

 

[phil0909]

Sorry to disappoint you, but I did test drive the iPace. The model I drove was the fully loaded with all options version. Those “extensive luxury” options amount to something in between standard and premium interior options of the Model X. It lost in all the premium aspects to my non-P premium white X.

The autosteer on the iPace is murderous. Firstly it auto engages and disengages without any indication barring a slight led changing color in the low part of the dash that you never look at. What this means is that on a few occasions it randomly wrestled the wheel from me mid curve when I knew the system was off and randomly abandoned driving mid curve when I knew it was on. Do you know what it does when it abandons? Nothing. The wheel goes straight and you drive with no audible or visual cue straight to the opposite traffic. I was monitoring so managed to intervene, but it was a split second question. NO cue about it aborting at all and in the next curve it wrestled me to go harder into the corner...

The size of the car is waaay smaller than the X so the competition is to the 3 and possible future Y, but the price is competing with X. And the charging at home is single phase that is a dealbreaker in EU where we have 3-phase power and hence low amps. Most homes have 3x16A or 3x24A range. This means you only get 3-5kW charging. So coming home empty from a trip takes close to 30h to recharge......



Yes, it’s way smaller than X way way smaller.

Disappoint me? I don't know who you think you're responding to here. I WAS comparing with the Model 3, because it is the closest Tesla in size. Not sure why you're talking so much about the Model X in response to my post. I have no interest in a behemoth the size of a Model X, though no doubt lots of people prefer really big cars.

I won't compare murder rates for the two manufacturers' autosteers till I've had a chance to try them, but as I said, the Jaguar certainly provides a bunch of luxury features unavailable on the Model 3. Most important for me is the air conditioned seats, but there is also the heated steering wheel, four-zone temperature control, gesture-activated tailgate, activity key, leather seating, heads-up display, Android Auto, 360-degree surround vision, and a bunch of other tech, safety and comfort features not found in Teslas. I'm sure the Model 3 Premium Upgrade interior contains a few luxury features the I-Pace is missing, but I'm hard-pressed to name more than a handful. Maybe the innovative HVAC system (can't get that on your Model X!), leatherette, and the big single tablet display could be considered premium features in the Model 3. Of course, the Jaguar has a glass roof, same as the premium Model 3.

 

[tftf]

This says nothing about the capacity of the battery pack facilities themselves. 8 facilities is a meaningless figure without more context.

Again, the game is capturing market share in the most profitable BEV vehicle segments and most valuable customers. Tesla doesn’t care if Honda sells a ton of short range electric Vezels at paper thin margins. They care about this as much as Apple does about low end Android devices. The money will be in the high end, and the industry stalwarts have nothing that can complete with the Model 3. Don’t take my word for it.

High-end EVs? Here are just a few examples what's coming over the next 12-24 months:

- Jaguar i-Pace (another Jaguar rumored for 2019, XJ EV)
- Volvo and Polestar EVs (various models starting in 2019, mostly CUVs)
- Mercedes EQC SUV (then an EQA, very similar to Model 3)
- BMW iX3 SUV and i4 (sedan)
- Audi EVs (two CUVs / SUVs in late 2018, second in 2019).
- Porsche Taycan
- GM SUV/CUV (likely Buick) and another EV (brand not public)

And competing with a base Model3:
- Mercedes EQA
- Nissan LEAF with big battery and TMS (2019 Model)
...

etc. etc.

I didn't even list future high-end EVs not available to North America (but brands selling well in Europe or Asia).

 

[aznt1217]

High-end EVs? Here are just a few examples what's coming over the next 12-24 months:

- Jaguar i-Pace (another Jaguar rumored for 2019, XJ EV)
- Volvo and Polestar EVs (various models starting in 2019, mostly CUVs)
- Mercedes EQC SUV (then an EQA, very similar to Model 3)
- BMW iX3 SUV and i4 (sedan)
- Audi EVs (two CUVs / SUVs in late 2018, second in 2019).
- Porsche Taycan
- GM SUV/CUV (likely Buick) and another EV (brand not public)

And competing with a base Model3:
- Mercedes EQA
- Nissan LEAF with big battery and TMS (2019 Model)
...

etc. etc.

I didn't even list future high-end EVs not available to North America (but brands selling well in Europe or Asia).

Yes because Tesla will stay stagnant for 12-24 months. Eyeroll*

For people who keep citing this as an argument, they are totally missing the point. The biggest competitors to EV's are ICE cars. This shouldn't be treated as a zero sum game because it's not. It's all a matter of preference and taste. The market is big enough for vehicles. The problem here is the argument of how much lead time Tesla has versus the incumbent automakers.

I'm in the camp that they have at least a 5 year lead time due to the integration of technology and manufacturing (vertical aspect).

 

[Krugerrand]

High-end EVs? Here are just a few examples what's coming over the next 12-24 months:

- Jaguar i-Pace (another Jaguar rumored for 2019, XJ EV)
- Volvo and Polestar EVs (various models starting in 2019, mostly CUVs)
- Mercedes EQC SUV (then an EQA, very similar to Model 3)
- BMW iX3 SUV and i4 (sedan)
- Audi EVs (two CUVs / SUVs in late 2018, second in 2019).
- Porsche Taycan
- GM SUV/CUV (likely Buick) and another EV (brand not public)

And competing with a base Model3:
- Mercedes EQA
- Nissan LEAF with big battery and TMS (2019 Model)
...

etc. etc.

I didn't even list future high-end EVs not available to North America (but brands selling well in Europe or Asia).

Heard this tale from you before. Been hearing it from you LITERALLY for SIX YEARS. SIX YEARS!! SIX...YEARS. YEARS!!

Now you want us to believe it’s just another 12-24 months out; this great swarm of Tesla competitors and killers. That’s cute.

Your fictional tale for the future is as ridiculous as it’s ever been.

 

[tftf]

Heard this tale from you before. Been hearing it from you LITERALLY for SIX YEARS. SIX YEARS!! SIX...YEARS. YEARS!!

Now you want us to believe it’s just another 12-24 months out; this great swarm of Tesla competitors and killers. That’s cute.

Your fictional tale for the future is as ridiculous as it’s ever been.

Considering that the Model 3 is not available in Europe and Asia until 2019 and that the Model Y is years away the list for 2018-2020 is important.

These competitors will eat mind- and marketshare from Tesla, and there will be additional high-speed charging networks (IONITY in Europe, Electrify America / Canada....) in place when these EVs hit the market.

My list above wasn't complete by far, just a few car models from the top of my head. Here's for example a full list of planned Audi EVs:

e-tron SUV (2018, unveil in September in SF, coming to NA in H1 2019)
e-tron Sportback (2019)
e-tron GT (2020, small volume)
e-tron compact SUV or sedan (2020)
e-tron SAV (2020)

Now you can laugh and say that Audi kept post-poning its EVs (except for the A3 PHEV), but the list above is near production, not just concepts that won't make it to market.

 

[Saghost]

High-end EVs? Here are just a few examples what's coming over the next 12-24 months:

- Jaguar i-Pace (another Jaguar rumored for 2019, XJ EV)
- Volvo and Polestar EVs (various models starting in 2019, mostly CUVs)
- Mercedes EQC SUV (then an EQA, very similar to Model 3)
- BMW iX3 SUV and i4 (sedan)
- Audi EVs (two CUVs / SUVs in late 2018, second in 2019).
- Porsche Taycan
- GM SUV/CUV (likely Buick) and another EV (brand not public)

And competing with a base Model3:
- Mercedes EQA
- Nissan LEAF with big battery and TMS (2019 Model)
...

etc. etc.

I didn't even list future high-end EVs not available to North America (but brands selling well in Europe or Asia).

That's a pretty good list of things that are promised for the next couple years. Some of them will probably even arrive on time, and a few might turn out to be everything people are hoping for based on the hype.

 

[Krugerrand]

Considering that the Model 3 is not available in Europe and Asia until 2019 and that the Model Y is years away the list for 2018-2020 is important.

These competitors will eat mind- and marketshare from Tesla, and there will be additional high-speed charging networks (IONITY in Europe, Electrify America / Canada....) in place when these EVs hit the market.

My list above wasn't complete by far, just a few car models from the top of my head. Here's for example a full list of planned Audi EVs:

e-tron SUV (2018, unveil in September in SF, coming to NA in H1 2019)
e-tron Sportback (2019)
e-tron GT (2020, small volume)
e-tron compact SUV or sedan (2020)
e-tron SAV (2020)

Now you can laugh and say that Audi kept post-poning its EVs (except for the A3 PHEV), but the list above is near production, not just concepts that won't make it to market.

Nah, laughing would take too much energy.

*yawn*

You keep clinging to that competition is right around the corner, any day now, just you wait and see, Tesla’s going down, the Tesla killers are coming, any second....keep clinging.

SIX YEARS, dude!!!! S I X long and arduous Y E A R S! You’ve been making this claim. Now just 1 - 2 more YEARS to wait you say....huh? You sure you don’t want to change that time frame? Sure? Last chance.

 

[skitown]

Was the Taycan supposed to use NCM 811s? They've just been delayed. Talk of this over in the General Investment thread.

SK innovation postpones the release of EV NCM 811 battery cells - Push EVs