EVNow
Well-Known Member
Does anyone have proper estimates for ASP & COGS for 3/Y and S&X for the past few quarters I can copy (or where I can find them). Want to try some simple projection for Q2.
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
- Start date
As long as the Chinese currency is pegged to the dollar, it effectively is the US dollar. I might make a difference if they unpegged the currency, but in that case Chinese exports would collapse.
damonbrodie
Member
For ASP I went here:
Tesla Car Price History
For COGS I followed the advice a few posts back about backing out the leasing (roughly 10% of S+X and roughly 3% of 3 + Y are leased) and then fitting the numbers against auto revenues. Same thing for costs.
For me, it made Q2 pretty ugly based on the 3 + Y. Assuming deliveries in the 440K range (quite a bit higher than Troy is reporting - we'll see what his next update says) and assuming 42.7K ASP for 3 + Y, against 37K for 3+Y COGS, I ended up with GAAP EPS in the $0.48 range for Q2. This is very low compared to the street consensus.
I ended up selling and I'll be buying back in when ASP trends back up.
EDIT: Zach said COGS for Q2 will decline, but the question is - how much. The new motor assembly is apparently going in which is somewhat cheaper to assemble, and Lithium prices are coming down. I assumed a drop of $600 vs. Q1 for 3+Y
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I'm looking for ASP estimates (based on actual revenue & lease numbers) for past quarters.
BTW, you can get actual lease numbers (rather than use rough %).
damonbrodie
Member
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Aggregate in the ER.
What I was wondering was whether Troy or TeslaDaily's Rob or others had published their estimates for earlier quarters (taking into account the actual revenue and COGS).
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Here's what I've estimated. I tweaked the S/X and 3/Y "% leased" numbers in the P&D report to force total leases to line up with the ER. I simply adjusted both percentages up or down by roughly the same amount. ASP and COGS are for all models combined, you can divide between S/X and 3/Y as you see fit.
| Period | S/X sold | 3/Y sold | ASP | COGS |
| Q1 2022 | 12,184 | 285,697 | 52,081 | 36,639 |
| Q2 2022 | 14,210 | 231,258 | 55,690 | 41,362 |
| Q3 2022 | 16,837 | 315,989 | 53,436 | 39,357 |
| Q4 2022 | 15,702 | 374,392 | 51,887 | 39,562 |
| Q1 2023 | 9,606 | 390,912 | 47,134 | 38,505 |
damonbrodie
Member
I've been using this:
Tesla Car Price History
2024 2024 History 2024 Trim,Max Range (EPA),Top Speed,0-60 Acc.,Max Tow Capacity (US),Pre-2024 Intro. Price,2023 EOY Price,Intro of M-3 Highland,M-3 LR $1K Increase,M-Y RWD & LR $1K "Temp" Price Cut,M-3 LR $0.5K Price Increase,M-3 LR $0.25K Price Increase,End M-Y RWD & LR "Temp" Price Cut,M-Y E...
I approximated 3 + Y ASP in Q1 to be $45.7K. Looking at the above there were price cuts in April for both the 3 and Y. I don't know if 3K is the right number, but it will be substantial, I think. I'm working on getting better regional pricing data to combine with regional delivery numbers to refine the ASP numbers.
What do you think the ASP for 3 + Y will be for Q2?
I've been using this:
Tesla Car Price History
2024 2024 History 2024 Trim,Max Range (EPA),Top Speed,0-60 Acc.,Max Tow Capacity (US),Pre-2024 Intro. Price,2023 EOY Price,Intro of M-3 Highland,M-3 LR $1K Increase,M-Y RWD & LR $1K "Temp" Price Cut,M-3 LR $0.5K Price Increase,M-3 LR $0.25K Price Increase,End M-Y RWD & LR "Temp" Price Cut,M-Y E...docs.google.com
I approximated 3 + Y ASP in Q1 to be $45.7K. Looking at the above there were price cuts in April for both the 3 and Y. I don't know if 3K is the right number, but it will be substantial, I think. I'm working on getting better regional pricing data to combine with regional delivery numbers to refine the ASP numbers.
What do you think the ASP for 3 + Y will be for Q2?
I think the current Model Y prices will be staying through the end of the quarter. There aren’t many Model Y configurations in New inventory in Greater LA; they’re mostly for the AWD version.
Model 3 SR however is definitely going to have another round of price cuts soon. Pretty much all configurations are available in inventory and have been so for the last 3 weeks. I’m guessing another 3k price cut will be implemented. If we assume 1/3 of Teslas sold are Model 3 SR, this should reduce ASP by another 1k. So 41.7k.
damonbrodie
Member
Any thoughts on the automotive COGS improvements for Q2? On the Q1 call Zach said something about the “costs really starting to improve in Q2”.
Given the overall drop in ASP I hope that COGS can improve proportionally, but many hopes the same for Q1.
It’s hard to guess when the lower Lirhium costs enter the picture.
Given the overall drop in ASP I hope that COGS can improve proportionally, but many hopes the same for Q1.
It’s hard to guess when the lower Lirhium costs enter the picture.
At present I simply reduce the previous quarter auto COGS/vehicle by 1% and the energy COGS/MWh by 2%. I started this approach with auto COGS several years ago and haven't checked how accurate the 1% is. Energy COGS seem quite erratic and I am guessing this is due to the fact that Megapack, powerwall and solar are all in there. I am expecting (hoping) that as Megapack ramps it will become the dominant factor in energy COGS.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
It's hard to estimate. Long term contracts can insulate you from spot price spikes, but you eventually have to sign new ones. This can ironically increase COGS even as spot prices decline from the peak. It depends on a dozen variables which are rarely disclosed. There are many other moving pieces. Austin and Berlin came online with poor utilization and gradually ramped toward good utilization. Where are we in that process? What percent of Tesla's cars have 4680s (full $45/kWh battery production subsidy), Nevada 2170s (subsidy split with Panasonic) and LFP/whatever is in the new 3-LR (apparently no subsidy)?
So, where are Tesla going to advertise? In the US (where Gary Black is expecting a price increase because inventory is so low)? In China (where YTD sales are higher than ever and where no further significant production ramp is expected), or in Europe where the unofficial inventory figures have increased by a paltry 500 vehicles or so whilst Berlin weekly production is 2k vehicles higher than last quarter?
I do not expect the Twitterati to be logical, but I do expect Tesla management to think things through rather than make kneejerk responses to the crowd.
Pointless spending coming up. Will this appear in SG&A?
I do not expect the Twitterati to be logical, but I do expect Tesla management to think things through rather than make kneejerk responses to the crowd.
Pointless spending coming up. Will this appear in SG&A?
The idea is that the clearing price for vehicle sales will increase more than the cost of advertising, so we'll sell the same number of vehicles regardless of advertising but hopefully make more money.
Model 3 RWD inventory in the US is huge. Inventory Discussion
Tesla advertising would be most effective in promoting the entry level units IMO.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I don't want to get into an ad discussion here - but I don't definitely look at it as "pointless" and I'm not some deranged "twitterati". Calling names does not add to meaningful discussion.
From a financial standpoint, I think of ads this way. Instead of dropping prices by X, they can drop it by X - delta and spend that delta on ads, generating same or more demand - that way eventually price drop + ad spend < price drop (without any ads).
I expect most ads to be online and may be some strategically placed live TV event ads. Online ads can be tracked easily to understand the impact.
Your justification for ads presumes that Tesla will need to drop prices to stimulate demand. My OP was asking the question 'Where (in which market) do we see evidence that there is a demand problem that needs to be addressed?'
@Hiline refers to Model3 RWD in the US. It would seem that this would be resolved in the short term by changing the M3 production mix and in the medium term by the M3 Highland refresh. S/X sales may also need some help, particularly in China and Europe where they have been absent from the market for almost 3 years and it does not appear that there have been significant efforts to generate a buzz so that people are aware they are back again. Ads might be an effective way of giving these models a kickstart in those markets.
Lastly @EVNow, my post does not contain the word deranged. Please do not try to put your words into my mouth.
