Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

All of this innovative engineering change has been accomplished through a vision. Without the vision, it all dies on the vine (see several historical auto/tech references and look back at years of CES widgets/starts) where good tech died in its infancy without an enduring and cohesive vision to 'see it through'.

To be clear, Tesla doesn't just make a car, they make/engineer/design/produce 'nearly' all the innovative pieces/parts/sub-assemblies (they don't make the commodity pieces like tires, paint, various adhesives, plastic pellets, textiles, connectors or the monitors/screens, but that is another story...) vertically integrated as well as 'nearly' all of the code (I actually can't think of code they don't write themselves at the moment though, maybe some Kuka code is unaltered by Tesla devs...). And if I worked for Sandy, I'd have them put the Tesla parts in a pile and non-Tesla parts in a pile and deep dive into why Tesla hasn't done in-sourced them yet.

NO OTHER AUTOMAKERS DO THIS! (sorry to yell), but folks just don't understand this.

So, Tesla is not as much a car manufacturer, as they are "THE SOURCE" of the creation of 'nearly' all the innovation that go into the car as well as the production process, sales process, support process, update process, connectivity/services and the long standing belief that marketing is a near useless vestige of improper product/customer focus.

I'd assert: Without Tesla's vision, EVs would simply NOT exist in any meaningful/material way.

Well, the car's infotainment/mgm't system runs Linux with Tesla's commits.

 

[dhanson865]

How? They are already selling every one that they can make. And they don't have the battery supply to make more at this point.

OK, how about "they could raise prices if they did this" instead of "I genuinely feel they'd sell more EV's if they did this".

It would make Ford EVs easier to sell, if they are already sold out it would raise prices (dealer markup, and eventually a change in MSRP).

 

[TSLA Siempre]

You do realize that Tesla designed the gigapress in conjunction with IRDA right? They literally helped make the thing. And their metallurgy team developed a custom alloy needed to use it.

They just might have some IP and secret sauce there.

And regardless, Tesla expects that other competitors may adopt/copy its technologies. But with what time lag? In the end, as Elon has said, it's the pace of innovation and iteration that matters.

 

[scaesare]

That's mainly because Ghosen tried to do it on the cheap, likely because he had to show a profit the first year. So take an existing body, add some batteries, fix the design in areas that didn't work. (The bug eyes are because without them the wind noise was terrible).

Yeah, there were undoubtedly factors in the Leaf's uncompelling design... the fact remains that didn't really push EV adoption forward as he might have hoped.

 

[Ogre]

More charts

View attachment 896675

This is the 1-2 punch. It’s a roadmap to how Tesla increases TAM to 100% of the US auto market.

PS: The truck curve is only slightly to the right of this one. Easy to see why Tesla priced the Cybertruck the way they did originally.

 

[chiptoe]

The world has already decided the DC charging standard, and it’s not NACS. Even the name is very limited, as the world does not revolve around US. It’s exactly like continuing to promote CDMA after the world decided on GSM. Interested, haha. When Telsa jacks up our supercharger rates, Tesla owners have no other options for fast DC charging, jut another Elon checkmate move, suck it rest of the world

Tesla has the CCS adapter -it works fine (and gives me access to alternatives), but it is ridiculously big and cumbersome. Why would this country not pick something better, cheaper and more convenient to use given there is no real standard at the moment?

 

[jerry33]

That’s where Boring Company fits into this picture for our investments and the Tesla mission. Tesla is aiming for sustainable, clean, safe, high-speed, affordable terrestrial transportation.

I desperately want North American cities to become more walkable and bikeable. I spent most of the last decade not having a car and walking or biking or taking the bus as my primary means of personal transportation. Years before I began delving into Tesla, I have been asking myself how we can do this, against apparently overwhelming odds and extremely powerful cultural inertia and self-reinforcing dominance of car dependency.

Well, how do we do it? Underground autonomous electric vehicles and accompanying cheap tunnel networks. Look at Los Angeles or Houston or Atlanta on a satellite image. The majority of the land area of these sprawling concrete jungles is allocated to roads, parking, and marginal land around the roads and parking lots that’s either boring lawns or ugly patches of weeds and invasive species. Car critics including me have been shouting about these problems and inefficiency for years. What most are missing is that subterranean AEVs, while apparently just an extension of the same badly designed system, actually have the potential to wipe out the need for about 80-90% of the need for this expensive, ugly, and generally problematic surface infrastructure and in doing so also wipe out an astonishing array of economic, social, environmental and even national security problems all in one fell swoop. High-velocity motorized transport is fine, as long as it’s cheap, organized as a Personal Rapid Transit architecture, does not emit toxic pollution, and is separated from the rest of the living space by being underground. The Boring-Tesla symbiosis could solve almost all of the problems that have befallen North America (and to a lesser extent the rest of the rich areas of the world) in the last century since the ill-advised urban planning decisions of the 1920s set into motion the development of the transportation system we now suffer from today. The only problem I don’t see it solving is obesity and sedentariness, but even that it’ll probably help with somewhat if it gets more people outside walking and biking.

Las Vegas, a typical mid-sized American city with virtually no investment or ridership in traditional mass transit solutions at any point in the last century, is suddenly moving quickly towards a huge Boring Co Loop system faster than the rate of construction of subway and light rail infrastructure on this entire continent. This is happening with enthusiastic, unanimous, bipartisan approval within the local government; no taxpayer funding; and enthusiastic support from local businesses and trade unions. It will be better, cheaper, faster, more reliable, more inclusive to all socioeconomic classes, safer, and even more energy efficient than busses and trains. This is what early stages of a huge disruption looks like.

Tesla EVs are only half of the story, and this complementary element is profoundly underappreciated by the stock market. Has any pro institutional analyst mentioned this colossal long-term tailwind even ONCE in their research notes and public interviews? Even the smart ones who understand Tesla, like Pierre Ferragu and Alex Potter and Colin Rusch? Are the big retail YouTube/Twitter/TMC analysts discussing this much? Not at all from what I’ve seen.

If I as an investor got the opportunity to ask ten questions to Tesla management, three of them would be:

1. How is Prufrock development going and how do you view Boring Co’s scaling and cost trajectory in the next twenty years?
2. When will autonomous operation begin and what top speeds can we actually expect?
3. How close together will robotaxis in the tunnels be able to safely operate?

I’m working on essays about this to present a thesis on this topic but I urge TSLA investors to dig into this some more on their own. I’m still estimating that a robotaxi operating in a Loop has roughly triple the financial net present value compared to a surface robotaxi and Vegas Loop robotaxi service is almost certain to be the first instance of Tesla autonomous ride-hailing, possibly by several years since we still don’t really know how hard true Level 5 autonomy is with Tesla’s approach.

#2 depends on politics. It's technically possible now.

 

[KBF]

But, But, But that never happens we've been told. The Great Wall of Wall Street would never allow criminal activity like that. Mass Manipulators.

I wonder who Interactive Brokers pissed off to 'get caught' - they must have broken some sort of "pirate's code."

I'm glad at least someone is getting charged - that's a positive step. My optimistic side thinks there are some ethical people involved somewhere in the system... Even if many get away with cheating and stealing.

I started watching Madoff on Netflix - as disheartening as that story is (what people get away with...), anything that raises awareness of the kinds of shenanigans Wall Street performs is helpful, and maybe we can very slowly make some progress. Computerization/connectivity has helped make some things a bit more transparent to the public.

(BTW - anyone else here watch Madoff, and is it a relatively accurate picture of reality?)

Edit: not holding my breath waiting for real change, just HODL'ing my TSLA so that it's harder for the pirates to make money off of me...

 

[jerry33]

I wonder who Interactive Brokers pissed off to 'get caught' - they must have broken some sort of "pirate's code."

I'm glad at least someone is getting charged - that's a positive step. My optimistic side thinks there are some ethical people involved somewhere in the system... Even if many get away with cheating and stealing.

I started watching Madoff on Netflix - as disheartening as that story is (what people get away with...), anything that raises awareness of the kinds of shenanigans Wall Street performs is helpful, and maybe we can very slowly make some progress. Computerization/connectivity has helped make some things a bit more transparent to the public.

(BTW - anyone else here watch Madoff, and is it a relatively accurate picture of reality?)

They basically got a $10 parking ticket.

 

[scaesare]

You do realize that Tesla designed the gigapress in conjunction with IRDA right? They literally helped make the thing. And their metallurgy team developed a custom alloy needed to use it.

They just might have some IP and secret sauce there.

Oh, and to add to my own post here.... not only did Tesla design it along with IRDA, it was Tesla who approached a couple of manufacturers about the gigapress concept, and only IRDA returned their calls.

So it was literally Tesla's idea.

 

[bkp_duke]

Interactive Brokers Fined $5.5 Million for Naked Short Selling Violations

One of the largest retail brokerage firms, Interactive Brokers agreed to pay a $5.5 million penalty for violations related to “naked” short selling.

www.wsj.com

A unit of Interactive Brokers Group Inc., IBKR -0.17%decrease; red down pointing triangle one of the largest U.S. retail brokerages, has been fined $5.5 million over allegations that it broke federal rules on the “naked” short selling of stocks thousands of times over a three-year period.

Toothless fine. That's like . . . what? 5 minutes of short selling activity for these crooks?

 

[jabloomf1230]

Oh, and to add to my own post here.... not only did Tesladeisgn ith along with IRDA, it was Tesla who approached a couple of manufacturers about the gigapress concept, and only IRDA returned their calls.

So it was literally Tesla's idea.

Or Tesla's irdea, so to speak.

 

[Mengy]

Toothless fine. That's like . . . what? 5 minutes of short selling activity for these crooks?

That's why naked short selling is so rampant. The penalties for doing so, IF you even get caught, are laughable compared to the profits.

It's basically a light slap on the finger.

 

[bkp_duke]

Tesla has the CCS adapter -it works fine (and gives me access to alternatives), but it is ridiculously big and cumbersome. Why would this country not pick something better, cheaper and more convenient to use given there is no real standard at the moment?

In one word: pride.

Traditional auto don't want to give Tesla any kudos.

 

[wipster]

OT, but stunning! Great thread, looks like a killer wrap especially for black, grey, and white Teslas:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615029078150754305

 

[dhanson865]

Well Ghosen's other problems aside... while he may have been a fan of EV's, his execution left something to be desired. It was a bit of a weirdmobile and had bad pack thermal management.

One of the things Elon realized that really pushed things forward was that you had to make EV's practical, performant, affordable, and stylish. Then they'll appeal to the masses as a whole, and not just a tree-hugging[1] segment that's willing to drive something that looks like a bug to save the environment.

[1] I don't use that term pejoratively, and happily count myself amongst those who think trees are pretty darn cool...

It's spelled Ghosn and he wasn't the guy responsible for the Leaf design.
Ghosn just took credit for it as CEO, he wasn't the real champion of the Leaf.

Carlos Ghosn was *a* champion of the Leaf. He was one, but he's no Elon. He wasn't sleeping on the factory floor, looking at parts, reviewing code.

Andy Palmer was closer to that (reviewing the project, not at Elon skill levels but was way closer to decision making than Ghosn), anyone that doesn't say Andy Palmer is the guy behind the Leaf is quoting revisionist history or just plain never understood who did what.

I'm saying Andy Palmer did more to convince Ghosn and manage those below him than Ghosn did. Somewhere along the way Ghosn approved the project and it became Andy Palmers responsibility. And Andy Palmer was the fall guy they got rid off when the packs started frying in the Arizona Heat.

Nissan's Andy Palmer discusses Leaf battery degradation crisis [w/video] - Autoblog (note the Video has been pulled from youtube)

Back in the day Andy Palmer had to champion the Leaf because his daughter had breathing problems exacerbated by smog from gas vehicles.

This is what Wikipedia has to say about it:

At the 2011 Tokyo Motor Show, Palmer said that "it's complete bullshit" to assume that electric vehicles move the CO2 issue to the powerstation. Palmer conceded that EVs could pollute even less if electricity generation would be made greener across the globe.[24][25]

Palmer was described as the "main proponent of electric vehicles" at Nissan and led on the development of the LEAF electric car.[26][27] Bloomberg described Palmer as "instrumental in developing the Japanese carmaker's battery-powered LEAF."[28]

quote of Andy Palmer from one of those footnotes:

"If we look at figures from the World Health Organization, more and more people are being diagnosed with things like asthma every day.

"Undoubtedly, one of the causes of asthma are pollutants in the air. Now, if the electric car simply moved the polluting source from the city to somewhere else, isn't that a good thing?

"If our kids can grow up without suffering from asthma and other childhood diseases caused by pollution, isn't that by itself a good thing? I think it is.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Just spit-balling. It will be a while before we have EV trucks that can handle what an F350 can handle. Sure those trucks could stay on diesel, but who will build them if the ICE infrastructure and manufacturing base begins to collapse?

Nikola of course. Enter Trevor Milton, from prison.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615380643382464513

 

[2daMoon]

But, But, But that never happens we've been told. The Great Wall of Wall Street would never allow criminal activity like that. Mass Manipulators.

If FINRA really want to hurt them, rather than a minuscule fine, only allow them to trade shares that they actually own, for a month.

 

[GOVA]

Yah. Not very clear. My apologies. I suck at writing.

Adaptors allow us to charge at other DC fast chargers. And many other charge chains have cheaper charging than tesla superchargers. So adaptors allow the driver to select a less expensive charging solution. This in my opinion will keep tesla from raising their rates too high.

Hope that helps.

Thanks. Still a disagree.

Which chains exactly have cheaper rates than Tesla superchargers?
Also, are you talking about charging Teslas at superchargers or other brands there?