Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thesmokingman]

Tesla produced 1.37M cars, delivered 1.31M cars. They delivered 95.6% of the cars they made. Looks like demand problem to me.

Dude stop it with the facts! /s

 

[2daMoon]

It's good when Tesla benefits from legacy advertising but that's not what was proposed.

I must admit, the "I disagree" statement was only meant as a way to emphasize the jocularity cleverly hidden within the balance of the post.

In all actuality, I was in agreement with your post and had given it a Thumbs Up.

 

[Ogre]

Tesla produced 1.37M cars, delivered 1.31M cars. They delivered 95.6% of the cars they made. Looks like demand problem to me. Next time I am hoping Tesla purchase some teleportation devices for their gigafactories so we can have 0 cars in transit.

Analysts are going to have to start accounting for 5-10% of quarterly volume in transit/ inventory at the end of every quarter. This quarter they modeled 0-5%.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla produced 1.37M cars, delivered 1.31M cars. They delivered 95.6% of the cars they made. Looks like demand problem to me. Next time I am hoping Tesla purchase some teleportation devices for their gigafactories so we can have 0 cars in transit.

there are many quarters where they deliver more than they produced, so it isn't that simple

 

[TSLA Siempre]

Tesla produced 1.37M cars, delivered 1.31M cars. They delivered 95.6% of the cars they made. Looks like demand problem to me. Next time I am hoping Tesla purchase some teleportation devices for their gigafactories so we can have 0 cars in transit.

Even Elon suggested there was a demand issue. He ascribed it to macro environment/fed.

 

[2daMoon]

Analysts are going to have to start accounting for 5-10% of quarterly volume in transit/ inventory at the end of every quarter. This quarter they modeled 0-5%.

Their repeated inability to recognize how the effect of exponential growth makes numbers like these bigger QoQ without necessarily indicating a problem only illustrates how short-term their perspective is.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The 4680 ramp is probably important for the Gen3 cars.

The Generation 3 cars will almost certainly use LFP battery packs. The 4680 ramp is about nickel chemistry (it was just confirmed last week that the new cathode plant now under construction at Giga Texas will manufacture nickel cathodes).

The 4680 ramp is probably NOT important for the Gen3 cars. Will 4680s eventually use the LFP chemistry? Possibly, but again, that's well after the ramp. Tesla will only manufacture cells if they can not buy them from suppliers. Right now, the BYD 'blade' and CATL structural packs meet the spec needed by Tesla, at the price Tesla needs.

Now the game has shifted slightly, demand in China combined with logistics out of Shanghai appear to be an issue.

How much of Shanghai's logistics issues this year were covid related? Did you see the charts this summer of the ports with 2,000 ships waiting to load or unload? Who is better positioned to solve logistics than China? They literally moved mountains to reclaim Lin Gang Special Area from the sea (that's the industrial zone which hosts Giga Shanghai).

I submit most of these issues are temporary, and will be solved now that China is moving beyond its problematic "Covid-zero" policy. The Chinese mean business.

 

[Ogre]

Their repeated inability to recognize how the effect of exponential growth makes numbers bigger without necessarily indicating a problem only illustrates how short-term their perspective is.

In fairness… most estimates from TMCers and folks largely trusted here had the same issue. I personally thought the number of inventory trucks would go down and said as much.

I think most of the estimates are herd-think. I suspect half of these guys just regurgitate Troy’s numbers or other community numbers with a slight bend based on their personal bias. Very few seem to do original research.

As much as people are tough on Ark here lately, they seem to put in the legwork.

 

[Singuy]

there are many quarters where they deliver more than they produced, so it isn't that simple

Yes, but they are unwinding the wave which is not just one quarter at a time but for the entire rest of Tesla's delivery existence. Before they build up inventory Q1, Q2, and then draw down inventory Q3 and Q4. That's a wave in itself. Now they are dealing with millions of cars.

 

[MC3OZ]

The 4680 ramp is probably NOT important for the Gen3 cars. Will 4680s eventually use the LFP chemistry? Possibly, but again, that's well after the ramp.

Tesla are sourcing raw materials for Iron cathodes, there is a long lead time on that.

I agree that the Cathode plant at Austin is for Nickel cathodes for Model Y, Cybertruck and possibly the Semi.

4680 LFP would be for energy storage and Gen3 cars IMO, and possibly at a different factory,

4680 LFP in North America might be a high priority due to the IRA, if true, that is the IRA working as intended.

The IRA will be a factor for US Gen3 cars, Chinese LFP can't qualify under the IRA.

For Chinese made Gen3 exported worldwide, the IRA is not a factor.

Gen3 may start in China but export volumes would be subject to the current logistics constraints. Given time, logistics can be improved.

I submit most of these issues are temporary, and will be solved now that China is moving beyond its problematic "Covid-zero" policy. The Chinese mean business.

Yes, I agree on this, sometimes problems are impossible to solve in a few weeks, but over a sufficiently long timeframe are easier to solve.

The Chinese want to export cars, and their government will work hard to ensure that is possible,

 

[Bet TSLA]

Is there anything out there that is clearly a lie?

Here are a couple I posted about in that other thread. There are many more. These are just exemplars.
Elon lies about Ukraine aid.
Elon lies about Fauci.
I haven't seen any lies about Tesla or his other businesses, although you'll see many people claim he's been lying about FSD since day one. Personally, I believe he's just overoptimistic on that topic.

If you want to include Elon's constant amplification of lies where he just says "Wow!" or "!!" or memes for 100% and on target, well then there are hundreds.

If you can't see this, well, you should have your vision checked. And if Elon believes that his credibility regarding Tesla isn't affected by his constant lying about political topics, he's incredibly naive.

 

[Discoducky]

You know, it is 2013 all over again.

I'm all in and all I want is better tomorrow and Tesla is the best chance at that.

So, here's to the dreamers and the believers!

Here's to the engineers and the managers!

Let's bring them bear all that the universe can take!

Bring.It.On!

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

(it was just confirmed last week that the new cathode plant now under construction at Giga Texas will manufacture nickel cathodes).

I must have missed this. Where/how was nickel cathode confirmed?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

It was epic. You guys are just idiots and cant see past your noses. See you on the other side. Lord Elon rules!

 

[EVNow]

And if Elon believes that his credibility regarding Tesla isn't affected by his constant lying about political topics, he's incredibly naive.

Problem isn’t that he is lying about political topics, problem is that he actually believes in them.

Well, if he didn’t believe in them and actually lied, it would be a different problem.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's freaking December. Tesla may not want to shut down, but I'd bet many suppliers, even in China, pretty much write off the last two weeks with holidays, vacations, etc.

The traditional Winter break in Shanghai is Chinese New Year (the whole country shuts down for a week, and most workers travel home possibly for the only time in a year). So not Xmas.

This year, December was all about covid and ending the lockdowns. Many suppliers were affected with either slowdowns or shutdowns of production. It's better to take a break, and move forward at full speed when ready.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I must have missed this. Where/how was nickel cathode confirmed?

The nickel cathode info came directly from Elon during his Twitter Spaces interview on Dec 22, 2022. This summary is from Jordan Giesige twitter thread: (there's Youtube audio elsewhere)

The Limiting Factor on Twitter: "15) Cathode factory in Austin is for a Nickel chemistries. 16) Expecting some reduction in cost in battery materials. There's latency in cost reductions. 17) Tesla spending capital as fast as possible without being wasteful. 18) Close to picking a new factory location." / Twitter​

 

[PeterJA]

Interesting observation on posts from my LinkedIn contacts at Tesla for the past few days. There is a wave of incredibly upbeat and even emotional posts from insiders that remind me the uber-bullish mood I shared last time in October 2019 in this thread just prior to the amazing TSLA runup. Of course they are not sharing anything, but they must know something is up.

Something is definitely up. Joy among Tesla insiders could be from any of several things we can't know about yet: Gen3, Cybertruck, Optimus, Energy products/services, new factories, new battery chemistries, totally new products/services, etc.

However, I do know about one breakthrough that is coming soon, which analysts and bears and whiners are generally ignoring. We are days away from the ramping release of FSD Beta 11 and the unleashing of Dojo (unless the latter happened already).

As I may have mentioned before, FSD will change everything. I know many folks understandably won't believe it unless they see it, but let me warn y'all again: Hang onto your heinies.

 

[Singuy]

Here are a couple I posted about in that other thread. There are many more. These are just exemplars.
Elon lies about Ukraine aid.
Elon lies about Fauci.
I haven't seen any lies about Tesla or his other businesses, although you'll see many people claim he's been lying about FSD since day one. Personally, I believe he's just overoptimistic on that topic.

If you want to include Elon's constant amplification of lies where he just says "Wow!" or "!!" or memes for 100% and on target, well then there are hundreds.

If you can't see this, well, you should have your vision checked. And if Elon believes that his credibility regarding Tesla isn't affected by his constant lying about political topics, he's incredibly naive.

Pretty sure misinformation is not a lie. A lie requires the subject to know the statement is false, and or has no intentions on acting on what is said. Elon seems to have been fed some misinformation since I'm sure he doesn't have the time to investigate everything (but can't help himself giving his 2 cents). Things that comes out of his mouth are not lies because he believes them to be true and/or well source. He may be spreading other people's lies because other people does have the intention of spreading falsehoods.

 

[dhanson865]

For all of you asking for free or reduced price 3rd row in the Model Y did you know it lowers the range of the vehicle?

Those of us waiting for a SR/SR+/MR whatever cheaper shorter range Model Y want lower price not more seats.