Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ElectricIAC]

On another note here’s a playmate for
The next time. TEH Bill Miller, IMHO always overrated. Of course promoted by Henry Blodget/BI

Legendary investor Bill Miller says he's shorting Tesla because the EV maker has a looming competition problem: 'If it goes up, I'll short more'

"The difference between Tesla and other technology stocks is it's selling into a bad business. The auto industry globally is a bad business."

markets.businessinsider.com

Let him keep shorting, maybe they’ll wind up wearing a barrel like in the old cartoons.

 

[mongo]

GBP 2180 = USD 2647, so let's call that $2650 to again be conservative in Tesla's favor.

Now let's pull up that Tesla cost graphic in the Tesla marketing brochure. I've added a scale bar on the cost axis (green blocks) and plotted the line for $2650, and we can also see that Tesla are suggesting that this system should cost $2810. It turns out that is a 6% cost overstatement in Tesla's advantage. Funny that.

The document is dated 2022. Here's the currency chart from xe for the past year.

Using your estimate of 2180 vs $2810 only requires an exchange rate of 1.29:1 . Not unreasonable (especially since Tesla's data would primarily be US prices).

Now I also added on GBP 80 for these vague "supporting equipment" that Tesla claim are required, though neither of us can think of anything beyond perhaps a GBP 30 wifi aerial. So we have GBP 50 in hand in case anyone is arguing. Total = GBP 1300 + 800 + 80 = GBP 2180.

Looking at 2,180
If you can't think of what supporting equipment is, shouldn't it also be removed from Tesla's cost to keep things even?

Regarding ease of set up, test, and repair what could be better faster ad easier than a one-per-module optimiser that tells you precisely how each solar panel and each optimiser is operating at all times, and alerts you to issues in either the install or during operation. As opposed to suspecting a problem somewhere on a string .... now get on the roof and find it .......

The easiest part to install is no part...
The easiest part to setup is no part...
Half the connections to make is easier than double (assuming optimizers are not built into the panel).

As to ease of repair: Using a binary search, a 32 panel string only requires 5 points to be checked to find a fault. Isn't a failed connection between optimizers going to require the same (or more) effort to locate than a failure between panels? (And again, half the connections to fail).

 

[Max Plaid]

On another note here’s a playmate for
The next time. TEH Bill Miller, IMHO always overrated. Of course promoted by Henry Blodget/BI

Legendary investor Bill Miller says he's shorting Tesla because the EV maker has a looming competition problem: 'If it goes up, I'll short more'

"The difference between Tesla and other technology stocks is it's selling into a bad business. The auto industry globally is a bad business."

markets.businessinsider.com

Worth the read, such a blinkered, myopic view

tl:dr - Tesla is losing EV market share...

 

[Mengy]

On another note here’s a playmate for
The next time. TEH Bill Miller, IMHO always overrated. Of course promoted by Henry Blodget/BI

Legendary investor Bill Miller says he's shorting Tesla because the EV maker has a looming competition problem: 'If it goes up, I'll short more'

"The difference between Tesla and other technology stocks is it's selling into a bad business. The auto industry globally is a bad business."

markets.businessinsider.com

He says Tesla is just a car company and that's all it is. Sure today most of the TSLA valuation is autos, but that is changing and will NOT be the case down the road. The more I look at Tesla Energy the more I think it might be larger than Tesla Autos in revenues by the end of the decade. Then there's FSD, and Optimus, and Robotaxis, and eventually software sales in the Tesla Store for the cars, and Insurance...

It seems to me like he is only looking at right now while ignoring tomorrow...

 

[thx1139]

He says Tesla is just a car company and that's all it is. Sure today most of the TSLA valuation is autos, but that is changing and will NOT be the case down the road. The more I look at Tesla Energy the more I think it might be larger than Tesla Autos in revenues by the end of the decade. Then there's FSD, and Optimus, and Robotaxis, and eventually software sales in the Tesla Store for the cars, and Insurance...

It seems to me like he is only looking at right now while ignoring tomorrow...

So many of these takes also believe EV sales will behave just like ICE sales will behave. If the economy is weaker and new car sales drop say 20% YoY then both ICE and EV will drop 20% YoY. I just dont see it. Believe you will see ICE sales drop and EVs just keep growing because of overall production. I dont believe traditional manufacturers will ramp EV production as fast if they dont sell as many of the cars that give them profit. They will slow EV ramp because ICE sales dropping because of economy. Leaving more for EV only manufacturers.

 

[2daMoon]

While the sun is shining so brightly on this solar-biased thread this morning, SMR's latest video adds to that brilliant illumination with coverage of JPR007's future outlook for EV and BESS growth, presented in Steven's unique style.

Compared to many of his videos of late, this one is more upbeat. (rather than just being dismissive of Bears)

 

[Rotte]

He says Tesla is just a car company and that's all it is. Sure today most of the TSLA valuation is autos, but that is changing and will NOT be the case down the road. The more I look at Tesla Energy the more I think it might be larger than Tesla Autos in revenues by the end of the decade. Then there's FSD, and Optimus, and Robotaxis, and eventually software sales in the Tesla Store for the cars, and Insurance...

It seems to me like he is only looking at right now while ignoring tomorrow...

He looks older than me, so maybe "right now" is all he's concerned himself with. He may be wearing diapers in 5 years.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla seem to be broadcasting FUD about 50% and 100% failure rates but I can't quite see how they run the calc on that. You can make your own call.

Maybe you should visit the energy forum here. People have experienced 200% failure rates on SolarEdge inverters. (All of their original inverters failed, then their replacement inverters failed as well.) For example: 3 SolarEdge 18XB7 Failures

I haven't seen a lot of reports about optimizer failures, but I'm sure Tesla has data on the failures that they have had to deal with.

 

[Mengy]

So CPI came in good this morning....ANNNNDDD the market tanks.


Yep, that makes sense!

 

[Madmolecule]

The shares have only dropped 75%. just normal investing from my fake kitchen, but I turned my cap around so I should recoup my investment in 10 or twenty years. Could I at least convert my FSD investment in the future instead of investing in a product, like I was told it was, to stock?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

He looks older than me, so maybe "right now" is all he's concerned himself with. He may be wearing diapers in 5 years.

Or Sooner, after $TSLA moons again and he's left with 'diapers' to wear

 

[lascavarian]

For those so interested, Cramer equating TSMC improvements as key to F & GM delivering 30 to 50k EV/month. This equates semiconductors as the gating factor.

Seems to me it is dealers and batteries more than chips which is the mountain to overcome for F and GM. YMMV

 

[BornToFly]

Wow, quite the sell-off. Does Powell talk today?

 

[jim0266]

Wow, quite the sell-off. Does Powell talk today?

No. https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

 

[petit_bateau]

The document is dated 2022. Here's the currency chart from xe for the past year.
View attachment 894861
Using your estimate of 2180 vs $2810 only requires an exchange rate of 1.29:1 . Not unreasonable (especially since Tesla's data would primarily be US prices).



Looking at 2,180
If you can't think of what supporting equipment is, shouldn't it also be removed from Tesla's cost to keep things even?
View attachment 894864



The easiest part to install is no part...
The easiest part to setup is no part...
Half the connections to make is easier than double (assuming optimizers are not built into the panel).

As to ease of repair: Using a binary search, a 32 panel string only requires 5 points to be checked to find a fault. Isn't a failed connection between optimizers going to require the same (or more) effort to locate than a failure between panels? (And again, half the connections to fail).

- I used Currency Converter | Foreign Exchange Rates | OANDA today, since we checked the price today. That was the price out of a mom'n'pop shop that only does 50 installs per year, approx half using SE. Buying power zilch. And UK is not ordinarily thought of as being a low cost marketplace !

- Re fault finding : I know the average installer would rather come to site already knowing what the faulty item was, go drectly to the module, and replace it with the spare the yhad pre-ordered. As opposed to arrive, start binary count faultfinding up on the roof in the string, figure out what was wrong, go away, get part, come back another day ........

- Parts are there for a reason. Next you'll be proposing we put all cars on two wheels, or three wheels. Don't get me wrong I'd pick a string inverter for utility scale solar. But for rooftop solar on a lot of housing stock I'd go with either optimisers or on-module-microinverters (actually I am so far very against microinverters, they do have horrible failure rates). But the real reason that Tesla have gone with this is that they are still pursuing the solar tile nonsense and it is cost-prohibitive to put optimisers on those. You know that and I know that, but oddly enough it doesn't get a mention in that marketing white paper.

- Tesla must know what their additional required kit is. We've added an allowance for the only bit we know of in a SE install, plus some extra (and yes, we do know how to do an install). So no, that item counts against Tesla.

Overall this appears to be a decent inverter from Tesla. But it is not a game changer for the industry. It might help Tesla Energy start climbing out of the darn great smoking impact crater they have made of their residential offering, but that's about it.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

He says Tesla is just a car company and that's all it is. Sure today most of the TSLA valuation is autos, but that is changing and will NOT be the case down the road. The more I look at Tesla Energy the more I think it might be larger than Tesla Autos in revenues by the end of the decade. Then there's FSD, and Optimus, and Robotaxis, and eventually software sales in the Tesla Store for the cars, and Insurance...

It seems to me like he is only looking at right now while ignoring tomorrow...

If autos are a structurally bad business to be in, why is Apple wanting to get in it? Apple would not purposely add a massive business only for it to be a perpetual drag on what is otherwise a highly profitable business. They see it as an important path, albeit a difficult one, to pursue.

 

[BornToFly]

No. https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

Great. He doesn't but lots of other speakers the next two days....

 

[BornToFly]

Macros Green!

F Green!

GM Green!

Tesla.....


Oh never mind.

 

[Cosmacelf]

So many of these takes also believe EV sales will behave just like ICE sales will behave. If the economy is weaker and new car sales drop say 20% YoY then both ICE and EV will drop 20% YoY. I just dont see it. Believe you will see ICE sales drop and EVs just keep growing because of overall production. I dont believe traditional manufacturers will ramp EV production as fast if they dont sell as many of the cars that give them profit. They will slow EV ramp because ICE sales dropping because of economy. Leaving more for EV only manufacturers.

Yes, this is the short sellers disconnect right here. If you believe Tesla EVs will be recession resilient and take market share away from ICE during a downturn, then TSLA is a buy. If you think Tesla sales will crash along with ICE sales during a downturn, then it is a short.

Incidentally, depending on what Rivian’s financials (margins) look like when they get released in February, it too could be a good buy right now since they too will maintain strong sales no matter what the economy does (within limits).

 

[Cosmacelf]

For those so interested, Cramer equating TSMC improvements as key to F & GM delivering 30 to 50k EV/month. This equates semiconductors as the gating factor.

Seems to me it is dealers and batteries more than chips which is the mountain to overcome for F and GM. YMMV

Cramer is, once again, an idiot.