Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

This was my thinking as well when they [GM] came out with the Hummer 2+ years ago to premier their new battery platform. After thinking about it a bit, I just don’t think they have the engineering talent to pull it off.

Yeah, not just GM, everyone. I was surprised when Rivian didn‘t use a heat pump for instance. They had, what, 8+ years of engineering time before production?

You listen to the engineers they have on slick Ford and Rivian marketing videos and you go, ok, that sounds like an ordinary competent engineer. You listen to Tesla ones, and you go, that person’s a rockstar.

Speaking of, Tesla’s heat pump (and uber integration) gets the spotlight in Teslas latest 3 minute video (which I’m sure has been posted here already).

 

[Nocturnal]

Yeah, not just GM, everyone. I was surprised when Rivian didn‘t use a heat pump for instance. They had, what, 8+ years of engineering time before production?

Just baffling. Anyone who has driven a non-heat pump EV in very cold weather can see how inefficient a resistance heater is. My 3 doesn't have a heat pump but my Y does...despite the size etc. the Y is more efficient in the cold.

 

[GOVA]

Every time I see a new EV without a frunk, I don't care really at all about the lost storage, but I do immediately think they built a bloated engineering mess. It just tells me they are either A. Lazy, or B. Unimaginative and require 3rd party suppliers to do anything of value.

Real FRUNK story.

Sometime ago I was buying 2x24 packs. Put both in the frunk. A lady from nearby car opens her window and says WTF - why did you put this in your engine. I had to do lots of expanation and demos. It was a real shocker to people that watched.

 

[phoggy123]

Real FRUNK story.

Sometime ago I was buying 2x24 packs. Put both in the frunk. A lady from nearby car opens her window and says WTF - why did you put this in your engine. I had to do lots of expanation and demos. It was a real shocker to people that watched.

Truth...I actually use the Frunk on long trips for odds and ends that I want access to easily. I dont think I've ever used it for groceries and staples like beer though.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

Why is that suddenly news?

It's not new news. However, it is absolutely a relevant question for investors. When a CEO sells a significant stake in his company's shares while possibly in possession of adverse material non public information, that should raise questions. He needs to answer them as he is accountable to shareholders. Hopefully, there is a good explanation. Needing the money to shore up Twitter in case of a calamity is not a valid reason. That's equivalent to saying "I really needed the money" so I did something I shouldn't have done.

 

[Nocturnal]

Fun graphic I found.

 

[SOULPEDL]

My worst performing option ever, first cut up into 3 pieces (split), then just bled out. I have a few more but much closer to the money and further out.
It's like clearing the books, moving on now...

 

[Cosmacelf]

Ha, well here’s my frunk story. Went on a ski trip with my two boys, and two friends in my Model X. It was packed to the gills. Got to the airport, baggage guys take everything, rush, rush, get on the plane. As we land, I realized I had not told them about the two bags in the frunk containing all our cold weather jackets, etc. I had to race around a small Canadian ski town in early April asking shopkeepers to show me their ski gear which they had stored away (bathing suits were on display!). I got it done and didn’t lose any ski time, but it was a hectic 3 hours.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

GOOGLE lays off 12k employees and stock does this:

Anybody remember what happened when Tesla announced layoffs and what happened to its stock? I'll wait.....

 

[JRP3]

I forget I even have a frunk most of the time.

 

[Cosmacelf]

This video makes me ashamed to be American.

As Americans we should be proud we have an American company accomplishing so much yet "we" slander, attack, criticize, and lie. Whatever it takes to undermine and destroy. The only place we can get a test that isn't rigged against Tesla is in China. what does that say about our culture?

Partly culture (see social media) but the media itself is hugely influenced by advertising dollars. And then you have media barrons who own large media organizations (like Bezos) who have their own agenda. It is a mess.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Also kind of wish that Tesla would have used fleet sales a little more strategically in retrospect. It would be nice to have a way to shunt excess inventory to Hertz or whomever else when there are demand pockets. If it means a slight discount, would be worth it.

How do you know they haven’t done that?

 

[DarkandStormy]

Not great optics:

Elon Musk Sold Tesla Shares Before Company Acknowledged Weakness

The timing of the CEO’s sale of nearly $3.6 billion in stock last month raises a crucial question: Did he know that business had slowed when he sold his shares?

www.wsj.com

Is this what passes for journalism these days? This was known on January 2nd when they reported P&D numbers and known (publicly, I guess) when Tesla cut prices over a week ago. How did this even get approved to be published?

 

[UncaNed]

Considering Teslas are the only ones having "brake issues" in China and publishers got sued and told to publicly apologize and fined in China for making up BS, I wouldn't call China innocent.

Disagreed because China fixed the problem; it was the competitor or whoever made the FUD, not official Chinese State policy.

 

[bkp_duke]

Is this what passes for journalism these days? This was known on January 2nd when they reported P&D numbers and known (publicly, I guess) when Tesla cut prices over a week ago. How did this even get approved to be published?

Because the MSM is running out of ammo for the FUD machine. Time to recycle stories to make them appear new.

 

[Singuy]

Disagreed because China fixed the problem; it was the competitor or whoever made the FUD, not official Chinese State policy.

China didn't fix anything(nor it's their job to). Tesla lawyers fixed it. Just saying there are publications everywhere that attacks Tesla due to special interest to see them fail. Are you saying it's not our US competitors that caused MSM to spread so much FUD about Tesla while they get overwhelmingly positive reviews while recall news are suppressed? It's not the US competitor that bought our government to the point they can't even say Tesla?

 

[TSLA Siempre]

How do you know they haven’t done that?

It's possible that they did do that, but didn't tell us. However, when the news of the purchase broke, Elon threw a little cold water on the story. This is what he said:

"You’re welcome! If any of this is based on Hertz, I’d like to emphasize that no contract has been signed yet. Tesla has far more demand than production, therefore we will only sell cars to Hertz for the same margin as to consumers. Hertz deal has zero effect on our economics."

This leads me to believe they didn't do it. Also, if they did have some kind of agreement like that with Hertz, I would have assumed they would have diverted production to Hertz at the end of 2022 instead of cutting prices.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sandy Rant: Tesla Margins and Sandy was Right! | Munro Live on Youtube (30 min ago)

P.S. Our feisty friend turned 73 yesterday. Happy Birthday, Sandy! (and remember to take your b.p. pills)

 

[Cosmacelf]

Sandy Rant: Tesla Margins and Sandy was Right! | Munro Live on Youtube (30 min ago)

I like the video, but Sandy is being a bit disingenuous when he says FSD sales are pure profit. Yes, it has very little effect on gross margins the way that Munro calculates such. But it does affect net margins or company profits. All the Dojo engineering costs, GPU supercomputers, very expensive AI engineers cost money. To answer Sandy’s question, that’s where all Tesla cash from gross margins goes to. I’m just not sure Sandy has taken into account all the FSD development costs in his FSD margin estimation when he says it is pure profit.

BTW, another drag on net profit, or earnings, is now also TeslaBot development. And continual engineering improvement of all Tesla vehicles including several that are in deep development. All this investment is going to result in huge revenue and profit down the road, but it does tamp down Tesla’s earnings now.

Nice to see their gross margins after the price cut are similar to what they used to be three years ago!

 

[Singuy]

Sandy Rant: Tesla Margins and Sandy was Right! | Munro Live on Youtube (30 min ago)

TLDR

Their estimated cost for a MY LR AWD in 2022 is 39,393.13 cents. I am getting a gm of 26% for the base model. But most likely hit 30% for the mix since people want the 7 seaters now.