Credibility is high for historical/current statements when considering A) the actual words spoken / written and B) the given context / timeframe. The challenge is that most people hear something different than what was actually said, and then extend what they think they heard to other contexts / timeframes.
Example - Q4 2022 call r.e. orders (
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool)
Elon Musk --
Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
"<...>
Thus far -- so I want to put that concern to rest. Thus far in January, we've seen the strongest orders year-to-date than ever in our history. We currently are seeing orders at almost twice the rate of production. So I mean, that -- it's hard to say whether that will continue twice the rate of production, but the orders are high.
<...>"
It seems highly likely that the January 2023 price cuts greatly increased orders in the days / weeks immediately following them (larger short-term increase and smaller long-term increase, but both significant increases), and that as of January 26th Tesla was "currently...seeing orders at almost twice the rate of production." Especially given the disclaimer which immediately followed, the actual words used in the given context should have high credibility. Unfortunately, most heard what they wanted to hear, somehow seemed to go deaf before the immediately-following-and-very-reasonable disclaimer is said, and then become quite disappointed when production and delivery numbers in early April do not meet their own 'irrationally exuberant' expectations.
Credibility for forward-looking statements is more challenging to examine, as retroactively so many different lenses can be applied whether one wants to see the statement as credible vs non-credible (what a 'wide' release of FSD means, how to interpret 50% growth, etc). Very, very unlikely any of his forward-looking statements are made that he doesn't believe
could happen, but there is certainly room for one to consider the likelihood of whether it
will happen within any given timeframe / context, and most especially for credibility, "Is it reasonable to think that Mr. Musk, with the data he likely has available to him, rationally expects this aspirational thing to actually happen in a given context?"
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