Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

In order to get to 1,000 Critical DE,

I think the whole “critical DE”, “interventions” are really in a sense misnomers. Really there is no difference between pressing the accelerator when it’s slowly crossing the road when a car is approaching vs braking because it’s hurtling fast towards a stopped car.

We should just count any human interaction for any reason. If Tesla can classify as safety, comfort etc that’s better.

 

[replicant]

Model Y LR RWD (600 km / 373 mile WLTP range) now available to order in Europe. Not yet available in the UK, due to driving on the wrong side of the road.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778353650668105923

Not available in France either. Anyone knows why?

 

[larmor]

Why not?

Improvement is based on the whole AI concept, so 50x improvement would be equivalent to one teenager learning to drive with one parent, and then doing that process 50x in the same month. The analogy is similar to sam altman's ted talk on AI about a decade ago, the analogy was one medical researcher/team in a lab can take 2 years to find a drug/treatment/etc, but what if there were hundreds of teams doing this work simultaneously then drug discovery, design, development might take 2 weeks, with one AI representing one researcher/team.

 

[dhrivnak]

HOLD IT RIGHT THERE!!! Tesla does not seek, need or want an "image" - they just want to sell cars & replace all the gas-guzzlers. And that includes all the cheap cars that are all that poor i.e. normal people can afford

I am all for Tesla selling a cheaper car. But they have very few models so make an economy one. No need to cheapen the 3 or the Y. Or maybe offer a lower trim model 3 or Y, I am OK with that as well.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Add 8 months to get an electrician to install a charger at your house. Ridiculous. The price...crazy, it was going to be another 3k. I can fuel my little toyota scion 2 years driving a crap load of miles for 3k. the 8 month wait was a killer

...or charge at 120v for 95+% of the daily driving you need*, and go to a Supercharger whenever you need to drive hundreds of miles in less than 24 hours.

Seriously, I have a Tesla charger and it's convenient, but it's not necessary. My brother has as an IONIQ and no dedicated home charger, plus every weekend he drives 100 miles to and from our family cottage - where we both plug in at 120v to charge back up over the weekend. No problem.

* Unless you drive >50 miles a day and can't charge at work.

 

[EVMeister]

Not available in France either. Anyone knows why?

Not in NL either. I can only assume it is a phased introduction, maybe to gague demand or control for production constraint. With France and NL presumably "coming soon".

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Model Y LR RWD (600 km / 373 mile WLTP range) now available to order in Europe. Not yet available in the UK, due to driving on the wrong side of the road.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778353650668105923

What is it in EPA range? Seems to me WLTP is significantly bigger than WLTP

 

[insaneoctane]

Wow, that's pretty short-sighted for PG&E to charge so much. Solar is a fairly fixed cost, so they are just encouraging solar.

Yeah, well they just changed the net-metering policy to force power sent back to the grid to only receive wholesale compensation (~$0.02/kWh), daily connection fees($15/mo and rising) to pay even if you don't use grid power. There seems to be no end in sight for the slowing of these price hikes:

In a general rate case application with the CPUC in May, SCE asked for a $10.3 billion base revenue requirement for 2025 — a 23% increase over its 2024 requested revenue requirement — followed by increases of roughly $600 million, $700 million and $700 million, respectively, in 2026, 2027 and 2028.

Yet, somehow: Edison International reported $354 million in Q2 net income compared with about $241 million in the second quarter of 2022.

Source: Southern California Edison eyeing ‘substantial investments’ in grid resilience and reliability, CEO says

 

[GhostSkater]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778381990275760568

 

[GOVA]

Can somebody remind me of Karen Rei and Fact Checking X names?

 

[MartinAustin]

Yes - but currently the prices are such that an image is important. So, until they get the next “cheap” vehicle they need the image.

For years, Tesla has been getting deeper into people's wallets than legacy car companies can. When I bought my Model S in 2013, I had been driving a 2002 Civic for 11yrs and a Hyundai Elantra was one of my options for replacing it. Then my TSLA stock took off, and instead of leaving it in my wallet, I bought a Tesla instead of another gas-guzzler

 

[rallykeeper]

Friendly reminder to those who see charts on Twitter...

If the trailing period is non-standard (or not showing you any comparative lines), the chart-author might have an agenda. (In this case, the chart-author is really describing electricity prices increases that occurred at the end of 2022 into early 2023 -- electricity inflation is only moderately above overall inflation at this point.)

For example, here's trailing 1-year retail electricity costs compared to retail gasoline.

The case could be made that rising electricity costs relative to falling gasoline prices might have made an impact recently because the shock of higher gasoline prices was no longer compelling buyers into EVs.

But, now take a look at the monthly data and one might conclude that this may have been a very short-lived phenomena. Electricity price volatility is far lower and, as we know, cheaper overall.

p.s., if a U.S. economics chart isn't produced directly from FRED, you should also exercise a higher degree of scrutiny.

 

[winfield100]

Can somebody remind me of Karen Rei and Fact Checking X names?

OT
@GOVA

Nafnlaus 🇮🇸 🇺🇦 (@[email protected])

Attached: 4 images New scenes of #subsidence damage in #Grindavík as the dike continues to propagate. Video here: https://www.facebook.com/100064759868528/videos/pcb.747547004080622/874791410815985 #Iceland #Volcano #Eruption #Earthquakes

fosstodon.org

Karenrei (at least as of not that long ago

 

[Usain]

DC market, panel upgrade. pay for an electrician here, if good..250k a year. It's the datacenters. Signing bonuses are $100k.

Like I said, you are an outlier. Nationwide, the average electrician makes $61,391 per year. This site puts the high range at about $100k per year:

Electrician Salary: State-by-State Average Pay Rates in 2024

How much do electrical contractors make in your state? An electrician salary database has the answer.

www.servicetitan.com

Most people don't need a panel upgrade. Unfortunately, some do. But it's the exception and not the rule.

Anyway, my point was that for most homeowners, L2 installation cost is not a significant factor in EV adoption.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Maybe nobody sees it, but it's staring at me. So let's look a bit closer then. Might we be seeing the Disengagement effects of experienced vs newbies?

We did quite well on 12.3 in City, then DE's dropped back down on 12.3.3.

Was it that 12.3 was first given to us veteran Beta Testers and we have more experience with risk management? And then was 12.3.3 to the 2M? That would make some sense as it's measuring the fear-factor mostly. I can't recall the timing of versions and don't know exactly where they cutoff the data between points, especially since 12.3.3 data hasn't changed in a week. Shouldn't we see this rise naturally without new code as people learn it?

FYI, this is FSD crowd-sourced data as I understand it, not Tesla directly.

 

[Unpilot]

Small data point.

Drove from S Florida to SC. Saw two Cybertrucks on car carrier's on I95 heading S.

Then got new software for my 2017 Model S (FSD 12.3.4) It is awesome.

HODL!

 

[unk45]

Friendly reminder to those who see charts on Twitter...

If the trailing period is non-standard (or not showing you any comparative lines), the chart-author might have an agenda. (In this case, the chart-author is really describing electricity prices increases that occurred at the end of 2022 into early 2023 -- electricity inflation is only moderately above overall inflation at this point.)

For example, here's trailing 1-year retail electricity costs compared to retail gasoline.

View attachment 1037713

The case could be made that rising electricity costs relative to falling gasoline prices might have made an impact recently because the shock of higher gasoline prices was no longer compelling buyers into EVs.

But, now take a look at the monthly data and one might conclude that this may have been a very short-lived phenomena. Electricity price volatility is far lower and, as we know, cheaper overall.

View attachment 1037718

p.s., if a U.S. economics chart isn't produced directly from FRED, you should also exercise a higher degree of scrutiny.

This is one of the more valuable posts to dispel FUD about relative EV operating economics in the US. I do disagree with the PS: It is also relevant to consider the FRED sources, many of which have more detail on some very relevant contributing factors with more details on regional impacts. For those who do not want the details FRED has been for decades a valuable consolidator of the various Federal Reserve Banks (all listed as FRED sources) data for their regions. going to your own region, if you're in the US, will give more of that insight.:

Sources of Economic Data | FRED | St. Louis Fed

114 sources of economic data. FRED: Download, graph, and track economic data.

fred.stlouisfed.org

For those not in the US, nearly all Central Banks have similar data and most fo them give a choice between local language(s) and English. There are many other authoritative sources in most countries that do not have precise FRS analogies.

Long ago I did a consulting project for a multinational which wanted to know their relevant dat in 78 countries. We started with IMF dat and ended out with local sources that allowed very similar authoritative and relevant data in all those countries. It is entirely feasible to make the same evaluations and more in all those countries.

As @rallykeeper shows the bland assertions can be easily fact-checked with a little bit of effort.

 

[EQC_]

...

Here's a question: Does the ave person even have a sense for their own electricity costs, and further compare this to gas? (Not the whole bill, but where/how the power was used). Based on my conversations with folks, there is little awareness. kWh? Blank face. Leave lights on - don't know the cost. How much to run the Hot-tub... no clue. A common question (after the where is answered) is how much to charge an EV. It's evidence that some are looking at their cash weekly outflows. It's all short-term thinking really as folks have not caught on to total cost of ownership just yet. That's where they could get burned (post-warranty) in either crazy depreciation and/or repairs.

I would expect very few consumers saying, "I always wanted an EV but now it will cost too much to charge, so never mind." This might be the case where education is low. It requires math (or fear spreading). Some here might think you're trying to propagate this point to slow the transition, just a hunch based on feedback.
...

It is perhaps cruel of me to say...but I believe it's a cruel reality: MANY people, across many income levels (a) have no true idea where their money goes, and (b) are stuck living paycheck-to-pacheck, in part, because they spend what's in their pocket on non-necessities without thinking it matters, and then struggle with the bills at the end of the month that should be easily predictable. Paycheck-to-paycheck, for many, is also due to a signing up for enough monthly payments (mortgage, car, subscriptoins, etc.) to consume every month's income without adequately valueing a need for savings, etc.

I have no idea about the validity of the data, but at least one google-able study suggests that in the US "63% of employees can't cover an unexpected $500 expense." Nearly 2/3's of people just not having an extra $500 for an emergency is mentally shocking. At such a high percentage, we know this isn't just people with poverty or lower-middle-class incomes. There are people with pretty sizeable incomes in this category too.

With that in mind:
There are a lot of people who hear EV and just think "my electic bill will go up and it's already too high!". I believe that many people top up their gas tank with the cash in their pocket, and for them throwing a couple twenties over the counter every few days doesn't seem like it really adds up to much. There are also people who pay on credit card, so the many gas transactions are just part of the credit card bill at the end of the month. Either way, gasoline is a bunch of small/separate transactions so people don't see what it adds up to...and they can't really imagine that those "mandatory" expenses will go away and be replaced by a smaller addition to their electric bill.

For many people, there is also the problem that they seem to be itching to spend what's in their pocket without thinking. Stop at the ATM when their pocket is empty, spend the cash until its gone, then hit the ATM again. For people who are used to carrying around cash to pay for topping up their gas tank, they probably pay cash for many "impulse" type purchases as well. If the cash purchases of gas go away, for many people, that money will still get spent on something else. At the end of the month, the "gas money" will still have been spent, AND their electric bill will be higher than before. Until they can resolve that pattern, such people could end up feeling even more pinched at the end of the month if they own an EV.

 

[Usain]

Maybe nobody sees it, but it's staring at me. So let's look a bit closer then. Might we be seeing the Disengagement effects of experienced vs newbies?

We did quite well on 12.3 in City, then DE's dropped back down on 12.3.3.

Was it that 12.3 was first given to us veteran Beta Testers and we have more experience with risk management? And then was 12.3.3 to the 2M? That would make some sense as it's measuring the fear-factor mostly. I can't recall the timing of versions and don't know exactly where they cutoff the data between points, especially since 12.3.3 data hasn't changed in a week. Shouldn't we see this rise naturally without new code as people learn it?

View attachment 1037731

FYI, this is FSD crowd-sourced data as I understand it, not Tesla directly.

You may have a point, but I wonder if many newbies would find this site and report their data.

I honestly can't think of a good way to measure the rate of improvement without the level of data that Tesla has access to. And at this point, Tesla ain't talkin'.

I think number of critical disengagements is a poor metric if you are trying to discern how fast FSD is improving. By this metric, improvement will come in fits and starts. Suppose that for the next five releases, Tesla doesn't solve any of the major problems that cause CE's. Then, in the sixth release, several are finally solved and the miles to CE shoots way up. Does that mean no progress was made for the five previous releases?

It's obvious that V12 is a huge leap forward. Elon and Ashok sure are excited. It looks like Elon is convinced enough to go all in on robotaxi. Right now, those are the best metrics we've got.

 

[GOVA]

It is perhaps cruel of me to say...but I believe it's a cruel reality: MANY people, across many income levels (a) have no true idea where their money goes, and (b) are stuck living paycheck-to-pacheck, in part, because they spend what's in their pocket on non-necessities without thinking it matters, and then struggle with the bills at the end of the month that should be easily predictable. Paycheck-to-paycheck, for many, is also due to a signing up for enough monthly payments (mortgage, car, subscriptoins, etc.) to consume every month's income without adequately valueing a need for savings, etc.

I have no idea about the validity of the data, but at least one google-able study suggests that in the US "63% of employees can't cover an unexpected $500 expense." Nearly 2/3's of people just not having an extra $500 for an emergency is mentally shocking. At such a high percentage, we know this isn't just people with poverty or lower-middle-class incomes. There are people with pretty sizeable incomes in this category too.

With that in mind:
There are a lot of people who hear EV and just think "my electic bill will go up and it's already too high!". I believe that many people top up their gas tank with the cash in their pocket, and for them throwing a couple twenties over the counter every few days doesn't seem like it really adds up to much. There are also people who pay on credit card, so the many gas transactions are just part of the credit card bill at the end of the month. Either way, gasoline is a bunch of small/separate transactions so people don't see what it adds up to...and they can't really imagine that those "mandatory" expenses will go away and be replaced by a smaller addition to their electric bill.

For many people, there is also the problem that they seem to be itching to spend what's in their pocket without thinking. Stop at the ATM when their pocket is empty, spend the cash until its gone, then hit the ATM again. For people who are used to carrying around cash to pay for topping up their gas tank, they probably pay cash for many "impulse" type purchases as well. If the cash purchases of gas go away, for many people, that money will still get spent on something else. At the end of the month, the "gas money" will still have been spent, AND their electric bill will be higher than before. Until they can resolve that pattern, such people could end up feeling even more pinched at the end of the month if they own an EV.

While I agree with your points, the very same people have less problems buying other (expensive) cars. This is not only the affordability vs EV issue but also awareness issue.

If some of those folks knew what we know, they'd buy more Tesla cars. 9/10 still have no clue, IMO.