Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778746933135257897

 

[jerry33]

Why don’t you just start dialing down your speed sooner so the car arrives at the school zone at the appropriate speed!? That’s all I do now. It’s easy to just give the car more runway so you arrive at the sign at the correct speed. The car slows down so gently that anyone behind you isn’t going to notice.

The issue is that the car doesn’t yet recognize the warning speed change signs.

There’s zero reason you can’t use FSD. You simply need to alter the timing of your actions at this point. One day you won’t.

Haven't tried this with V12, but in the last two V11 releases, it goes back up almost immediately, so that method, which I used to use, is a non-starter for V11. Dialing down used to work (and maybe it does in V12, will try next time).

 

[EVNow]

To measure human interaction is measuring whether the car drives like a human, unsafely. Why would you want to measure that? If anything too many disengagement are being measured because humans are disengaging when they don't like what the car is doing, regardless of safety.

You are just speculating with no first hand experience.

Hardly anyone disengages because they don’t like the way FSD drives. Usually those people don’t use FSD after a while since constant disengagements are no fun. Check the FSD/AP sub forum. I wish people who post here checked that sub forum often if they don’t have personal experience.

Infact a lot of times we are not disengaging when we should. The other day FSD took a right turn using bus only lane in a bizarre lane picking exercise. I didn’t disengage even though it is illegal because it wasn’t unsafe. It had to move over 3 lanes quickly to take the next turn !

 

[Krugerrand]

For sure -- that's what I mostly do... though right now it takes a couple of blocks to slow down from the normal speed limit to the school zone speed limit. It'd be nice if there were a happy medium.

I’m confused because you said you disengage now as FSD isn’t useful. Where upon I said just give the car more runway. Then you posted the above.

 

[mrmage]

Headroom is assuming Tesla will only add more and more complex algorithmis which chews up the limited memory avaliable. However we have seen the opposite is happening as Tesla is reducing complexity by taking away all the safety clutches in place because NN wasn't well trained enough years ago. This is just the beginning, lots of software optimization will be happening to improve performance. All the analysts 5 years ago believe the fsd computer will no way be enough to complete intervention free drives in major cities, and yet here we are.

Although fast compared to training, inference is still compute and memory intensive compared to algorithms (ie hand coding). The code saved is small compared to model computing and size.

Tesla's first priority and top challenge will be to get FSD to work, which includes reducing interventions by orders of magnitude. This will require more training data, which is usually accompanied by increased complexity, resulting in more parameters and layers, and higher memory requirements.

Based on the history of most AI models, improving the predictions increases model size, and rarely decreases. Tesla won't be able to optimize level 4/5 FSD, beyond trying to make each version fit into its hardware, until it's able to meet safety specs. Dealing with limited hw while improving model performance makes this a very tough problem.

As you noted... it's 5 years later to get to this point, which is only .001% of the way there.

 

[Andy O]

In other words, someone spends billions of dollars developing a system and now is forced to give it away. That's a real incentive to develop new products.

There was nothing in the original post that suggested that Tesla should *give* away their system. In the interest of public safety and economic value, governments could pay Tesla for the FSD safety features for everyone.

How much should a state or national government pay Tesla for this?

 

[Discoducky]

@Discoduck Can you explain why India giga announcement signals a massive shift to autonomy?

Sure, a bit of context as I worked on the rollout of traffic/routing/voice guidance/turn-by-turn nav for Google Maps so I'm very aware of the urban/rural challenges of car navigation/transport. And as roads are mainly traversed in 'interesting ways' there is a huge need to bring more order, safety and efficiency.

I'd assume Elon will give officials 12.x rides to demonstrate they have 'cracked' autonomy which leads to low cost transportation on the robotaxi platform. The assumption is that the only vehicle produced in India would be a low cost vehicle which is also assumed to be the robotaxi which is also assumed to be an extremely high run-rate vehicle (2M+/year) which would also need localized parts supply chain including the entire drivetrain. This will be a massive investment and I'm assuming 10B+ including charging/grid storage infrastructure. Getting all these details sorted out **WHILE** the political process has been in flux has most likely been a huge ordeal.

IMO, the above are safe/conservative assumptions.

What are not as conservative assumptions is that the Indian elections start soon and go for weeks (6'ish weeks all over the country at many levels) so agreements with current officials may not extend to incoming officials possibly.

And even less conservative assumption would be agreements to purchase robotaxi's to exclusively populate Indian dense urban centers which would eliminate safety issues, greatly decrease Time/mile and drastically lower $/mile.

 

[Krugerrand]

Haven't tried this with V12, but in the last two V11 releases, it goes back up almost immediately, so that method, which I used to use, is a non-starter for V11. Dialing down used to work (and maybe it does in V12, will try next time).

Dialing down below your current max (posted) speed in anticipation of a lower speed change (new posted) had the car returning to the max (posted) speed? I’ve never had that happen. Or am I misunderstanding your situation?

Anyway, if the posted speed is 50 and you know it’s going to change to 35, V12 doesn’t slow quickly enough to the new speed to escape a speed trap so now you have to start dialing down at least at the warning speed sign so that when you reach the 35 zone the car is already close to that speed. You know, like how people are supposed to drive but typically keep going 50 and then hit the brakes hard to get down to the new speed. Anyway, I’ve never had any version of FSD go above my manually toggled and set speed setting UNLESS I pass a new speed sign of a greater speed. Then it resets.

 

[insaneoctane]

My number two recommendation would be for Tesla to raise its battery warranty to at least 200,000 miles. I think Tesla could easily afford to replace the few battery packs that fail before 200,000 miles. Then the other automakers would have to raise their warranties as well.

Maybe. I'd certainly like this as an owner, but not so sure as an investor. I'd need to see the data Tesla has. I suspect we'll get there as the chemistries evolve towards the "million mile" pack life. On the current and past packs, I'm not sure what liability would come with that extension. But, if you believe that Tesla is truly working on million mile worthy batteries and motors, you would agree that Tesla will be able to safely extend battery warranties in the future.

 

[scaesare]

But how will the batteries "vent"? /s

Been thinking... pressurizing a battery chamber is a nice idea, but why do it on CT and not on other models? Designed-to-float is one theory, here's another. It is based on several unsuccessful oil pan gasket changing days to fix a drip (without mass quantities of RTV).

My hunch says CT battery will be pressurized (also) because they come apart to reconfigure. Fact is, nothing is ever as good as a factory seal... so why not cover it with air pressure?

Just a theory folks, don't freak out on me, it's that Up-pack theory I have. Might even be the eventual extender pack, as that bed mount version was one key reason I didn't pull the trigger on CT.

I have not seen Monroe's tear down... does CT pack look any more serviceable than other packs?

Quick data point: The original S packs had 6-7mm of "deadspace" in the packs... at the time it was surmised to allow for the slight pack dents, etc.... but may have also served as "vent space"...

 

[scaesare]

Things that significantly improve public safety really shouldn’t be locked behind a subscription pay gate especially when all cars have the hardware and it’s merely a software toggle.

If FSD prevents accidents at high speed, can detect pedestrians and avoid hitting them, etc then doesn’t it seem a bit immoral to not make those features standard across the fleet? Not even for the driver’s sake, for the sake of other users on public roads.

Elon said some time ago, that safety critical features such as AEB, would always be enabled. I'm not sure if this extended to steering or throttle control in emergency situations, but if not, I can imagine it might be at some point...

 

[scaesare]

“Lowest cost per kilometer in the electric SUV market (14.9 kWh/100 km)”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778353650668105923

With only 2 passenger spots, how much will this be for the Robotaxi? It may become the most economic transport device wrt to energy per passengerkilometer.

Wow.

Less than 200Wh/mi for a mid size crossover SUV. Impressive.

 

[Mengy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778746933135257897

Time to ramp Megapack production then!

 

[replicant]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778746933135257897

Are these cells not good enough for Tesla stationary storage?

It makes zero sense to end up in a battery glut when climate change speeds up, Tesla vehicles sales drop YoY and energy storage deployment grows only by 30% QoQ.

I though it would be10x easier to assemble, manufacture and ship Megapacks than cars. And also compatible with more cells providers than for auto. What are the bottlenecks?

 

[scaesare]

It is perhaps cruel of me to say...but I believe it's a cruel reality: MANY people, across many income levels (a) have no true idea where their money goes, and (b) are stuck living paycheck-to-pacheck, in part, because they spend what's in their pocket on non-necessities without thinking it matters, and then struggle with the bills at the end of the month that should be easily predictable. Paycheck-to-paycheck, for many, is also due to a signing up for enough monthly payments (mortgage, car, subscriptoins, etc.) to consume every month's income without adequately valueing a need for savings, etc.

I have no idea about the validity of the data, but at least one google-able study suggests that in the US "63% of employees can't cover an unexpected $500 expense." Nearly 2/3's of people just not having an extra $500 for an emergency is mentally shocking. At such a high percentage, we know this isn't just people with poverty or lower-middle-class incomes. There are people with pretty sizeable incomes in this category too.

With that in mind:
There are a lot of people who hear EV and just think "my electic bill will go up and it's already too high!". I believe that many people top up their gas tank with the cash in their pocket, and for them throwing a couple twenties over the counter every few days doesn't seem like it really adds up to much. There are also people who pay on credit card, so the many gas transactions are just part of the credit card bill at the end of the month. Either way, gasoline is a bunch of small/separate transactions so people don't see what it adds up to...and they can't really imagine that those "mandatory" expenses will go away and be replaced by a smaller addition to their electric bill.

For many people, there is also the problem that they seem to be itching to spend what's in their pocket without thinking. Stop at the ATM when their pocket is empty, spend the cash until its gone, then hit the ATM again. For people who are used to carrying around cash to pay for topping up their gas tank, they probably pay cash for many "impulse" type purchases as well. If the cash purchases of gas go away, for many people, that money will still get spent on something else. At the end of the month, the "gas money" will still have been spent, AND their electric bill will be higher than before. Until they can resolve that pattern, such people could end up feeling even more pinched at the end of the month if they own an EV.

This is indeed true. And for the "base essentials" many seem to be unable (or simply won't) to do a TOC excercise. On a forum I'm on, a woman said there's no way she'd own an EV, as she's already paying way too much for electricity. When a couple of us Tesla owners walked her through the miles driven, cost of gas, etc... and showed her significant savings... she just seemed to not want to accept that and largely went silent.

For many I think it's a convenient crutch to confirm their inherent bias.

 

[JimS]

Why don’t you just start dialing down your speed sooner so the car arrives at the school zone at the appropriate speed!? That’s all I do now. It’s easy to just give the car more runway so you arrive at the sign at the correct speed. The car slows down so gently that anyone behind you isn’t going to notice.

The issue is that the car doesn’t yet recognize the warning speed change signs.

There’s zero reason you can’t use FSD. You simply need to alter the timing of your actions at this point. One day you won’t.

We’ve discovered that using the right scroll wheel to dial the speed up or down while in Supervised FSD no longer works if you have set it to “Automatic Set Speed Offset” in the Autopilot menu. (FSD Supervised v12.3.3.) For now we have decided to leave that setting off. (I meant to turn it off this morning but forgot. It did a 29 mile trip from my house in Savannah to a business in Rincon with no disengagements. No school zones, but it did go about 13mph over the limit a couple times, I guess to keep up with the flow of traffic.). With the setting off I can set it at +10%, then use the scroll wheel to increase it to +9 or 10 mph or slow it down if needed.

 

[scaesare]

How is it they have brutal valuations given their business finances? They’ve both been headed to bankruptcy for a long time and are picking up speed.

While Tesla prepared themselves for tough times, these two went and spent money on new designer wardrobes.

I kinda feel like at least Rivian was trying to build a practical vehicle, whereas Lucid always seemed like a venture trying to one-up Tesla.

But alas Rivian may have focused too much on the cool design as opposed to volume manufacturing... I hope they can turn it around....

 

[Krugerrand]

There was nothing in the original post that suggested that Tesla should *give* away their system. In the interest of public safety and economic value, governments could pay Tesla for the FSD safety features for everyone.

How much should a state or national government pay Tesla for this?

Um - where do you think governments get their money?

Answer: The taxpayers

So, instead of all tax payers being mad at Tesla owners, why not just let Tesla owners pay for the FSD and they’ve made the roads safer for themselves and everyone else anyway.

I know where you’re going next - and so I say to you, Tesla has already said they were willing to license their tech to other OEMs.

With this whole line of thought, it’s people with a solution looking for a problem. Not to mention, literally overnight the narrative went from ‘FSD won’t happen/won’t happen for years’ to ‘everyone should get FSD for free’.

 

[hitchhiker]

We’ve discovered that using the right scroll wheel to dial the speed up or down while in Supervised FSD no longer works if you have set it to “Automatic Set Speed Offset” in the Autopilot menu. (FSD Supervised v12.3.3.) For now we have decided to leave that setting off. (I meant to turn it off this morning but forgot. It did a 29 mile trip from my house in Savannah to a business in Rincon with no disengagements. No school zones, but it did go about 13mph over the limit a couple times, I guess to keep up with the flow of traffic.). With the setting off I can set it at +10%, then use the scroll wheel to increase it to +9 or 10 mph or slow it down if needed.

Ah! So that's the secret!
I do like the more natural "speed of traffic" with the automatic, but if that's the secret to handling adjustments better I'll turn it off in town for now.

@Krugerrand - to be clear, I'm experimenting with things that may work. But right now the rate of slow-down when I dial down is so slow, that I often have to interfere by the time I get to the school zone.

With v11, I did experience the thing where it re-sets itself back up from what I set to the posted speed limit at random (not consistently). I've not experienced that with v12 -- it seems to do much better about staying with my settings.

 

[Krugerrand]

We’ve discovered that using the right scroll wheel to dial the speed up or down while in Supervised FSD no longer works if you have set it to “Automatic Set Speed Offset” in the Autopilot menu. (FSD Supervised v12.3.3.) For now we have decided to leave that setting off. (I meant to turn it off this morning but forgot. It did a 29 mile trip from my house in Savannah to a business in Rincon with no disengagements. No school zones, but it did go about 13mph over the limit a couple times, I guess to keep up with the flow of traffic.). With the setting off I can set it at +10%, then use the scroll wheel to increase it to +9 or 10 mph or slow it down if needed.

Ah, ok. I don’t use that setting. Good to know.