Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wtlloyd]

1000 miles per disengagement will be great. That would be like once a month for most people. The current rate is something like 1 in 20 miles in the city. It’s not going to improve 50x in 4 months, though.

Let's stop presuming that improvement will be linear. A single change may result in multiple reflections of behavior.
Think not 1+1+1+1+1=5, but rather 1+4+2+3+2=12

 

[RCFLMA]

Yes, you do:


That MCU upgrade include HW3...

Thanks for the clarification - the upgrade was in June 2020

 

[insaneoctane]

I honestly can't think of a good way to measure the rate of improvement without the level of data that Tesla has access to. And at this point, Tesla ain't talkin'.

Tesla (TSLA) to Unveil Its Much-Awaited Robotaxi on Aug 8

Tesla (TSLA) is set to reveal its much-awaited robotaxi on Aug 8, 2024, which utilizes the company's latest vehicle platform.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[jschwefel]

That's like practically free! I have driven over 200k miles on Teslas since 2015. I have easily paid for one of them (or more) is gas and maintenance savings, not to mention all the tax credits. Anyone who chooses not to buy a Tesla M3 or MY at this point is just being financially irresponsible.

Agreed! But why are so many people buying ICE vehicles that are comparable to the Model 3 and Y in size and price?

 

[jschwefel]

Let's limit this to the US market. There are probably several reasons for softening of EV demand. Here are three possibilities I can think of:

1. Legacy auto can't make money on EVs. Legacy has been squeezed of late and they lose money on every EV they sell. So they have decided to stop selling so many.
2. Channel stuffing. I think we will soon find out that ICE demand is also very soft. But it doesn't yet look that way because legacy OEMs are still selling lots of cars to dealers. But that will soon end because dealers can't sell them and their lots are too full to take more inventory. So while it looks like EV demand is soft because Tesla sales are soft, it's really the case that all auto sales are soft.
3. Early adopters already have an EV or two. It is harder to sell an EV to those who are afraid of trying something new. So the "easy to reach" customer market is saturated and we need to "cross the chasm" to the next phase of adoption.

These are very reasonable points. What do you recommend we do to “cross the chasm” and reach the next phase of EV adoption?

 

[geometro]

It’s all in the book, Innovators Dilemma. Clayton Christiansen.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Maybe nobody sees it, but it's staring at me. So let's look a bit closer then. Might we be seeing the Disengagement effects of experienced vs newbies?

We did quite well on 12.3 in City, then DE's dropped back down on 12.3.3.

Was it that 12.3 was first given to us veteran Beta Testers and we have more experience with risk management? And then was 12.3.3 to the 2M? That would make some sense as it's measuring the fear-factor mostly. I can't recall the timing of versions and don't know exactly where they cutoff the data between points, especially since 12.3.3 data hasn't changed in a week. Shouldn't we see this rise naturally without new code as people learn it?

View attachment 1037731

FYI, this is FSD crowd-sourced data as I understand it, not Tesla directly.

The community based tracker are all experienced testers. People submit their data to them. It's been the same group for a while.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Let's stop presuming that improvement will be linear. A single change may result in multiple reflections of behavior.
Think not 1+1+1+1+1=5, but rather 1+4+2+3+2=12

80:20 rule will deliver faster improvement than most people intuitively expect. At any one time, 80% of problems arise from 20% of situation types. Tesla are getting perfect feedback, via interventions. For each new release (the last two just 10 days apart), they’ll be attacking the specific problems causing the most interventions and the most serious interventions (accelerometer reading at time of intervention reveals this).

The miles between interventions will progress geometrically.

Robotaxi level by year end, imo.

 

[MC3OZ]

These are very reasonable points. What do you recommend we do to “cross the chasm” and reach the next phase of EV adoption?

Natural trends from here:-
1. More affordable second hand EVs are becoming available, the EV experience will trickle down to lower budget buyers.
2. Batteries are becoming cheaper, higher energy density and longer lasting. This will result in, cheaper EVs with more range and faster charging.
3. After a brief foray into hybrids, legacy auto will probably return with improved EV offerings in around 2 years. (More choice.)
4. The Chinese EV offerings will keep improving in terms of quality and value for money.
5. The fast charging build out, and discussions with EV owners, will ease some "range anxiety" concerns.
6. In future, interest rates will drop, unlocking some pent up demand, and making buyers less risk adverse.

What Tesla is doing to drive further acceleration:-
1. 4680 cell production.
2. Cybertruck
3. Robotaxi
4. Lower priced Gen3 models
5. FSD.
6. Advertising
7. Improving existing models to entice existing owners to upgrade. Adding to Robotaxi or second hand pool.

I can't think of any obvious Tesla can do to speed things up further. Top of my list would be start on new factories and factory expansions at the right time.

 

[FreqFlyer]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/11/robotaxi-regulators-say-tesla-hasnt-contacted-them-about-plans-teased-by-musk.html

 

[geometro]

Nice…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778585051476775216

 

[Unpilot]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/11/robotaxi-regulators-say-tesla-hasnt-contacted-them-about-plans-teased-by-musk.html

Anyone have email for the "Robotaxi-regulators"?

 

[Musskiah]

Nice…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778585051476775216

Amen Franz. You done it again!

 

[Musskiah]

Agreed! But why are so many people buying ICE vehicles that are comparable to the Model 3 and Y in size and price?

Late Adopters. Hesitant. Feelings of unfamiliarity. Don't understand the advantages.

 

[Hock1]

Agreed! But why are so many people buying ICE vehicles that are comparable to the Model 3 and Y in size and price?

1.Fear of change.
2.Brand loyalty.
3.Ignorance of Tesla technological superiority
4.Hate for Elon based on MSM false narrative.
5.Lack of interest in learning the unknown.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

interesting. Elon liked a post about $99/mo FSD...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778608461908938992

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I took a look at Chile on the tesla map. Looks like they have a service and delivery centre in Santiago and not a single supercharger. It will be interesting to see the tesla supercharger buildout.

 

[Musskiah]

This is a nice analysis oof the value of compute according to Altman, Musk, and Johnathan Ross grok Founder and CEO.

This isn't an original thought, as most of my thouughts are not: Tesla likely has the second Dojo built and is likely working on a third, they are likely to specialize in one of the most important aspects of AI: Video

 

[Musskiah]

@enn_nafnlaus
@truth_tesla

It seems Karen Rei is not posting on TSLA much.

 

[Singuy]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/11/robotaxi-regulators-say-tesla-hasnt-contacted-them-about-plans-teased-by-musk.html

Breaking news. Tesla have not informed or started any permitting process for robotaxies in California or Nevada after what he tweeted about 8/8.

There I saved you 10 mins

In other news, product reveals doesn't require any permits from California.