Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

There goes the golden goose…

We all saw it coming. It’s one bird in the hand that counts.

Subscription FSD is not the long term revenue source. And since it has zero cost and promotes awareness and safety, they priced it just right IMO.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Do you understand the concept of Supply and Demand economics? If not you might want to read up on it. Lower prices greatly expands market adoption, and usually enables making even more total income than could previously be possible at the higher pricing. This is particularly powerful for software with high margins, which FSD is. Plus the larger FSD customer base brings in a LOT more driving data, and now that Tesla is no longer compute constrained this will accelerate FSD training.

Lowering the price of FSD is a very good thing for Tesla.

Do you understand what the CEO has said time and time again about what would happen with the price of FSD as it got closer?

Do you also understand to bring in the same subscription revenue per month they have to add as many new subscribers as they had existing ones just to be revenue neutral?

 

[skybluecgreen]

So odd… neither my 2018 M3 or wife’s 22 MX have gotten the FSD trial.

Exact same here.

 

[AudubonB]

Seriously. Every Tesla ad campaign should say "Free oil changes for life". It would cause a stir in the public consciousness.

I just looked into my cruet, and yep: my olive oil needs topping up.

Might be a leaky seal?

 

[replicant]

CATL unveils Tesla Megapack competitor, claims zero degradation and more capacity

CATL has unveiled Tener, a new large scale energy storage system to compete with Tesla Megapack. The system has almost...

electrek.co

 

[Krugerrand]

Wow, that's quite the tweet, I suspect a $99 FSD subscription will get a lot more folks and families on the bandwagon. $199 a month I could feel queasy...... $99 that's like a bag of groceries in these times..

On the P&D side where do we think we're heading into Q2? Has Berlin recovered entirely? Those pesky huthis still flubbing up the Red Sea? If anyone wants to lay it down with some nastrodamus style predictions im all ears.

Closed on my home 2 days ago!! What a sigh of relief. I was chatting with my mother about how when I sold the bundle of stock and got all my cash in line for this, a LOT of my stress has faded away. Prior to doing that, for the last 8 years I have opened my accounts every morning, first thing upon waking up. Looking back makes me feel borderline disgusting but on a personal note it's VERY strange I don't even consider reaching for the phone at this point.... Im up and looking for the coffee and perhaps animal/bird watching or just busy being alive I suppose.

On the other side of the coin I feel for all the people who are looking at the phone. More power to them, but I know the struggle! I think of posters here on the board who have always advised a smell the roses approach to investing. Both are probably fine and healthy ways to live, both with positives and negatives =). To each their own!

Great news with the FSD!

Sincerely
-Biff

I predict at least breakeven on CT already, but hoping for profitability.

 

[Xd85]

Regarding Sawstop: the tech to detect the current change when skin makes contact with the blade and immediately trigger a hard stop before the injury is more than superficial costs a few hundred dollars. Some other manufacturers have value offerings that are less than $500 in total. If they implement the safety tech, their value line will cease to be offered for under $500. If they choose to implement the safety tech in their higher end models but leave the low end model without it, then they will seen as not caring about poor people.

So the other manufacturers decided to forego the tech altogether and compete against SawStop by offering lower prices. However, some people do comparison shop, value safety, and have the funds available to spend more, so SawStop has done well.

How this applies to FSD, Tesla, and competitors, I'm not certain, but I am curious to read other's thoughts regarding that scenario as applied to Tesla and FSD.

I found it a pretty good analogy for FSD and the argument that safer technologies be mandated “for free”

There is a pending mandate to include saw stop like technology in all consumer saws. Not sure what outcome is but certainly it could be similar to FSD in the distant future.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Actually it was the truth at the time and for quite some time. FSD rose all the way to $15,000. But hey, let’s play the troll’s game and pretend that never happened. Let’s pretend that circumstances never change, therefore outcomes can change. Let’s pretend that everything in life is static.

And adoption rate fell through the floor. It was/will never be 100k. In fact, it's been reduced multiple times and the FSD transfer that would never happen is a normal thing now.

Tesla wants to make money on FSD, they are reducing the price. Elon saying, after it increased to 15k, that it will only get more expensive was false and a justification for the price increase.

I'm sure you believed Elon that "no one used the mobile charger or passenger lumbar". Those were cost saving/supply chain resolutions that Elon publicly provided a less than truthful reason.

The mobile charger was the most used way to charge Teslas on Tessie, Teslafi, and Teslascope when they stopped providing it eith the car.

 

[aronth5]

It doesn’t matter what the drama white noise queens say. Literally people have been complaining monthly subscription too high, make it lower = more subscribers = WS loves it = higher SP. So now it’s lower and you immediately have to go looking for a reason for someone, anyone, to be upset about it.

I know exactly how people are. Don’t feed them.

Actually reducing the monthly costs now sets Tesla up to charge $199/month for a legitimate L3. (not the crap Mercedes is offering).
People will absolutely pay another $100/month if they can text, read and watch videos. Just no naps. Robotaxi while potentially great won't be ready for prime time for awhile and isn't what many owners want anyway.

Just think major headache for legacy manufacturers, who wouldn't have a competitive L3 offering for a long time. Likely years for many. Once the word got out I suspect you'd see a lot of potential legacy car buyers switch to Tesla.

 

[Zero CO2]

So odd… neither my 2018 M3 or wife’s 22 MX have gotten the FSD trial.

finally got update on my MS today ... did a quick drive it is a big improvement over V11

 

[Krugerrand]

And adoption rate fell through the floor.

Not relevant to the context of the conversation and post/s I was responding to.

But additionally, you have no idea if that happened or not because Tesla has never provided take rate based on cost.

It was/will never be 100k.

Again, you have no idea if it ever will or not.

In fact, it's been reduced multiple times and the FSD transfer that would never happen is a normal thing now.

In fact it has NOT been reduced multiple times. Years ago a small group of people, myself among them, were given a two week window to get a $2k discount during the time period when AP, EAP & FSD were being shuffled. The only other time there’s been a reduction was from 15k to the current 12k.

Tesla wants to make money on FSD, they are reducing the price. Elon saying, after it increased to 15k, that it will only get more expensive was false and a justification for the price increase.

Stop trying to blow smoke up people’s skirts.

I'm sure you believed Elon that "no one used the mobile charger or passenger lumbar". Those were cost saving/supply chain resolutions that Elon publicly provided a less than truthful reason.

Don’t even try that approach with me, buddy. You have no idea, clearly, what I’ve said on that topic.

 

[Musskiah]

Okay, but your first post stated "on my next approach into the circle" implying you were already under control of FSD and moving. Perhaps I read it wrong...

It's not clear to me that this is a valid use case for FSD, initiating routing to a location that is what, 100 feet away? Perhaps a valid test would be routing to the BP from further back, say from the Pancake House or Davis Bakery? You know, give it a chance to make a left turn into the first entrance to the BP?

Not sure why you would label this as "bad, really bad."

Junk yard dog here, btw, but my last post on this issue.

You bring up valid points.

 

[Krugerrand]

TSLA jumped ~1% AH

And then promptly fizzled to 1/3rd of a percentage. So nothing burger.

 

[insaneoctane]

It seems obvious to me that the recent price reduction could easily be unique to "supervised" FSD, leaving the door open for a future price increase or additional tier for nag-free unsupervised. Possibly Tesla feels increasing the take rate by reducing the price will get them data faster and help converge to unsupervised...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778881361249800203

 

[Artful Dodger]

Years ago a small group of people, myself among them, were given a two week window to get a $2k discount during the time period when AP, EAP & FSD were being shuffled.

In fact, this was at the end of q1 2019. This was the time when Tesla was experiencing "logistics hell" with the introduction of the model 3 in europe. The problem was shipping the cars to Europe before the end of the quarter. The reduction in the price of FSD was likely a response to the need for short-term cash. The price of FSD was returned to its previous levels shortly later in q2.

 

[Musskiah]

Do you also understand to bring in the same subscription revenue per month they have to add as many new subscribers as they had existing ones just to be revenue neutral?

(1) With more real world video data, robotaxis become more rapidly enabled, so it's a fine tradeoff.
(2) The adoption curve probably ensures better than a doubling at this price.

That's the basic risk/reward of the discounted FSD rate.

 

[Mengy]

Do you also understand to bring in the same subscription revenue per month they have to add as many new subscribers as they had existing ones just to be revenue neutral?

That's the whole point though. Lowering the price enables a much greater number of people to subscribe to FSD. Its usually not a 1:1 ratio, by halving the price/mo they should see a much greater than doubling of the take rate. And with millions of new Tesla's being sold every year that FSD market keeps growing in size.

The current FSD take rate is about 7% I believe. If take rate doubles to 14% then its the same income, but its MUCH more likely take rate will be higher than 14% at $99/mo, which means Tesla makes more per month from FSD than they would at $199.

The icing on the cake is the huge influx of training data Tesla will get from this. It's literally a win/win situation, there is no down side to this move IMHO.

 

[Artful Dodger]

And then promptly fizzled to 1/3rd of a percentage. So nothing burger.

When the share price goes up like that shortly after the after hours session starts it's almost always margin calls kicking in. The market makers are all done buying and selling for options by 5:30 p.m. so after that until the close of the after-hours session at 8:00 pm the bears will continue to drive down the share price. That's pretty much what we saw today. Business as usual for Wally.

 

[AndrewZ]

Do you understand what the CEO has said time and time again about what would happen with the price of FSD as it got closer?

Do you also understand to bring in the same subscription revenue per month they have to add as many new subscribers as they had existing ones just to be revenue neutral?

What if the take rate doesn’t double and people who were paying $199 are now paying $99

Next up will be 12 month subscriptions locked in at a certain price and then they’ll start playing with it further, end of quarter sales for $69 — pay $828 for a full year! Automatic renewal afterwards at $99

 

[heltok]

FSD choosing the wrong lane:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778925157530354052