Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

Please don’t offer me “investing" advice. Not interested.

Too late.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I think this is a dangerous mindset. AI is progressing on a classic exponential curve. People type that word a lot, and people think they know hwat that means, but its REALLY hard for humans to appreciate how fast progress happens towards the end. And I think we see that now in FSD V12. Here is a handy representation:
View attachment 1036739
I think Tesla's FSD progress will seem fast, then very quickly extremely fast, then seem almost instantaneous. Bonus points for long term investors if the final run-up happens over a weekend.

here is one person's experience. This can't be dismissed as "well, this is just one person, it works great for me". To be Robotaxi ready, everything needs to be green for everyone.

The fastest Tesla has gone between announcement and production is about a year, so the vehicle itself won't be ready for at least a year, then they have to make sure the software works well on that particular vehicle (the software just doesn't work on everything eg Cybertruck). Plus they have to make it more robust. All those things add up. They'll get there, but it isn't imminent.

 

[insaneoctane]

I agree going all in on the RT would be a risky move since FSD isn't solved yet, but we do know it's what Elon strongly wanted to do a few years ago thanks to the Isaacson biography. The Gen3 consumer car was only planned because Lars and Franz convinced Elon to reluctantly change his mind.

Maybe the rapid progress of FSD lately has convinced Elon to go back on that decision? While risky and probably not a wise course of action, we must also admit it is a possibility.

It is risky. Investors typically don't like risk. I sure hope we get valuable and honest perspective and clarity on this subject during the Q1 conference call...

 

[Webeevdrivers]

The difference between making a RT and a consumer Model 2 will not be significant. They are designed to be built simultaneously on the same line. Tesla will almost certainly (99.99999% probability) do both. But if FSD is solved and approved by regulators by the time it comes out (it won't be in general but may be in VERY limited locales) then Tesla may prioritize production of the RT first. That will take a few days of production (seriously) until that limited market is saturated, then they will proceed with consumer vehicles.

Over time, more regions will get approval and Tesla will prioritize RT over consumer vehicles when they can, but it will be quite awhile before all of the production capacity could be consumed by Robotaxis alone.

Tesla is not stupid. They will make both. Not even sure why we or anyone else is even considering this, it's silly.

Well, the reason that it is being discussed is because everyone and their dog is publishing that it’s being cancelled. It will be interesting to see how tesla plays these cards. They can’t really say either way but also need to be positive enough to instill some confidence.

Neighbour from across the street had to run over yesterday while I was in the driveway and tell me to sell our car while it was still worth something. Elon cancelled all new cars and the company is going bankrupt. No. I’m not kidding.

 

[cliff harris]

They'll get there, but it isn't imminent.

Please watch the animation I posted. This is the whole point. Exponential growth is precisely this phenomena. By the time you realize 'oh its going faster now', its whizzed right past you.

 

[GatorMeat]

Well, the reason that it is being discussed is because everyone and their dog is publishing that it’s being cancelled. It will be interesting to see how tesla plays these cards. They can’t really say either way but also need to be positive enough to instill some confidence.

Neighbour from across the street had to run over yesterday while I was in the driveway and tell me to sell our car while it was still worth something. Elon cancelled all new cars and the company is going bankrupt. No. I’m not kidding.

I don't see how a Robotaxi can be a compact car. I barely fit in a Model 3, and it's difficult for the old and out of shape to get into and out of. There is no way a robotaxi for all can be based on a compact model.

 

[SPadival]

I agree going all in on the RT would be a risky move since FSD isn't solved yet, but we do know it's what Elon strongly wanted to do a few years ago thanks to the Isaacson biography. The Gen3 consumer car was only planned because Lars and Franz convinced Elon to reluctantly change his mind.

Maybe the rapid progress of FSD lately has convinced Elon to go back on that decision? While risky and probably not a wise course of action, we must also admit it is a possibility.

We should thank Franz and Lars for saving us from another “bet the company” induced PTSD.

But we should also thank Elon for having the vision of a vision only FSD when everyone was laughing at him. Damn the lifeboats

 

[GatorMeat]

I don't see how a Robotaxi can be a compact car. I barely fit in a Model 3, and it's difficult for the old and out of shape to get into and out of. There is no way a robotaxi for all can be based on a compact model.

I also think people are dreaming if they think existing consumer owned X/S/3/Y can be put into the robotaxi fleet. How would you ever keep passengers from grabbing the wheel/yoke and mashing the go pedal?

 

[MP3Mike]

I also think people are dreaming if they think existing consumer owned X/S/3/Y can be put into the robotaxi fleet. How would you ever keep passengers from grabbing the wheel/yoke and mashing the go pedal?

How does Waymo do it with their vehicles?

 

[Drumheller]

Many people struggle to grasp exponential growth. If Tesla FSD is now fully end to end neural nets and they are increasing compute, then I think it is possible full robotaxi service may be realized in 2025.

I recall receiving down votes in 2018 or 2019 for saying I thought fsd was still years away, likely 2025 to 2027. Here we are and it's looking good.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Please watch the animation I posted. This is the whole point. Exponential growth is precisely this phenomena. By the time you realize 'oh its going faster now', its whizzed right past you.

I guess where we disagree is that I don't think it is in exponential growth yet. For example, 12.3.3 is worse than 12.3. Sure it probably just bugs, but that adds more time. I'll believe it is in exponential growth when several consecutive releases show significant improvement over the previous versions.

 

[Todd Burch]

Well, the reason that it is being discussed is because everyone and their dog is publishing that it’s being cancelled. It will be interesting to see how tesla plays these cards. They can’t really say either way but also need to be positive enough to instill some confidence.

Neighbour from across the street had to run over yesterday while I was in the driveway and tell me to sell our car while it was still worth something. Elon cancelled all new cars and the company is going bankrupt. No. I’m not kidding.

Yeah, the media publishes a lot of nonsense. That will probably never change.

I used to try to make stupid people be less stupid. Lowering the Stupid Quotient™ was going to be my mark on the world, improving it from the ground up. "Mama, I'm going to lower the worldwide SQ" I would tell my mama.

Then I realized that stupid people actually prefer to be stupid. They like it. A sky-high SQ™ is like a scar on a warrior. A mark of a true transcendent. It makes those with a high SQ™ feel special. Take a look at the comment section for a Facebook post, or a TikTok, or a news website, or a [insert whatever here].

Forrest Gump was right. The Stupid Quotient Is as the Stupid Quotient Does.

 

[Usain]

I also think people are dreaming if they think existing consumer owned X/S/3/Y can be put into the robotaxi fleet. How would you ever keep passengers from grabbing the wheel/yoke and mashing the go pedal?

I heard that Waymo puts a sign inside the car telling passengers not to do that. I guess it's working more or less.

I agree that there are plenty of problems with the current fleet participating in a robotaxi network. I think it will happen to some degree but there will be limitations and eventually, the specialized robotaxi vehicles will dominate.

 

[unk45]

Most of it in the future. If you don't believe Elon when he says Tesla is an AI & Robotics company then you should not own the stock.

True, so long as 'you' understand that THE application are #1 is 'the machine that build this machine' and #2 probably is several different applications including FSD and Optimus.
There is nothing abstract about this, Elon is an engineer, remember, so everything ends out being an engineering problem to solve. The products are the way to monetize all of that.

 

[unk45]

Please don’t offer me “investing" advice. Not interested.

I know a good bankruptcy attorney based near you. You might be interested in them if you follow your 'Not intersted' line a while longer.

 

[GatorMeat]

I heard that Waymo puts a sign inside the car telling passengers not to do that. I guess it's working more or less.

I agree that there are plenty of problems with the current fleet participating in a robotaxi network. I think it will happen to some degree but there will be limitations and eventually, the specialized robotaxi vehicles will dominate.

I've never been in a Waymo, but don't they only allow access to the back seat and passengers have no access to the driver seat?

 

[ggies07]

So, we know the Earth is warming up due to our behavior...Realistically, what do you guys think is the amount of time it will take to get the public to use robotaxis all the time vs. owning a cheaper model?

We here can see the end game for transportation, but the goal is to get off of fossil fuels ASAP. So for the short to medium term, would it be better to still sell a cheaper model whilst the robotaxi life is growing along side it? Then once the public is feeling good about this new way of life, cut the cheaper model off?

We don't want people to keep their gas cars because they can't afford an EV and to slowly start using the EV robotaxi at their convenience.

 

[SPadival]

I also think people are dreaming if they think existing consumer owned X/S/3/Y can be put into the robotaxi fleet. How would you ever keep passengers from grabbing the wheel/yoke and mashing the go pedal?

Umm..

 

[Linkmeup]

I also think people are dreaming if they think existing consumer owned X/S/3/Y can be put into the robotaxi fleet. How would you ever keep passengers from grabbing the wheel/yoke and mashing the go pedal?

What's the difference between an Uber driver with a Model 3/Y/S/X and a Robotaxi? The latter is safer.

 

[hobbes]

So why are you here? This is a thread for investors - are you one?

IMHO this thread is for everyone interested in investing in Tesla. Everyone draws their own conclusions from the discussion and info shared, and you don´t disqualify yourself from participating by selling part or all of your holdings along the way, be it for personal reasons or because it seems more profitable at the time.

You could actually turn the argument around: if you plan to hold forever anyway (the perfect hodler/bull that seems to be a kind of ideal for some), why do you need the discussion and info from here?! As well as renewing your faith in Tesla if you are already a holder the contents here could convince people to buy more or buy back in after dumping.