1 million Teslas by 2020 - what does it take?

[11thIndian]

I don't think Tesla has any issue with having a product that 1M people would want to buy. Supply is going to continue to be the issue for a while, not demand.

If there is 400K reservations now, I'd expect to see another bump after the final reveal in March, and then another once the first cars are produced, and people can see them in person on the road or at a Showroom. I see that as around 600-800K. Then add S & X. Then if Tesla can squeak out even a modest amount of Model Ys by the end of 2019- I think 1M is very possible.

It's all about their ability to scale and efficiency of production.

 

[kort677]

The infrastructure now can barely keep up with the amount of Tesla's out on the road. There is no way they could double or triple the amount of vehicles without everything collapsing.

what infrastructure is collapsing? where is it collapsing? is the addition of EVs the reason for these collapses? Lastly where did you get your info?

 

[BestRadar]

what infrastructure is collapsing? where is it collapsing? is the addition of EVs the reason for these collapses? Lastly where did you get your info?

Look around at all the defects in existing models coming off the lines and the long service times in many service centers requiring weeks for minor repairs. They need to greatly improve service centers well before they dump even 400k Model 3's out to users.

 

[3Victoria]

Look around at all the defects in existing models coming off the lines and the long service times in many service centers requiring weeks for minor repairs. They need to greatly improve service centers well before they dump even 400k Model 3's out to users.

Most of the early teething problems have been ironed out. Service centres will expanded and more opened. There will be no dumping.

 

[Brovane]

Most of the early teething problems have been ironed out. Service centres will expanded and more opened. There will be no dumping.

It isn't like Musk to overcommit resources.........

Passed on past history with Tesla is that they will over promise and it will be a mess and they will eventually clean-up their mess.

 

[bonaire]

Double supercharger spread.
Double sales/service centers.
That would offer more footprint.
Sell Model 3 at a real base price of $35k with fairly priced options.
If full autopilot is $10k more in a $35k car, wondering if that scales for consumers. It would if leases were subsidized somehow.

 

[neroden]

Most of the early teething problems have been ironed out. Service centres will expanded and more opened. There will be no dumping.

It's actually already too late for them to open enough service centers in time. To get them opened for 4Q2017 or 1Q2018, they needed to have been buying and leasing sites already and they haven't been.

It will be a complete mess. Hopefully they'll open enough service centers after the initial wave of complaints.

 

[Merrill]

It is already a mess trying to get a service appointment and unless I'm not aware of it I do not see lots of new service centers being built. This is not brain surgery and Elon has to know that Tesla will need a major expansion of both service centers and superchargers it should have started last year.

 

[Ludus]

I think the critical breakthrough needed to keep up the growth on this path is more profits to provide the massive amounts of capital investment needed both directly and by making financials look better for borrowing and equity offerings.

I see those potentially coming from Tesla Network being the first to deploy L5 self driving vehicles in Mobility Fleets summoned with an App. Rather than a 25% gross profit vehicles deployed in house in TN Network fleets might make 200%. I think Tesla has a good chance of being there first with a working solution. If Tesla could deploy say 50,000 Model X in 20 major cities under TN with no comparable L5 competition they could generate as much profit as a traditional car company selling 10M cars mostly at low margins.

 

[SteveG3]

I think the critical breakthrough needed to keep up the growth on this path is more profits to provide the massive amounts of capital investment needed both directly and by making financials look better for borrowing and equity offerings.

I see those potentially coming from Tesla Network being the first to deploy L5 self driving vehicles in Mobility Fleets summoned with an App. Rather than a 25% gross profit vehicles deployed in house in TN Network fleets might make 200%. I think Tesla has a good chance of being there first with a working solution. If Tesla could deploy say 50,000 Model X in 20 major cities under TN with no comparable L5 competition they could generate as much profit as a traditional car company selling 10M cars mostly at low margins.

indeed, the TN may be sort of the "killer app" that lets Tesla leverage its EVs on the road as a cash machine to accelerate Tesla's acceleration of the advent of sustainable transportation.

 

[3Victoria]

they needed to have been buying and leasing sites already and they haven't been.

Is there documentation to this effect? You have inside knowledge?

 

[dc_h]

I think building out infrastructure, chargers, store/showrooms and service centers are needed. May need the model Y or a high end pickup truck on the S/ X production line. How much over 500k can one car sell. 1 million would be great, but it's a high target.

Camry is currently the most popular global model at 500,000 annual sales.

 

[SteveG3]

I think building out infrastructure, chargers, store/showrooms and service centers are needed. May need the model Y or a high end pickup truck on the S/ X production line. How much over 500k can one car sell. 1 million would be great, but it's a high target.

Camry is currently the most popular global model at 500,000 annual sales.

my understanding is that the Toyota Corolla sold about 1.3 million units last year. of course, it's a less expensive car than the Model 3, however, there are dozens of gasoline cars to choose among at that price, but as things stand now 2020 the Model 3 will be the only EV in the under $40,000 price range available in more than boutique production volumes (possibly later to be joined by a VW model after a couple of years of ramping production).

all that said, I'd really like to see Tesla offer a few different headlight/facia combinations for the Model 3 by 2020. when the reveal happened people expressed all kinds of opinions on what this part of the car needs to look like. tastes vary. variations on this part of the car have been offered by other automakers for the same model (the current Corolla for one). if Tesla does this, I'd be very confident of the 3 drawing over a million in demand... perhaps several million

 

[dc_h]

my understanding is that the Toyota Corolla sold about 1.3 million units last year. of course, it's a less expensive car than the Model 3, however, there are dozens of gasoline cars to choose among at that price, but as things stand now 2020 the Model 3 will be the only EV in the under $40,000 price range available in more than boutique production volumes (possibly later to be joined by a VW model after a couple of years of ramping production).

all that said, I'd really like to see Tesla offer a few different headlight/facia combinations for the Model 3 by 2020. when the reveal happened people expressed all kinds of opinions on what this part of the car needs to look like. tastes vary. variations on this part of the car have been offered by other automakers for the same model (the current Corolla for one). if Tesla does this, I'd be very confident of the 3 drawing over a million in demand... perhaps several million

Hope you are right. Good correction on the Corolla.

 

[3Victoria]

The commonest 'want' from forum members is a hatchback. The model Y, with the 3, should easily allow continued ramping past 1M cars/yr.

 

[11thIndian]

The commonest 'want' from forum members is a hatchback. The model Y, with the 3, should easily allow continued ramping past 1M cars/yr.

In a perfect world they Tesla would have unveiled the Model 3 platform with both the sedan and cSUV variants. But I think it would have doomed them from a practicality perspective, considering how much buildout and investment is necessary JUST for the existing Model 3 rollout. As a perspective Model Y owner, I have to wait- but I'd rather that than a frustrating or failed execution for the company overall.

 

[N5329K]

They built a small number of exciting roadsters that changed how people think about electric cars.
They've built a compelling alternative to high-end Mercedes, Jaguars and BMW sedans, and an SUV that goes head to head (and sometimes outsells) luxury SUV's from other manufacturers.
They're about to build a compelling alternative to entry-level luxury sedans like the BMW 3 series.
To hit the truly big numbers, they'll need to use eveything they've learned along the way and add a Tesla Camry/Accord to the stable.
And the infrastructure that big numbers will demand.
Robin

 

[YBT]

How much power does a job site use in a day? That is a great application. Could one not just use a PowerWall, even today?

That's hard to say (it depends on the size of the site and stage of completion). An easier idea is to look at the needs of an individual tradesman, for instance a carpenter, who may be running 3/4kW loads through an inverter to power 120/240v tools over the course of several hours (most contractors are running a combination of cordless and corded gear so it's rare that level of draw would be sustained across a whole day).

So if we assume 120W nominal draw across 10 hours of work (inverter idling, charging 18v batteries) + 2.5 hours of heavy draw usage @ an avg. 3kW (running a jackhammer, rip saw, large corded grinder, etc) that gives us (120W x 10) + (3kW x 2.5) = 8.7kWh, so let's say 9kWh for nice round numbers. A utility vehicle with a 70kWh battery would be perfectly size for an individual contractor's needs throughout a day with enough energy left over to comfortably get to and from the job site (if travel is within the range of say 50 - 100 km each way).

Put four 330W solar panels on top of said utility vehicle and if parked in the sun you can reasonably expect a yield of (1.3kW x 6hrs) ~8kWh's which covers your average usage allowing for full vehicle capacity available for driving, towing etc.

 

[Grendal]

They built a small number of exciting roadsters that changed how people think about electric cars.
They've built a compelling alternative to high-end Mercedes, Jaguars and BMW sedans, and an SUV that goes head to head (and sometimes outsells) luxury SUV's from other manufacturers.
They're about to build a compelling alternative to entry-level luxury sedans like the BMW 3 series.
To hit the truly big numbers, they'll need to use eveything they've learned along the way and add a Tesla Camry/Accord to the stable.
And the infrastructure that big numbers will demand.
Robin

I think 500K to 1 million Teslas is possible. That's S, X, 3, and Y combined. There will need to be some more battery breakthroughs to get the price low enough to compete with a Camry/Accord. One more step in battery quality better and I think it will be possible. $5K for 60 kWh at the pack level should be able to do it. That's basically another 30% reduction from what the gigafactory did to create the Model 3. So another 8 to 10 years, maybe a little less.

 

[eye.surgeon]

The speed and scale of the expansion necessary for Tesla to have the manufacturing capacity to build 1 million cars by 2020 almost defies comprehension. It most certainly defies everything that is currently known about manufacturing automobiles. This will be an interesting 3 years. I'm pulling for Tesla, but I'm also living in a fact-based reality. It requires an almost religious level of faith to believe they will do it.

Just to highlight one of many almost insurmountable obstacles, they will have to open a new service center almost every week over the next 3 years to even be able to service a fleet of 1 million Teslas. Does anyone see that as possible?