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On August 31st, 2021, “Troy Teslike” tweeted data from his long running survey of thousands of Tesla vehicle buyers, showing a low take rate for FSD, Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” software add-on offered since late 2016. For Q2 2021, that survey shows a worldwide FSD take rate of only 11% across all Tesla models, compared to a high of 46% in Q2 2019. Rather than simply assuming this represents a major loss of confidence in FSD, it is worth examining the data and understanding the factors that led to this decline.




Here is the worldwide tableFSD take rate jumped in Q2 2019 because Tesla changed FSD from including nothing to including all existing main features. It dropped later because the price increased, ASP dropped and China sales increased where FSD rate is low https://t.co/IhbEPZOQu1 pic.twitter.com/rzZfM4xDPU— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike)...

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IslandRoadster

Former Owner of #609
Nov 24, 2018
381
293
Bainbridge Island, WA
I think another factor, which is hard to capture with data, is that the people buying Teslas now are not, in large part, fan-boys like those of us that comment in the forums. They're car buyers, who just want a good car. Many FSD purchasers before were people who wanted to help the mission, to push electrification and the concept of FSD forward. We considered it an investment.

Now, the average car buyer doesn't want to invest in Tesla. They just want a nice car and they want something for their money. When there's *actual* full self-driving, they'll buy it. But for now, they're just not going to loan Tesla money. Early FSD adopters were willing to make that loan.
 

Twiglett

Single pedal driver
Oct 3, 2014
3,140
3,299
Austin
unsurprising really. The owner profile has changed from early adopter, so less likely to throw 10k at something that probably won't be delivered in the lifetime of a three year lease.
If they still sold EAP I'm sure lots of folks would go for it.
Right now they are being asked to pay $10k to be delivered EAP in terms of what is delivered but much more expensive than EAP.
I have FSD on my car, I'll be replacing it soon and also getting one for my wife. I have no intention of spending $10 per car for something that is still in beta. Heck, even AP is still beta but at least that's included. FSD might be worth money when it doesn't have the beta tag on it, but not before.
 

EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
11,734
32,414
Seattle, WA
Can we stop calling Elon’s predictions “overly optimistic” and call them what they really are?
As unrealistic as a new EV company able to survive in a industry where a newcomer has not survived in 80 years ?

A take rate of 12% is garbage no matter how you slice it.
Compared to what ?
 

Ogre

Member
Sep 6, 2021
827
2,647
Oregon
Who really cares about putting the data in Troy's spreadsheets now ? As a % of sales the numbers are very low now - making them less & less reliable.

We have no idea what the actual take rate is.
I agree, people put too much credence in these crowd-sourced spreadsheets.

Often they get so clogged up it's difficult to just enter data into them. I certainly don't bother.

What happens when the spreadsheet's take rate drops below 0.1% of Tesla owners?
 
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If they still sold EAP I'm sure lots of folks would go for it.
I'd agree. I would be happy to pay for EAP as I find it valuable to have the automated lane change and navigate from one freeway to another.

If Tesla charge $4,000 for EAP now and the take rate for EAP is another 15-20%, that's a lot of money for not having to do much. It's all software... Using the 500,000 delivery #s someone shared above, 20% of that @ $4,000 a piece is $400MM... all purely profit!!!

Hopefully they are reading this post :)
 
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glide

Active Member
Jun 6, 2018
3,971
5,584
USA
Autopilot is so incredible on highways that FSD is not essential for people doing 90% highway driving. If Autopilot wasn’t included the take rate of FSD would be over 50%
And I’m sure Tesla would love to still be able to charge for standard autopilot. The fact is, many other companies have implemented auto lane keeping and auto lane change in vehicles that cost substantially less.
 

OrthoSurg

TSLA-digger
Jun 2, 2017
1,273
9,303
Montreal
And I’m sure Tesla would love to still be able to charge for standard autopilot. The fact is, many other companies have implemented auto lane keeping and auto lane change in vehicles that cost substantially less.
I think AP wasn’t included in the first SR Model 3 release but then they included it in the car and got the $4,000 AP price in the MSRP
 

qdeathstar

Completely Serious
May 17, 2019
3,930
4,201
VB
if you actually read the article, it's basically saying the take rate continues to be good.
And I’m sure Tesla would love to still be able to charge for standard autopilot. The fact is, many other companies have implemented auto lane keeping and auto lane change in vehicles that cost substantially less.
At least in the cars I have driven it doesn’t work nearly as well.
 

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