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smorgasbord
Active Member
JP will be terribly disappointed, but I suspect he will twist nothing into something.
thelastdeadmouse
Member
The report says 2650 Model S's sold last year. That's a little over $15,250 per car. If they sell 20,000 this year that's over 300 million dollars in extra revenue.
There's been speculation on how much Tesla would get per car, but as far as I know this is the first data directly from Tesla.
The guidance on this item was very clear, though: Tesla isn't counting on future ZEV revenues to meet its margin forecasts. Pure gravy.
Here I have something for you:
"We have also publicly announced our intent to develop a third generation electric vehicle to be produced at the Tesla Factory. We intend to
offer this vehicle at a lower price point and expect to produce it at higher volumes than our Model S. We expect that this vehicle will be
produced a few years after the introduction of the Model X crossover."
A FEW years! What if TSLA can't sustain its sales of the Model S and Model X to get enough revenue to fund the R&D costs of Gen III which won't be out for a few years. I take 2014+few years = 2017-2018 for the Gen III. Thats a long time from now, with much more un-certainty than the original 2016 goal for the Gen III we saw before...
Interesting that they reported a material weakness in internal control over financial reporting due to an error in its cash flow statement. It is unfortunate that what appears to be an inadvertent gross up of components of the statement it was determined to rise to the level of a material weakness.
For those familiar with such official language, have we already been "introduced" to Model X crossover or not? If yes, did it happen before or after folks like bonnie made a reservation?
AustinPowers
Total Smeghead
I believe "introduced", in this context, means "rolling off the assembly line".
My guess for Tesla's timeline for the next 3-4 years:
2014: Model X deliveries and BlueStar reveal.
2015: BlueStar deliveries (possibly 2016 instead) and Roadster 3.0 "revealed".
2016: Roadster 3.0 deliveries.
Since we haven't yet even seen a Gen3 and probably won't until X deliveries start I doubt it will be delivered in 2015, which will also probably push back Roadster 3.0. I'm planning on 2016 for G3 and 2017 for R3.
Rifleman
Now owns 2 Model S's!!!
I'm not happy about it (since my Volt Lease is up in September of 2015, and I really want to replace it with a Tesla) but I think that you are right on this one.
I'll be surprised if G3 ships before 2017. That's 4 years from now. 2 years for the X (2015), another 2 for the G3(2017). The G3's volume is a order of magnitude higher. That requires some major investments in factory tooling, staffing, shipping logistics, etc.
Indeed, and perhaps additional factories. That will require new financing. I would not be surprised at a follow-on offering of new shares once a trend of profits is established. By then the receipts would be recognized as fresh money needed for investment in expansion rather than to cover losses. It may actually be a positive for both the share price and the introduction dates for new models.
smorgasbord
Active Member
You are way too optimistic:
and
"Few" is at least 3, maybe 4 years. So that's end of 2017 for Gen3 at the earliest, probably 2018. And that probably means Roadster is more like 2020, if at all. And, that's all assuming Musk doesn't move on after a successful Gen3 launch.
That's actually the one thing they should be fine with. They're only using something like 20% of the current factory and it used to produce something like 300,000+ cars a year, so they've at least got the space.
Volker.Berlin
Member
Just to add a little perspective: Roadster to Model S was 2008 through 2012, i.e., 4 years. And the Roadster didn't really contribute too much to Tesla's bottom line during those years. As much as I wish the Gen III would be available NOW, with the Model S being on track to generate 20+% gross margin at 20k units p.a., I have no concerns regarding Tesla's viability as a company with seeing Gen III scheduled for the end of the decade.
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