The production prototype was done months ago. I think now they are just maniacally tweaking and making sure their suppliers are ready for ramp. The main delay was due to Elon's insistence on perfection. It's in the benefit of consumers to wait for an amazing product instead of a half baked one, even though Elon's idea of half baked is better than the majority's idea of perfection...
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The production prototype was done months ago. I think now they are just maniacally tweaking and making sure their suppliers are ready for ramp. The main delay was due to Elon's insistence on perfection. It's in the benefit of consumers to wait for an amazing product instead of a half baked one, even though Elon's idea of half baked is better than the majority's idea of perfection...
They have said they will be working on a sedan and SUV for the Gen 3 platform. Others speculate that it may also be small enough to work for the next roadster.
The Model X will have:
- falcon-wing doors (look, shiny!)
- 4WD
- a tow rating (unless something has changed)
- a slightly more utilitarian form factor
Let me emphasize that a bit more
- 4WD
It's chasm-filling and sets them up very nicely for Gen 3 and beyond as they bring down the cost.
When Model X finally hits the market I expect an extremely positive reaction. Other manufacturers should be very scared that their cash cow SUV market is threatened. Since they're usually high margin and very inefficient they could be very vulnerable.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I don't know why you'd think a major structural redesign of the vehicle would in anyway speed up the process. I'm quite sure they were fully committed to the falcon doors before the seal issues popped up.
MartinAustin
Active Member
That major structural redesign may already be done... they are just still trying to do the falcon doors thing (which I hope they can get right), but they have a conventional doors design waiting in the wings if they need to climb down.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
You're assuming they designed a conventional door fall back, including production tooling, for a vehicle that is likely going to start production in 6 months. This would require different roof panels, interior pieces, door jambs, doors, etc. I would imagine something like that would also require separate crash testing and certification. I don't know enough about vehicle production to say for sure but I doubt they have created any of that.
So yes I'm worried about the falcon door delay too. Given their battery supply constraints though it is entirely possible that the unexpectedly high demand for model s has allowed them to slip the model x launch without any execution penalty. Won't last forever though.
actually do we know for sure the delay is due to the falcon wing door itself? I thought it was due to the 2nd row passenger swiveling seats ...
No, Elon has said at least twice now that the delay is to 'perfect' the difficult engineering questions associated with the Falcon doors. There certainly may be other causes but this is the only one he has been specific about.
Yes, to the thought above that there really is no urgency to push the X out before it is in Elon's mind, 'perfect'. They can't make enough model Ss to satisfy demand. They are battery constrained until at least the second half of 2014. Elon also mentioned that 2014 would be the year they might test the demand limits for the S. So far, no where near a production number that tests the limit.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Didn't get that far with my theorizing. I would just be surprised if they switch to that plan since it would be one more short-term set-back. (crushed by the long-term rosy future
) Just considering alternative futures that are hopefully ruled out in due time.In other news, I happen to be in the UK at the moment on business. I hope to make it down to London to observe whatever the Model S launch is!
Didn't get that far with my theorizing. I would just be surprised if they switch to that plan since it would be one more short-term set-back. (crushed by the long-term rosy future
In other news, I happen to be in the UK at the moment on business. I hope to make it down to London to observe whatever the Model S launch is!
I thi k the launch is invite only. It's tomorrow, I believe.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Buckling Doors, Dual Mode Wheel Drive, Volt-Cars and Driving Without A Clip
I thought some might find useful and entertaining this list of Seeking Alpha's mistranscriptions of the Tesla 2014 Annual Shareholders meeting:
2251683-tesla-motors-tsla-ceo-elon-musk-hosts-2014-annual-stockholder-meeting-and-public-webcast-transcript
Funny Comedy Mistranscriptions:
Buckling Doors, Dual Mode Wheel Drive, Volt-Cars and Driving Without A Clip
This transcript contains significant errors and grammatical oddities that distort meanings. Not as bad as Seeking Alpha's 4Q2012 Tesla earnings transcript http://bit.ly/1nRzszQ , but if you need to accurately quote and understand Elon--for example, writing an article or making investment decisions--it's best to listen to the original video webcast http://bit.ly/1hyOhon.
Examples format:
min:sec
Actual Tesla 2014 Annual Shareholder Meeting 02Jun2014
Seeking Alpha transcription 03Jun2014
11:11
…used to say, well, I think the car is really safe unless you drive it off a cliff, and then somebody drove it off a cliff.
…would just say I think the car is really safe unless you drive without a clip and then somebody drove without the clip.
21:23
…in particular, getting the falcon wing door right
…in particularly getting the buckling door right
22:32
dual motor all wheel drive
dual mode [wheel] drive
28:18
As people probably know, I'm not the biggest fan of fuel cells. I usually call them "fool cells."
As [Phil] probably know, I’m not the biggest kind of fuel cells. I usually call them full cells.
39:00
Delusional shareholder: I'm also a super genius like yourself.
Elon: Not sure I'm one, but all right.
Delusional shareholder: I'm also super genius like yourself.
Elon: Okay. I'm one, but all right.
40:05
I think we need to move on to another question, my apologies.
I think we need to move on to another question, mic providers?
41:04
So the intent of the Superchargers is not to create some sort of walled-garden or anything--we're actually happy to have other manufacturers…
So in terms of Superchargers, it’s not create some sort of [volt-car] or anything, we actually have to have other manufacturers...
47:20
It's rare that a day goes by when there's not some new battery chemistry that is announced. I should maybe give people a good filter for assessing any new battery chemistry in terms of its potential: the key metric is energy density...
It's rare that if it goes by when there is not some new battery chemistry that is announced. But I should, maybe good people, a good filter for assessing any new battery chemistry in terms of its potential. But the key metric is energy density...
48:10
20% of our current cell energy density.
20% of our current sold energy density.
49:07
My response always when I hear about electrochemical breakthroughs is "please send us a sample cell." That usually--well, always--has resulted in nothing happening.
My response always when I hear about electric chemical breakthroughs is please send us a sample cell that always has resulted in nothing is happening.
54:40:
And in terms of a next generation Roadster, that's probably five years away...
And in terms of next generation Roadster, that’s --
[missing section 54:43 to 59:33, including the noteworthy:
59:19
...there's certainly the potential there for Tesla to be one of the most valuable companies in the world in the long term, contingent upon our execution...]
1:12:47
Right now it's sort of more the current collectors and the main contactors and fuses
Right now, yes sort of more the current collectors and like the main contractors and fusers
I thought some might find useful and entertaining this list of Seeking Alpha's mistranscriptions of the Tesla 2014 Annual Shareholders meeting:
2251683-tesla-motors-tsla-ceo-elon-musk-hosts-2014-annual-stockholder-meeting-and-public-webcast-transcript
Funny Comedy Mistranscriptions:
Buckling Doors, Dual Mode Wheel Drive, Volt-Cars and Driving Without A Clip
This transcript contains significant errors and grammatical oddities that distort meanings. Not as bad as Seeking Alpha's 4Q2012 Tesla earnings transcript http://bit.ly/1nRzszQ , but if you need to accurately quote and understand Elon--for example, writing an article or making investment decisions--it's best to listen to the original video webcast http://bit.ly/1hyOhon.
Examples format:
min:sec
Actual Tesla 2014 Annual Shareholder Meeting 02Jun2014
Seeking Alpha transcription 03Jun2014
11:11
…used to say, well, I think the car is really safe unless you drive it off a cliff, and then somebody drove it off a cliff.
…would just say I think the car is really safe unless you drive without a clip and then somebody drove without the clip.
21:23
…in particular, getting the falcon wing door right
…in particularly getting the buckling door right
22:32
dual motor all wheel drive
dual mode [wheel] drive
28:18
As people probably know, I'm not the biggest fan of fuel cells. I usually call them "fool cells."
As [Phil] probably know, I’m not the biggest kind of fuel cells. I usually call them full cells.
39:00
Delusional shareholder: I'm also a super genius like yourself.
Elon: Not sure I'm one, but all right.
Delusional shareholder: I'm also super genius like yourself.
Elon: Okay. I'm one, but all right.
40:05
I think we need to move on to another question, my apologies.
I think we need to move on to another question, mic providers?
41:04
So the intent of the Superchargers is not to create some sort of walled-garden or anything--we're actually happy to have other manufacturers…
So in terms of Superchargers, it’s not create some sort of [volt-car] or anything, we actually have to have other manufacturers...
47:20
It's rare that a day goes by when there's not some new battery chemistry that is announced. I should maybe give people a good filter for assessing any new battery chemistry in terms of its potential: the key metric is energy density...
It's rare that if it goes by when there is not some new battery chemistry that is announced. But I should, maybe good people, a good filter for assessing any new battery chemistry in terms of its potential. But the key metric is energy density...
48:10
20% of our current cell energy density.
20% of our current sold energy density.
49:07
My response always when I hear about electrochemical breakthroughs is "please send us a sample cell." That usually--well, always--has resulted in nothing happening.
My response always when I hear about electric chemical breakthroughs is please send us a sample cell that always has resulted in nothing is happening.
54:40:
And in terms of a next generation Roadster, that's probably five years away...
And in terms of next generation Roadster, that’s --
[missing section 54:43 to 59:33, including the noteworthy:
59:19
...there's certainly the potential there for Tesla to be one of the most valuable companies in the world in the long term, contingent upon our execution...]
1:12:47
Right now it's sort of more the current collectors and the main contactors and fuses
Right now, yes sort of more the current collectors and like the main contractors and fusers
I attended the meeting in person. I tried to ask a question but was unable to. I then followed up by speaking to Jeff Evanson, the Investor Relations manager, as well as by sending my question to Elon Musk by E-mail.
The question was whether it would be possible to move the annual shareholder date from mid-week to Saturdays or at least for the later part of the week. It's not a hot topic question but as a practical matter I think it affects many shareholders.
The analogy here is with Berkshire Hathaway ("BRK") shareholder meetings (i.e. Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger), which I am also a happy shareholder of. It's just easier to attend such meetings where you don't need to take time off from work in the middle of the week especially if you live far away. Combined with popularity of Mr. Buffett, over 20,000 people from all over the world show up at BRK's meetings, which is good for sales and publicity. In fact, the event pays for itself given the huge number of visitors.
It also helps when the shareholder meetings occur at predictable dates, e.g. first Saturday of June. -- BRK's meetings are on first Sat. of May (except when there is a Mother's Day weekend, which is when the meeting is moved to the last Sat. of April). -- With this target date in mind you can plan trips months in advance.
By the way, Warren Buffett also gets lots of unrelated questions during a 6-hour (!) Q&A session. Lately they started organizing questions better. BRK collaborates with the press by letting them ask 1/3 of questions from the journalists and another 1/3 from pre-selected online submissions. Warren Buffett himself rotates around the press table and then fields the other 1/3 of questions from the audience present. These measures improved general quality of questions significantly.
Yes, security was present in abundance within the facilities as well as near the stage. That's typical for such big events and I think it was a prudent measure.
In the future Tesla might borrow another chapter from Berkshire Hathaway's meetings, i.e. where shareholders wear tags as a proof of ownership. I think that approach would be a more efficient way to manage large venues instead of having people go through their online brokerage accounts and then getting their hands stamped...
There were roughly 400 shareholders present time time. It's easy to imagine how chaotic it would be with 1,000+ people attending the meeting (or better yet 20,000+ people!). At that point, Tesla would definitely need another facility for the meeting. I came about 40 minutes before the official start. The parking lot right in front of the museum was packed with Model S cars. (Haha!)
Most people in the audience seemed to be from the IT/scientific background and/or from the nearby geographic area. So it would help to diversify the shareholder base if meetings are scheduled on weekends. I had five friends who couldn't come for this reason. In past I was unable to attend either although I have been a shareholder since the IPO days.
The question was whether it would be possible to move the annual shareholder date from mid-week to Saturdays or at least for the later part of the week. It's not a hot topic question but as a practical matter I think it affects many shareholders.
The analogy here is with Berkshire Hathaway ("BRK") shareholder meetings (i.e. Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger), which I am also a happy shareholder of. It's just easier to attend such meetings where you don't need to take time off from work in the middle of the week especially if you live far away. Combined with popularity of Mr. Buffett, over 20,000 people from all over the world show up at BRK's meetings, which is good for sales and publicity. In fact, the event pays for itself given the huge number of visitors.
It also helps when the shareholder meetings occur at predictable dates, e.g. first Saturday of June. -- BRK's meetings are on first Sat. of May (except when there is a Mother's Day weekend, which is when the meeting is moved to the last Sat. of April). -- With this target date in mind you can plan trips months in advance.
By the way, Warren Buffett also gets lots of unrelated questions during a 6-hour (!) Q&A session. Lately they started organizing questions better. BRK collaborates with the press by letting them ask 1/3 of questions from the journalists and another 1/3 from pre-selected online submissions. Warren Buffett himself rotates around the press table and then fields the other 1/3 of questions from the audience present. These measures improved general quality of questions significantly.
Yes, security was present in abundance within the facilities as well as near the stage. That's typical for such big events and I think it was a prudent measure.
In the future Tesla might borrow another chapter from Berkshire Hathaway's meetings, i.e. where shareholders wear tags as a proof of ownership. I think that approach would be a more efficient way to manage large venues instead of having people go through their online brokerage accounts and then getting their hands stamped...
There were roughly 400 shareholders present time time. It's easy to imagine how chaotic it would be with 1,000+ people attending the meeting (or better yet 20,000+ people!). At that point, Tesla would definitely need another facility for the meeting. I came about 40 minutes before the official start. The parking lot right in front of the museum was packed with Model S cars. (Haha!)
Most people in the audience seemed to be from the IT/scientific background and/or from the nearby geographic area. So it would help to diversify the shareholder base if meetings are scheduled on weekends. I had five friends who couldn't come for this reason. In past I was unable to attend either although I have been a shareholder since the IPO days.
Benz
Active Member
ER Q1 2015 Conference Call will be on May 6th 2015. We will know the date for the 2015 shareholder meeting a few days after that, I think.
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