2014 Q4 Earnings Report and Conference Call

[FluxCap]

Paraphrasing Musk: My personal opinion is that we will have a similar market cap in 10 years as AAPL currently does ($700 billion).

Or, dividing our market cap by Apple's and multiplying by our current share price, that's $5,500 per TSLA share. I'd take that.

 

[StapleGun]

did he just say ******** (BS)?

Looks like Musk brought his bravado today.

 

[SuryaDham]

Paraphrasing Musk: My personal opinion is that we will have a similar market cap in 10 years as AAPL currently does ($700 billion).

paraphrasing more:
...with relatively little dilution...

 

[chickensevil]

That's... a very bold statement.

Well, the caveat is in 10 years... But 700B in 10 years, what is the standard discount to come up with a today market cap on that projection?

 

[aznt1217]

Looks like Musk brought his bravado today.

Him and his team DID just launch a deep space mission today... you know only 15+ years in the making.

 

[flankspeed8]

paraphrasing more:
...with relatively little dilution...

Define little? Infrastructure spending sounds massive. They are going to have to raise plenty of capital especially ahead of M3. He is not sugar coating IMO

 

[aznt1217]

Well, the caveat is in 10 years... But 700B in 10 years, what is the standard discount to come up with a today market cap on that projection?

That's still bananas even factoring in inflation + any returns the S&P may generate discounted back 10 years.

 

[chickensevil]

700B - 30B = 670B / 10 = 67B linear market cap growth per year... I would also take that... so next year's PT should be what... 90B Market Cap with 125M shares 720$ a share??? I would totally take that too

 

[StapleGun]

Well, the caveat is in 10 years... But 700B in 10 years, what is the standard discount to come up with a today market cap on that projection?

About $2550 per share assuming an 8% discount for 10 years. That wouldn't include any dilution.

 

[hockeythug]

That was a good question.

 

[jhm]

Paraphrasing Musk: My personal opinion is that we will have a similar market cap in 10 years as AAPL currently does ($700 billion).

$5500/share in 2025, 39% average annual appreciation.

Damn, if that works out, I can retire early.

 

[Causalien]

did he just say ******** (BS)?

What was this about? I was on the phone.

 

[Krugerrand]

Define little? Infrastructure spending sounds massive. They are going to have to raise plenty of capital especially ahead of M3. He is not sugar coating IMO

And yet he just said they have no intentions of raising capital.

 

[chickensevil]

In the face of significant capex we will still be significantly cash flow positive in Q4!!! WOOOOO Love that this is still going to happen

 

[Twiddler]

WOOT! Shout out to forum noise!!

 

[flankspeed8]

And yet he just said they have no intentions of raising capital.

He said at this time....and then went on to talk about minor, minimal and moderate all in the context of dilution. I am pro-Tesla all the way but how in the heck are they going to do this without a capital raising event? CNBC had a Tesla bull who acknowledged that 4Q is when they may have to do this. I am just saying...


Also, I seem to be on about a 2 minute delay. I tuned in at about 6:10CST which may have been my problem.

 

[wheresmyx?]

Elon Musk is great marketing person considering he's an engineer by background! The long-term fundamentals are positive. The question is can they execute? Where's my X? Less talk and more execution is the best tonic for the stock price.

 

[sundaymorning]

And yet he just said they have no intentions of raising capital.

He intends to raise, not anytime soon, but when he does, it'll cause only a small dilution to customers. This was what I thought I heard.

 

[Gerasimental]

What was this about? I was on the phone.

He was emphasising that non-GAAP profits are not '********' profits but real ones.

 

[mibaro2]

drive train issue . : the units get repaired, not trashed.
Didn't we go over the shim issue last time?