2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[SunCatcher]

What Will Disrupt The Power Industry? A Little Bit Of Empathy.

It’s a great time to be working on innovation in the power sector. Technology advancements that were once thought to be fringe (to the sector), are now coming mainstream. Utilities are starting to develop their solar panel deployment strategies as the price of solar continues to plummet (image below), the ‘wait and see approach’ that was prevalent in 2016 due to political uncertainty is now giving way to ‘what projects can we deploy’ in 2017. And of course the upstarts, Tesla et al, are ramping up their offensive against the traditional utility with announcements of solar roofs and new gigafactories. It’s feeling like the disrupted (utilities) might finally be waking up to the inevitability of disruption.

 

[GoTslaGo]

How about a link to this change in policy? Thanks.

My email inbox this morning (part of the message):

Quote:

Great news—starting today, your Model S or Model X has free, unlimited Supercharging. You will no longer be charged for pay per use Supercharging, although idle fees will still apply.
Even better, you can also give unlimited Supercharging to five friends, along with $1,000 in credit toward a new Model S or Model X.

End Quote.

(We just took delivery of our X early April)

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I think you are right and I think that this will eventually be the case, but I wouldn't be surprised at a few bumps in the road for the transition. Q2 and Q3 might be a touch light on S/X deliveries. (I could see 47,000 as the upper bound for 1H17)

I see 1H17 deliveries closer to 50,000 due primarily to increased awareness of the Tesla brand as chatter around Model 3 has been increasing.

 

[T3slaTulips]

I see 1H17 deliveries closer to 50,000 due primarily to increased awareness of the Tesla brand as chatter around Model 3 has been increasing.

Maybe, if the next 3 weeks pick up. I'm reading "confusion about Model 3 being next gen" and reintroducting Free supercharging for owners as a slight downturn in orders. I hope I'm wrong and they're just trying to hit it out of the park and pass 50k, but I feel the former more likely.

 

[mmd]

I see 1H17 deliveries closer to 50,000 due primarily to increased awareness of the Tesla brand as chatter around Model 3 has been increasing.

Tesla model 3 chatter.

IMHO, selling 20k to 30k of the dumbed down Model 3 next year will be pretty good achievement.

 

[Reciprocity]

View attachment 227745

Tesla model 3 chatter.
View attachment 227746

IMHO, selling 20k to 30k of the dumbed down Model 3 next year will be pretty good achievement.

When looking at keywords you really should focus on those that include a modifier that would indicate buyer intent. Otherwise you are dealing with meaningless data. Kinda like how you decide to sell short a certain stock based on bad information.

 

[Navin]

Tesla Is "Coolest" Says Google

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Maybe, if the next 3 weeks pick up. I'm reading "confusion about Model 3 being next gen" and reintroducting Free supercharging for owners as a slight downturn in orders. I hope I'm wrong and they're just trying to hit it out of the park and pass 50k, but I feel the former more likely.

I do not see foresee a significant decline in deliveries in Q2.

Regardless, quarterly deliveries in 2017 are not meaningful by any stretch of the imagination to Tesla's intrinsic value.

Such myopic focus should be left to bears, who are likely trying to infiltrate the TMC community to spread FUD by creating multiple usernames.

I don't know how they sleep at night, but this has always been how they operate.

 

[Reciprocity]

I do not see foresee a significant decline in deliveries in Q2.

Regardless, quarterly deliveries in 2017 are not meaningful by any stretch of the imagination to Tesla's intrinsic value.

Such myopic focus should be left to bears, who are likely trying to infiltrate the TMC community to spread FUD by creating multiple usernames.

I don't know how they sleep at night, but this has always been how they operate.

Tesla sees declines or they wouldn't have guided to 47,000 knowing they probably could hit 25k in Q1. Tesla clearly has levers to pull and have/will as necessary. What levers does GM have to pull?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla sees declines or they wouldn't have guided to 47,000 knowing they probably could hit 25k in Q1. Tesla clearly has levers to pull and have/will as necessary. What levers does GM have to pull?

Who cares if Q2 deliveries are 22,000 or 25,000?!?!?!?!

That's a difference of only 3,000 when the company has lined up TWO HUNDRED TIMES that many deliveries for Model 3.

How is this even an issue?!?!

Leave myopic speculation to deplorable bears who are shamelessly trying to undermine an American company that is moving the world forward.

 

[larmor]

Tesla Is "Coolest" Says Google

Imagine if Google had polled elementary and pre schoolers...

 

[winfield100]

Maybe, if the next 3 weeks pick up. I'm reading "confusion about Model 3 being next gen" and reintroducting Free supercharging for owners as a slight downturn in orders. I hope I'm wrong and they're just trying to hit it out of the park and pass 50k, but I feel the former more likely.

as a single data point, I swung by the Rockville, Maryland, USA Service Center off Gude Drive about 7:10 am Thursday morning.
There was a car carrier unloading 7-8 Tesla's, S&X, there were 40-50 parked outside, some with tags and for service, some looked like for delivery. there were a bunch hidden inside.
Today, Saturday morning, less than 1/2 that number. they are going somewhere... around the Washington, DC area, and i spot random ones, just "cruising around here and there"
"rolling rolling rolling, keep them dawgies rolling.....thru any kinda weather, hell bent for leather"
(and i'm still impressed seing an S60 with Connecticut plates on I-95 heading north in South Carolina, about 700+ miles, just roadtrippin

 

[mmd]

When looking at keywords you really should focus on those that include a modifier that would indicate buyer intent. Otherwise you are dealing with meaningless data. Kinda like how you decide to sell short a certain stock based on bad information.
View attachment 227748

Now now! Have you taken the cherry picking here to a little extreme, by changing the default timeline of 5 years to 12 months and picking your own custom phrase?
I wonder why someone would do that. Here is again, the 5 year picture. The forest.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Leave myopic speculation to deplorable bears who are shamelessly trying to undermine an American company that is moving the world forward.

I seriously doubt that bears on Internet forums have enough influence to undermine Tesla. Most of the people here, including myself, are basically nobodys in the big picture. This is not like Top Gear deliberately making the Roadster look bad for an international audience in the name of entertainment.

Bear arguments do have their uses. The more frustration and logically flawed arguments they post, the weaker their position grows.

 

[Fallenone]

Now now! Have you taken the cherry picking here to a little extreme, by changing the default timeline of 5 years to 12 months and picking your own custom phrase?
I wonder why someone would do that. Here is again, the 5 year picture. The forest.

View attachment 227757

You mean this? A car that's not even able to be bought beating the bread and butter of a century old company?

 

[elasalle]

Tesla Is "Coolest" Says Google

Ans SP is gonna be the hottest

 

[T3slaTulips]

I do not see foresee a significant decline in deliveries in Q2.

Regardless, quarterly deliveries in 2017 are not meaningful by any stretch of the imagination to Tesla's intrinsic value.

Such myopic focus should be left to bears, who are likely trying to infiltrate the TMC community to spread FUD by creating multiple usernames.

I don't know how they sleep at night, but this has always been how they operate.

No intent to sound like a bear, I'm rather the opposite. Just reading between the lines that it might take a few more quarters before we head to orbit.

 

[sdtslafan]

View attachment 227745

Tesla model 3 chatter.
View attachment 227746

IMHO, selling 20k to 30k of the dumbed down Model 3 next year will be pretty good achievement.

That single blip in interest generated 400K orders. Imagine what happens when Tesla actually attempts to generate new sustained interest in Model 3.

 

[Reciprocity]

Now now! Have you taken the cherry picking here to a little extreme, by changing the default timeline of 5 years to 12 months and picking your own custom phrase?
I wonder why someone would do that. Here is again, the 5 year picture. The forest.

View attachment 227757

Or as I like to call it, relevant term and relevant time period.

 

[Navin]

Great 20 minutes to spend understanding Tesla's recent 1st quarter: