2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[kenliles]

Cheers to the tesla asylum crew here.

LONG’S GOT GAME!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

A significant chunk of BMW is the 3 series, 100k-ish a year are sold in the U.S. Tesla has 400k reservations, and is going to be making something like 5k a week. So the m3 will beat all of BMW 3 series US yearly sales in 5-6 months (that's if you very generously assume sales in 2018 will be the same as 2016). Probably not all m3 buyers would also be 3 series buyers, but plenty of them are, and 40k cars get a lot more attention than phones, it will be obvious pretty much as soon as the m3 is cranking. BMW might double in a few years, but it's probably going to be a rough road since they are just now starting to get serious about going electric, and I'm not sure where they are with autonomy.

3 series sales dropped about 25% last year in the US, that was partly just because of the m3 announcement.
BMW 3 Series - Wikipedia

The Blackberry comparison is an interesting parallel though, because like BMW, they had a very strong following in Canada, it was basically the highest profile Canadian company, just like BMW or VW is to Germany. Most of 3 series sales are outside the US, and it's fair to expect Germans to keep buying a lot of German cars, but the model 3 is pretty much to the 3 series as the iPhone was to Blackberries, at least BMW/VW are steering in the right direction.

The purpose of the BlackBerry comparison was not to draw parallels with BMW, but to show that, even if a company is obviously doomed to zero percent market share, its stock can act irrationally in the shorter term and double.

Even a 50% rise from the current low valuation multiples of the traditional automakers can wipe out any shorts, so why bother with a 100% (at best) potential return, especially when you can more than double your money in Tesla?

 

[vgrinshpun]

I hope National Geographic or someone is doing a whole show on this ramp, it'd be kind of interesting to see exactly what they mean by bottlenecks and so forth.

Meh.

I prefer video similar to "How not to land orbital rocket booster" to be produced by Tesla. I like Elon's music and commentary way more than National Geographic's.

Wait... that is a good idea for tweeting at Elon.

 

[JRP3]

I think the second message would have put us in the green today.

Seems as if the message was heard loud and clear regardless

 

[geneclean55]

Gotta love the timing of analysts downgrades/upgrades etc
Luckily this one is a positive for TSLA bulls.
Right when we are up against the resistance line of the infamous triangle pattern...and also coming back up to the weekly 20 ma which had acted as support for months...we get new bullish coverage. Above those levels and we should have a nice run. Coincidence on the timing? I think not.

Also doesn't hurt that SPY is in rampaging beast mode.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Sorry, if you didn't have any margin calls on this drop then you certainly weren't pushing the limits. That's a good thing, but very different from what you've been posting.

Also, I don't know what kind of translation code you are using to describe holdings so I can't describe mine in your language. In any case, I'm not sure that publicly describing the size of one's portfolio serves any purpose. I can say that it's over triple what it was at the start of this year. And I could buy a fleet of Teslas with my winnings. TSLA has been good to me.

Well we clearly don't speak the same language so there is no point in any further conversation

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 251595

Hoping you all will celebrate a small victory for me today! Got it really close to the daily low! Now hoping that stays a low from here on out!

That was one smart trade! Awesome!

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 251560

The hell with it. I'm buying more at the open tomorrow

 

[myusername]

Nomura/Instinet initiates coverage on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) with a Buy rating and a price target of $500.00.

Analyst Romit Shah forecasts "unprecedented" revenue gains for the company ($8 billion in 2016 to $58 billion in 2021). The analyst believes the company has "an insurmountable lead in vehicle range per dollar", benefits from largely inferior competitive field which should drive growth at current levels, will work through Model 3 production problems, and generate upwards of mid-to-high 20% GMs by 2020.

The PT is based on 2.1x 2021 estimated sales.

@myusername any comments?

not directly... this analyst's estimate and today are an example of pure irrationality... and this board is nothing more than a reenforcement of this... this stock will collapse into rationality... and i will be there to witness it. until then... i'm signing off.

 

[TMSE]

not directly... this analyst's estimate and today are an example of pure irrationality... and this board is nothing more than a reenforcement of this... this stock will collapse into rationality... and i will be there to witness it. until then... i'm signing off.

signing off? off to hibernate in your bear den?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

not directly... this analyst's estimate and today are an example of pure irrationality... and this board is nothing more than a reenforcement of this... this stock will collapse into rationality... and i will be there to witness it. until then... i'm signing off.

Buy signal, if I've ever seen one.

 

[TrendTrader007]

not directly... this analyst's estimate and today are an example of pure irrationality... and this board is nothing more than a reenforcement of this... this stock will collapse into rationality... and i will be there to witness it. until then... i'm signing off.

This board is basically the antidote to seeking alpha and anathema to bears

 

[TrendTrader007]

The purpose of the BlackBerry comparison was not to draw parallels with BMW, but to show that, even if a company is obviously doomed to zero percent market share, its stock can act irrationally in the shorter term and double.

Even a 50% rise from the current low valuation multiples of the traditional automakers can wipe out any shorts, so why bother with a 100% (at best) potential return, especially when you can more than double your money in Tesla?

I watched RIMM go up several fold from September 2003 over the next few years
I wish I had bought it back then
But then came along AAPL
Rest is history

 

[everman]

That was one smart trade! Awesome!

Thanks bud! And I want an invite to the TT007 and AB party as well please!

 

[everman]

I watched RIMM go up several fold from September 2003 over the next few years
I wish I had bought it back then
But then came along AAPL
Rest is history

Were you still going to do some charts tonight?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

not directly... this analyst's estimate and today are an example of pure irrationality... and this board is nothing more than a reenforcement of this... this stock will collapse into rationality... and i will be there to witness it. until then... i'm signing off.

The lesson here is to NOT proclaim certainty in an endeavor where uncertainty is the rule.

TSLA is a gamble, and always has been.

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 251560

Okay this is what INTC did in 1990s
My guess is TSLA is where INTC was end of 1994/beginning of 1995
So conservative estimate of at least 10X ROI in terms of SP appreciation from now over next 5 years
So I'm looking at $3500 at the minimum SP by 2023
Damn! I'll be worth $147!!!!
Not bad for someone who came to this greatest country in the world with only $800

 

[TrendTrader007]

Thanks bud! And I want an invite to the TT007 and AB party as well please!

Absolutely bud! You're the coolest!

 

[TrendTrader007]

Were you still going to do some charts tonight?

I'll do a bunch of charts over the next hour
I'm tired of PC nature of this board
Charts are the perfect panacea

 

[TrendTrader007]

I'm not too crazy about this triangle but shorts can't seem to make this thing go away despite their best shot and Chanos and GS as their cheerleaders
Plus the cup w handle still alive
Plus big UP day today on volume up 71%
Plus TSLA came alive on a potentially bearish day with Nasdaq closing at all time high
So S R F......!
(Shorts R F....d!)
And daddy's buying