2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

AB and i saw model 3 while driving to work this am
will ask her to post video and details by tomorrow
the guy got delivery 7 weeks ago, he was driving from SF and works for tesla
SF is 1910 miles from our little town

 

[SPadival]

Nice to see all the $1K "refundable deposits" (as Montana cryptic put it) get converted into $49k bags of cash for Tesla

Seeking Alpha trolls dying a slow death..one reservation at a time.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Nice to see all the $1K "refundable deposits" (as Montana cryptic put it) get converted into $49k bags of cash for Tesla

Seeking Alpha trolls dying a slow death..one reservation at a time.

can't wait for a short squeeze
would love to extract at least a million dollars a day from recalcitrant shorts
several days in a row
it's coming
i will not be satisfied until these morons pay for at least 200 founders series roadsters over the next few years

make it 400 to 1000 founders series roadsters over the next 5 years

 

[dandurston]

Supposedly Australia's 100 MWh battery is complete:
World's most powerful lithium ion battery finished in SA

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Love replying to myself. The 150GWh number should really stun people. This is why batteries will be a real issue for the competition. They dont have to build their own cells, but they have to commit large amounts of funds today to secure supply or forget about it. With some 200 models coming by 2020 and Tesla alone with orders! for 150GWh worth of products, who is going to build everyone else's batteries.

There’s a reason why Tesla is about to announce four more Gigafactories

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla my not want to price the semi until the end of next year. Tesla has a difficult decision in deciding how big to build the semi factory. A lot of Tesla business lines are competing for capital in the time frame of the truck factory decision.

Model 3 needs to hit its negative cash cycle... any day now... invites going out is positive.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I just got an invite to configure my Model 3. Just placed order. Says delivery time 4 weeks. Would be amazing if they could deliver it to me by end of year.

View attachment 262114

Congrats Dave, I hope you get your Model 3 soon and tell us about it.

IIRC there is WAG that there are 10K employee orders. Add another WAG that roughly 1/3 of them choose the LR version, (1/3 SR, 1/3 AWD), although it could be as high as 1/2 IMO, that means Tesla plans to be done with 3.3K-5K of employee M3s by the time they promised deliveries to you and other non-Tesla buyers. Compared with the rumor of 440 M3 delivered recently, we should expect to see a 10X increase of M3 out in the wild within the next 4 weeks.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla may continue to buy batteries (non gigafactory) as a way to leverage other peoples capital. Continually trying to talk Panasonic into making adequate capital investment is probably getting tiresome.

We’re in the dark about any cost differentials.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Of course, there are no comparable ICE cars. But I looked up the LaFerrari, which has 12/16 mpg & a 22.7 gallon tank. So even under the most generous (16) mpg assumptions, it has 363.2 miles of range.

Roadster beats competition on all metrics, just like Model 3. What’s different for roadster is that, while model 3 was priced similarly to 3-series, roadster is priced at 1/10th of other supercars. Don’t ask me why...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

It seems there is a coordinator on the short side. Right now their main topic is cash burn, articles are everywhere talking about cash burn. They probably realized they can't do much damage if they keep debating Tesla Semi and Roadster.

The cash burn is heavy before Model 3 ramp, because of all the spending on parts, robots, production lines, workers, R&D, infrastructure for delivery and charging...... Tesla is accepting a few thousand sets of parts per week, and these parts are not turned into cars, that alone should "burn" $1B each quarter. We should know the money is not really gone. Shorts will never talk about this difference. As soon as the production ramps up, suddenly we get a huge positive cash flow. I think shorts are trying to fool the longs, like they did before the Model S ramp up.

Bears are a lot more organized than Bulls. Any bullish article gets attacked viciously on all platforms, lots of likes and retweets and all that Jazz, so many bulls end up publishing bearish articles once in a while. This is why Bloomberg published the cash burn nonsense shortly after the config article.

On the other hand, there’s a lot of infighting going on the bull side. Bulls diss all media, then complain. It’s really odd actually...

 

[geneclean55]

Wow...
Tesla releases ‘expected price’ of semi electric truck: $150,000 to $200,000

 

[dandurston]

Semi:
300 mile: $150g
500 mile: $180g
Founders: $200g

Deposit increased from $5g to $20g

 

[Sudre]

ROTFL... I bet they had to increase the deposit on the Semi's because they were getting too many!
In a few weeks Elon is going to be talking about the huge unexpected demand and another GF.

 

[Waiting4M3]

A difference of $30K for 200 miles of range. Since the ranges are quoted at fully loaded weight, I'm assuming it's close to the upper range of 2kwh/mi consumption that Tesla told us, so the delta is 400kwh of battery, which is $75/kwh

Edit: Compared to M3, Tesla charges almost $360/kwh ($9K for ~$25kwh extra) for LR vs SR.

This works out to ~$75/kwh that Tesla is charging the customer for the extra range on the semi

 

[EnzoXYZ]

The comparable Porsche costs over $800k. How many petrol heads are willing to spend an extra $600k for less performance to get the sound and smell of petrol?

Like the smell of horse. Guess some do like it. At the end EV vs ICE numbers talk and they will fold.

 

[EinSV]

Wow...
Tesla releases ‘expected price’ of semi electric truck: $150,000 to $200,000

Wow indeed. Be very interested to hear their GF3 plans and expected margins. This should be an extremely compelling price point, especially combined with $0.07/kWh charging.

 

[xhawk101]

That's true for lots of buybacks. It's not true for other cases. It's all relative. Great management usually give growth higher priority than buyback. If you know your company's future earning will be $100 per share per year, and your share price is only $120, then buyback is a no brainer.

If you look at Google, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway's buybacks in recent years, the main reason was they think their shares were undervalued. Not because they run out of ways to expand.

I'll o

 

[dandurston]

$62/kWh Battery Costs in 2020
Others have mentioned what the semi pricing indicates for Tesla's future battery costs, but it's worth developing this a little further.

We expect the 500 mile semi will have a battery at least 900kWh (it could be 1000 or 1050 kWh). The 300 mile Semi should have 60% as much battery since it has 60% as much range, so the $30g premium ($180g vs $150g) for the 500 mile Semi corresponds to at least an extra 360 kWh (540kWh vs 900 kWh). That's a retail price of $83/kWh or better for the battery upgrade.

I expect Tesla is targeting at least a 25% margin on this battery upgrade option. Tesla usually goes for 40% or so margins on upgrade options (e.g. S & X), but if we are conservative and say they are targeting 25% margin here, then that corresponds to an expected cost of $62.50 per kWh. If you change the assumptions to a 1000 kWh pack in the 500 mile Semi and a higher margin on the upgrade, it's easy to get to a $50/kWh cost.

Note that this is the battery pack level cost (not cell cost) and it is for 2020, since production is expected in late 2019. It might even be for 2021 if Tesla is thinking that actual 2020 production will be small and they can afford slim margins for the first year while production ramps.

So hopes of $100/kWh batteries in 2020 seem to be on solid ground.

 

[Gerardf]

Only reason for a buyback would be for Elon to increase his relative share.

But before any consideration of any buyback there will be a Tesla buy-in of Panasonic’s Automotive li-ion Battery Division. This might happen as soon as Panasonic hesitates to invest fast enough for Elon’s liking.

 

[schonelucht]

Deposit increased from $5g to $20g

On the one hand I want to believe this is due to high demand. But then, when they had high demand for the 3, they didn't increase the deposit but increased the planned production. So that brings me to the other hand : that Tesla needs the cash for the deposits and this is an easy way to milk companies that would deposit anyway. It's probably a bit from column A and probably a little bit from column B.