2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MikeC]

There are ~20 people who write more than 80% of the posts here.

There are more than 2,000 people who read and contribute nothing, because most do not have the finance/accounting/economics/investing education/experience.

This is why a team of ~10 shorts can easily influence this stock down with articles that seem detailed and informative, but to a trained eye, are clearly manipulative in one direction. This is the result of the "crowd-sourced" model; just like how fake news affected a whole nation's election.

I have the education/experience to break it down and simplify complex finance/accounting issues. This is how I add value. But unfortunately, I don't have the time to do it for free. If I did, I would.

Maybe 20 people since you joined the forum, but there have been many more extremely helpful contributors than that over the years.

I don't think anyone has a problem with you trying to make money from your research, it just shouldn't be something that you link to from this forum, unless you're a sponsor.

 

[brian45011]

Among the TE related news from the "crowded field with a lot of competitors and solutions", the AES Energy Storage vise president Brian Perusse was given a chance to comment on the AES battery pack costs vs. Tesla's $250/kWh teased by Elon Musk, but side stepped the question. One would think that he would jump at the opportunity, assuming that AES Energy is cost competitive...
Based on conservative assumption of ratio of total installed cost to the cost of battery packs of 2, the $700-$1000/kWh total cost would be consistent with the AES battery pack cost of $350-$500/kWh. Not very impressive.

The South Australia award should clarify the lay of the land soon:

"The South Australian state government said it had received 90 expressions of interest to set up battery storage by December with about 100 megawatts of capacity for one hour...
The state government has not yet set a date for when it will announce the results of the tender. Market leader Samsung SDI's batteries could be used by more than one of the bidders. Some of the others in the running are:

- Tesla Inc. Boss Elon Musk in March offered to install $25 million worth of battery storage within 100 days, and offered it for free if he missed the target.

- South Korea's LG Chem, partner undisclosed

- Zen Energy using batteries from U.S. firm Greensmith

- Privately owned Lyon Group with U.S. power company AES Corp

- Carnegie Clean Energy, Lend Lease Corp with Samsung SDI batteries

- Equis Energy, founded by bankers who worked for Macquarie Group's Korea infrastructure fund. Plans to build two solar power plants in Australia.

- redT Energy, vanadium energy storage machine maker working with an undisclosed partner

- Adelaide-based 1414 Degrees has put forward an alternative proposal for a long term grid scale project and is awaiting feedback, its executive chairman Kevin Moriarty told Reuters."

Factbox: Contenders for South Australia's battery tender

Also GE's new CGTs, that use batteries rather than combusting natural gas to spin the shafts while on stand-by, may also play a role.

"GE has developed a product it calls the LM6000 Hybrid EGT. It includes a 10 MW battery energy storage system, made by GE’s own battery storage offshoot Current, paired with an existing 50 MW gas turbine, also made by GE, and known as an LM6000.

Such a system would allow South Australia to install up to 5 such units to meet its targeted 250 MW, resulting in an extra 50 MW of instant response battery storage spread across the grid, ensuring grid stability, and with 250 MW of emergency capacity in case of a shortfall, or more baseload generators tripping." {The 5 CGTs could be distributed at different locations to relieve local grid congestion.}

S.A. government eyeing world-first gas plus battery storage units

GE and Southern California Edison Debut World’s First Battery-Gas Turbine Hybrid

 

[DurandalAI]

Good lord people, I thought I left the drama behind when I left high school some few decades ago.. Give it a rest.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The South Australia award should clarify the lay of the land soon:

"The South Australian state government said it had received 90 expressions of interest to set up battery storage by December with about 100 megawatts of capacity for one hour...
The state government has not yet set a date for when it will announce the results of the tender. Market leader Samsung SDI's batteries could be used by more than one of the bidders. Some of the others in the running are:

- Tesla Inc. Boss Elon Musk in March offered to install $25 million worth of battery storage within 100 days, and offered it for free if he missed the target.

- South Korea's LG Chem, partner undisclosed

- Zen Energy using batteries from U.S. firm Greensmith

- Privately owned Lyon Group with U.S. power company AES Corp

- Carnegie Clean Energy, Lend Lease Corp with Samsung SDI batteries

- Equis Energy, founded by bankers who worked for Macquarie Group's Korea infrastructure fund. Plans to build two solar power plants in Australia.

- redT Energy, vanadium energy storage machine maker working with an undisclosed partner

- Adelaide-based 1414 Degrees has put forward an alternative proposal for a long term grid scale project and is awaiting feedback, its executive chairman Kevin Moriarty told Reuters."

Factbox: Contenders for South Australia's battery tender

Also GE's new CGTs, that use batteries rather than combusting natural gas to spin the shafts while on stand-by, may also play a role.

"GE has developed a product it calls the LM6000 Hybrid EGT. It includes a 10 MW battery energy storage system, made by GE’s own battery storage offshoot Current, paired with an existing 50 MW gas turbine, also made by GE, and known as an LM6000.

Such a system would allow South Australia to install up to 5 such units to meet its targeted 250 MW, resulting in an extra 50 MW of instant response battery storage spread across the grid, ensuring grid stability, and with 250 MW of emergency capacity in case of a shortfall, or more baseload generators tripping." {The 5 CGTs could be distributed at different locations to relieve local grid congestion.}

S.A. government eyeing world-first gas plus battery storage units

GE and Southern California Edison Debut World’s First Battery-Gas Turbine Hybrid

Can anyone come close to Tesla's offer without a gigafactory-type scale and vertical integration?

Doubtful.

 

[Starno]

So does the climb back to ATH continue on Monday or do we just hang on where we are at or do the shorts drive things lower? Any clairvoyants channeling TSLA? Or is everybody busy today?

Well all indicators are signaling that Tesla should keep rising.
So if there is no bad macro news, or bad Tesla news. Then I guess it should be the case.
The question that comes then, is at what pace will it rise.

 

[brian45011]

Can anyone come close to Tesla's offer without a gigafactory-scale?
Doubtful.

If TE is awarded the South Australia tender, the share price should jump because it validates the GF savings. If another bidder gets the SA project, the market will likely shrug since the big institutions will hold, awaiting more clarity about Tesla's success it executing it M3 plans.

 

[roblab]

There are ~20 people who write more than 80% of the posts here.

There are more than 2,000 people who read and contribute nothing, because most do not have the finance/accounting/economics/investing education/experience.

This is why a team of ~10 shorts can easily influence this stock down with articles that seem detailed and informative, but to a trained eye, are clearly manipulative in one direction. This is the result of the "crowd-sourced" model; just like how fake news affected a whole nation's election.

I have the education/experience to break it down and simplify complex finance/accounting issues. This is how I add value. But unfortunately, I don't have the time to do it for free. If I did, I would.

When you retire, you will.

 

[geneclean55]

The South Australia award should clarify the lay of the land soon:

"The South Australian state government said it had received 90 expressions of interest to set up battery storage by December with about 100 megawatts of capacity for one hour...
The state government has not yet set a date for when it will announce the results of the tender. Market leader Samsung SDI's batteries could be used by more than one of the bidders. Some of the others in the running are:

- Tesla Inc. Boss Elon Musk in March offered to install $25 million worth of battery storage within 100 days, and offered it for free if he missed the target.

- South Korea's LG Chem, partner undisclosed

- Zen Energy using batteries from U.S. firm Greensmith

- Privately owned Lyon Group with U.S. power company AES Corp

- Carnegie Clean Energy, Lend Lease Corp with Samsung SDI batteries

- Equis Energy, founded by bankers who worked for Macquarie Group's Korea infrastructure fund. Plans to build two solar power plants in Australia.

- redT Energy, vanadium energy storage machine maker working with an undisclosed partner

- Adelaide-based 1414 Degrees has put forward an alternative proposal for a long term grid scale project and is awaiting feedback, its executive chairman Kevin Moriarty told Reuters."

Factbox: Contenders for South Australia's battery tender

Also GE's new CGTs, that use batteries rather than combusting natural gas to spin the shafts while on stand-by, may also play a role.

"GE has developed a product it calls the LM6000 Hybrid EGT. It includes a 10 MW battery energy storage system, made by GE’s own battery storage offshoot Current, paired with an existing 50 MW gas turbine, also made by GE, and known as an LM6000.

Such a system would allow South Australia to install up to 5 such units to meet its targeted 250 MW, resulting in an extra 50 MW of instant response battery storage spread across the grid, ensuring grid stability, and with 250 MW of emergency capacity in case of a shortfall, or more baseload generators tripping." {The 5 CGTs could be distributed at different locations to relieve local grid congestion.}

S.A. government eyeing world-first gas plus battery storage units

GE and Southern California Edison Debut World’s First Battery-Gas Turbine Hybrid

This needs to be unpacked a little.
Neither AES or Greensmith produce their own batteries as far as I can tell.
When you get right down to it, this list could basically boil down to Samsung, LG Chem or Tesla.

Also the gas peaker/GE battery combo is a completely different tender/project.

 

[D-egg-O]

There are ~20 people who write more than 80% of the posts here.

There are more than 2,000 people who read and contribute nothing, because most do not have the finance/accounting/economics/investing education/experience.

This is why a team of ~10 shorts can easily influence this stock down with articles that seem detailed and informative, but to a trained eye, are clearly manipulative in one direction. This is the result of the "crowd-sourced" model; just like how fake news affected a whole nation's election.

I have the education/experience to break it down and simplify complex finance/accounting issues. This is how I add value. But unfortunately, I don't have the time to do it for free. If I did, I would.

Again, haven't been on here very long but it doesn't take much to figure out who's trolling. People just need to make the little extra effort to critically think about what others write.

Same goes for when you make your plugs for your subscription service. You add value with your posts, but it's also clear to me when you're trying to sell your subscription. It's amusing when you get called out on it, and then watch you try to defend it. Not dogging on you. Just honest feedback.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Again, haven't been on here very long but it doesn't take much to figure out who's trolling. People just need to make the little extra effort to critically think about what others write.

Same goes for when you make your plugs for your subscription service. You add value with your posts, but it's also clear to me when you're trying to sell your subscription. It's amusing when you get called out on it, and then watch you try to defend it. Not dogging on you. Just honest feedback.

Can we all at least agree that great research takes a basic level of education/experience and a lot of time?

 

[madodel]

Well all indicators are signaling that Tesla should keep rising.
So if there is no bad macro news, or bad Tesla news. Then I guess it should be the case.
The question that comes then, is at what pace will it rise.

Well supposedly the French vote going for the sane, rational guy is good for the markets, at least that is what they are saying on TV. So hopefully at least macros are good for a while. I'd take a nice slow rise any day, but after a couple of decades of watching AAPL and 4 or 5 years of watching TSLA I guess fat chance of that.

 

[DragonWatch]

If I were to have feared percentages, or my special education teacher back in roughly 1967; I would not be here today as a Fanboy of Tesla. Thank my God, not yours, my wife did not meet me in high school or college ~ she probably would have run the other way. Well she did meet me while I was in college; we met backpacking in the Mammoth Lakes region. The only percentage I like is my promotion to Major. I was in the bottom of my military courses/class, and yet went from 1,200 new butter bars to only 300 selected to Major. The only reason I did not pursue Lieutenant Colonel (LTC) was I had enough years to retire, due to 3 years enlisted, our son was in trouble and I promised my wife my 100% support on her own career.
I have stated before why I believe in Tesla, and of course Elon, but then those are not percentages ~ just successful fact stories. Also I look at things tactically and know that the fossil fuel industry has successfully eaten alternative fuel sources alive twice in the past. If Tesla goes down, so do my granddaughter and son, and your families too.
As a reader of anything, to include your bible, seek the truth and breath light into your soul. Anything else is just smog
Oh, and I have never driven a better car than I have with the MX; that is when my wife allows me to drive her (our) car
And, I have fired missiles, rockets, cannons, which all take a solid understanding of math, and belief/understanding in science. I hope you enjoy your freedom and country (but that is another story). My generation of soldiers were called baby killers
What's in your percentages?

 

[AlMc]

If I were to have feared percentages, or my special education teacher back in roughly 1967; I would not be here today as a Fanboy of Tesla. Thank my God, not yours, my wife did not meet me in high school or college ~ she probably would have run the other way. Well she did meet me while I was in college; we met backpacking in the Mammoth Lakes region. The only percentage I like is my promotion to Major. I was in the bottom of my military courses/class, and yet went from 1,200 new butter bars to only 300 selected to Major. The only reason I did not pursue Lieutenant Colonel (LTC) was I had enough years to retire, due to 3 years enlisted, our son was in trouble and I promised my wife my 100% support on her own career.
I have stated before why I believe in Tesla, and of course Elon, but then those are not percentages ~ just successful fact stories. Also I look at things tactically and know that the fossil fuel industry has successfully eaten alternative fuel sources alive twice in the past. If Tesla goes down, so do my granddaughter and son, and your families too.
As a reader of anything, to include your bible, seek the truth and breath light into your soul. Anything else is just smog
Oh, and I have never driven a better car than I have with the MX; that is when my wife allows me to drive her (our) car
And, I have fired missiles, rockets, cannons, which all take a solid understanding of math, and belief/understanding in science. I hope you enjoy your freedom and country (but that is another story). My generation of soldiers were called baby killers
What's in your percentages?

Did I miss something? What is this in response to Major?

 

[DaveT]

Can we all at least agree that great research takes a basic level of education/experience and a lot of time?

Can we all agree this thread is not a good place to promote your paid service or your click bait articles?

Create your own thread and post your "analysis" and click bait over there.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The ignore function is a gift from all-electric heavens.

 

[The Blue Owl]

But unfortunately, I don't have the time to do it for free.

Then don't.

 

[JBRR]

The ignore function is a gift from all-electric heavens.

Your response to negative feedback is telling people who disagree to ignore you?

 

[DragonWatch]

Did I miss something? What is this in response to Major?

Good question ~ I was trying not to call anyone in particular out, but get a real laugh watching the splitting of hairs and bias of data here in Tesla la la land. While I am not impressed with the solicitation of business on these threads, I am also not a fan of blocking someone just because they have a particular perspective either. At the same time if someone wants to rant at me for what I have said, they need to have the testicles to withstand my return story (not you AIMc).
When it comes to data, in today's world there is information overload. Like it or not our mathematical and scientific data is bias regardless of the side of the road you are on. Take sugar and the impact on your body; skewed data or a lie for years.
As computers came on board in the artillery we were swamped with targets of opportunity. Narrowing the data down, it became biased based on who sent in the data, and thus skewed the results.
Anyone reading the data presented here or anywhere has to sift through and find that which answers the question or presents an answer.
Humans can rationalize anything they want, anything.
I cannot tell you as ironclad fact that Elon is running Tesla successfully; all I have is the facts that he is like the Energiser Bunny ~ he keeps on ticking. I follow the threads of his/Tesla's actions (for me actions speak volumes to truth) ~ Model S fires (within short order resolved and almost nothing since); Seatbelt issue (got ahead of the problem quickly); and the list goes on; but Tesla keeps plowing through the negative looking for the positive.
There was significant fear over the merge of Tesla and Solarcity; justifiably so in a lot of ways, but I hung on hoping, and still am that it will prove to be the right call. If I had relied on the numbers, I would have been gone. Same can be said about the stock prices touted at $300 back in 2013/early 2014. But I plowed through the fear of the all the negative press and look at where we are today
$400 anyone? Okay, do not get ahead of yourself.

 

[TrendTrader007]

T

Can we all agree this thread is not a good place to promote your paid service or your click bait articles?

Create your own thread and post your "analysis" and click bait over there.[/QU

Totally agree. This is not the place to promote any subscription services. I resent having to deal with any kind of promoters on this thread
Moreover if someone is so good in their 'analysis/ research' or a total wizard in the markets they won't have to come promoting their services on this thread. They would make more than enough money investing/ trading the markets without having to tell the world how good their research is
As Sheldon Adelson said: if you're so smart how come you're not so rich

 

[Ameliorate]

Can we all at least agree that great research takes a basic level of education/experience and a lot of time?

Absolutely it does. I suspect many here have already made their millions and proven their success in the markets.

I suppose in the grand scheme of things it's always boiled down to, do you believe Elon or not?
Providing research as to how he gets to a 700bn market cap in 2025 is great, especially if you're skeptical of Elon. As one should be until it's known what he's capable of.

I would pay a lot to anybody who could with a high degree of accuracy predict the short term, alas you don't claim to do such things.

Some days it doesn't pay to know all that we do about Tesla, when the average investor or algo bots trade on entirely different stories or assumptions. ie I have a really hard time selling at peaks because my current price target is higher than what the market perceives Tesla is worth. (See vehicle production estimated from now through 2020, TE @ 0 etc etc. )

I'm already part of the cult , doesn't matter much to me how fast we get to 700B. I'm okay with a 10-20% miss as wouldn't be uncommon with Elon. Just that the trend is up, that the company is moving forward and mission statement is intact. Gotta keep a close eye on the investor threads to make sure developments are still headed in the right direction! Your research certainly does seem to speak to the viability of their business model which is great for my confirmation bias .

The hard part sometimes is tempering expectations to that of the market.