I think that the probability Elon's market cap projection is also dependent on the number and speed of competitive entry. At this point we still see only limited competition (LG, BYD) in battery production and only one serious EV competitor (BYD in China). The Volt, Leaf and i3 are basically compliance cars with GM, Nissan and BMW failing to commit to follow-on vehicles.
For some reason many of the investor types fail to see that EV batteries are not available at the scale needed for significant market share and that the announced production investment is also minimal compared to global auto production.
China's push into EVs will change this equation. Potentially Korean commitment as well. But both are probably 5+ years to see any real impact to Tesla's US or EU markets.
What is the big unknown (to us, maybe not Tesla) is how much auto production can be improved via clean sheet design combined with a robotic factory optimized for production. This is why I find Elon's comments about "the product is the factory," "we want to be the best manufacturers in the world," "alien dreadnought" and that the recent announcement of the Y being on a new platform are so so fascinating. Plus whatever Elon meant about how the factory software will be impossible for the competitors to copy.
These may lead to huge advantages in margin, which will mean more cash flow for investment into new products and factories at scale that others are unable to keep up with.
Much of this will become apparent with the launch of the Model Y. Next 24 months are going to be very interesting.
