2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[D-egg-O]

Lol BTW I love the way this guy disagrees with all my posts. Free entertainment for me and everyone else on this thread. This world would be a very dull place indeed if there were not any naysayers and TSLA stock would not be shooting to Mars if there were no shorts

What I find even more hilarious is you're both bullish TSLA.

 

[elasalle]

While every one says Short Squeeze is imminent, is any one giving any thought to how to protect one self from downturn? Anyone buying puts as insurance?
(I still remember the high expectations for Model X launch on like Oct 28th 2015 .. - this time based on everything that has been said it should be different, but shouldn't we Longs be prepared for that as well?) - advice anyone?

 

[esk8mw]

Shorts: "OK OK you can have 320. But we won't allow an ATH close! Take that!"

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I expect oil prices to start moving up from here. Feel free to follow ValueAnalyst1 on twitter for more on this.

Although Tesla would do well even in low oil price environment, higher oil prices are bullish for TSLA and may ignite the short squeeze.

Regardless, I am sticking with stock only with a conservative amount of margin.

 

[geneclean55]

Shorts are desperate to get a close under 320. Then they can wave a tiny victory flag. Let's see who wins.

Not a chance.
Relentless buying pressure

 

[ValueAnalyst]

While every one says Short Squeeze is imminent, is any one giving any thought to how to protect one self from downturn? Anyone buying puts as insurance?
(I still remember the high expectations for Model X launch on like Oct 28th 2015 .. - this time based on everything that has been said it should be different, but shouldn't we Longs be prepared for that as well?) - advice anyone?

If you're concerned about that, may be less costly to lighten your position rather than buying put options.

I'm not a tax expert, but hedging does not really allow you to avoid short-term gain tax treatment either as far as I know, but maybe someone more knowledgeable can chime in.

I personally am not concerned about a stock price downturn or a recession at this time, especially since I only own stock and I can weather a downturn easily. Recession maybe in 2018 though.

 

[geneclean55]

Scary looking daily candle for the shorts to contemplate overnight

 

[brian45011]

Someone earlier today posted the video of a presentation in which the presenter at the end says Apple's supplier has 100+ engineers working on similar research. "It's a race" he says.

The presenter was Dahn. It was PhDs not just engineers. It was "like 300" which of course is "100+. The company was ATL in China.
At about 1:06 of

Dahn's candor (ie. his expertise is in NMC and he is now researching NCA for Tesla) and discretion (no commercial unauthorized disclosures) are refreshing.

 

[D-egg-O]

While every one says Short Squeeze is imminent, is any one giving any thought to how to protect one self from downturn? Anyone buying puts as insurance?
(I still remember the high expectations for Model X launch on like Oct 28th 2015 .. - this time based on everything that has been said it should be different, but shouldn't we Longs be prepared for that as well?) - advice anyone?

I've done this the last two ER. I let the puts execute after the 2016 Q4 ER. Sold between 270-280. I got lucky the following Monday when SP hit low 240s and bought back in. 2017 Q1 ER I also bought puts as "insurance." I sold them the day after. I didn't expect the price to drop like it did, so I didn't expect it to last. Probably lucky again. I treat these puts as insurance only, so I don't expect a return. I fund these put purchases by selling covered calls and rolling them every week if they are in the money. I learned how to roll them over from folks here. Prior to that, I was letting them exercise and then buying back in (not the best strategy). Gains from short term option trades have gone into buying more stock and OTM 2016 LEAPs.

 

[MitchJi]

The presenter was Dahn. It was PhDs not just engineers. It was "like 300" which of course is "100+. The company was ATL in China.
At about 1:06 of

Dahn's candor (ie. his expertise is in NMC and he is now researching NCA for Tesla) and discretion (no commercial unauthorized disclosures) are refreshing.

No, his expertise is degradation of lithium ion battery cells.

 

[madodel]

I'm hearing reports of a major outbreak of palihapititis over in Shortville. Prayers and well wishes to all those affected.

You know there is a vaccine for that? Hold long!

 

[Tslynk67]

Wait for a(nother) dip, and buy a LEAP to replace those shares. Wait for it to go up, sell, bam - trading shares!

I just did that in a retirement account actually. Wanted to write a weekly call, but only had 95 shares in the account, so I replaced the shares with a couple LEAPS after ER, and would have enough now, if I could get myself to sell those LEAPs...

I've only been in this game for 14 months, or so (however I was at least smart enough to buy the majority of my position in the big dip last February), so without Googling, I don't even know what a LEAP is Right now I'm buy & hold, buy and hold - which is neither a bad strategy, methinks

 

[MitchJi]

While every one says Short Squeeze is imminent, is any one giving any thought to how to protect one self from downturn? Anyone buying puts as insurance?

(I still remember the high expectations for Model X launch on like Oct 28th 2015 .. - this time based on everything that has been said it should be different, but shouldn't we Longs be prepared for that as well?) - advice anyone?

I believe that the absolute worst case is a three month delay, which if you are holding shares or 2019 leaps at a strike price under about $350 are very safe.

It's all about timing and right now unless we have a macro problem, like trump starting a war with North Korea (which unfortunately is not something we can rule out ) I believe it makes more sense if you are holding shares, to add some J2019 leaps to maximize your upside.

 

[elasalle]

I've done this the last two ER. I let the puts execute after the 2016 Q4 ER. Sold between 270-280. I got lucky the following Monday when SP hit low 240s and bought back in. 2017 Q1 ER I also bought puts as "insurance." I sold them the day after. I didn't expect the price to drop like it did, so I didn't expect it to last. Probably lucky again. I treat these puts as insurance only, so I don't expect a return. I fund these put purchases by selling covered calls and rolling them every week if they are in the money. I learned how to roll them over from folks here. Prior to that, I was letting them exercise and then buying back in (not the best strategy). Gains from short term option trades have gone into buying more stock and OTM 2016 LEAPs.

Thanks this is kinda the strategy I too want to employ.

 

[AlMc]

Short interest out for TSLA as of 4/28/17:
........................ Amount.............................. Average Daily Share traded....................Days to cover
4/28/2017............31,462,981.......................4,623,102.....................................6.805600

 

[moe.salih]

Latest short interest numbers are out. Holding steady at ~31M shares.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

 

[brian45011]

No, his expertise is degradation of lithium ion battery cells.

Maybe start listening carefully at 58:20? He is learning the "intricacies and weirdness of NCA."

 

[Richgoogol]

Something irrelevant to this post. Anyone here owns Solaredge (SEDG) shares? They are in the solar inverter, power optimizing and tracking business, higher margins than the actual solar panel producers such as First Solar. They collaborate with Tesla solar businesses. I find it a gem with huge potential. Want to here what the pros here think of it?

 

[ZenMan]

Latest short interest numbers are out. Holding steady at ~31M shares.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

Stock price as of close 4/28/2017 was $314.07

 

[MitchJi]

Maybe start listening carefully at 58:20? He is learning the "intricacies and weirdness of NCA."

So that he can try to figure out how to increase their lifespan, or increase their lifespan while increasing the voltage.