2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

Technicals
Technicals
Technicals
That along with background fundamentals will determine my exit strategy and then buy back
I will know when to sell and when to buy back
That time is not here
Not even close
I totally believe in market timing. It's not all that hard as it's made out to be by most investors....but it needs to be done very sparingly
There is no set price that I have in mind
I go with the flow of the markets and determine my strategy in a fluid situation

 

[sahanim]

decided to dabble in some day-trading today.

not a bad day so far:

there's levels to it you and i know

 

[Richgoogol]

You're jynxed it!

I realize that now....Doh!!!

 

[MitchJi]

Hurting a little bit?
Bet it would hurt a lot, mostly from flogging myself.

If we sell our current leaps at an SP of $600 we'll be up by more than $1.8 million, so in the big picture I'll actually be pretty happy.

 

[MitchJi]

Technicals
Technicals
Technicals
That along with background fundamentals will determine my exit strategy and then buy back
I will know when to sell and when to buy back
That time is not here
Not even close
I totally believe in market timing. It's not all that hard as it's made out to be by most investors....but it needs to be done very sparingly
There is no set price that I have in mind
I go with the flow of the markets and determine my strategy in a fluid situation

Please let us know if you think it's time to do that (unload due to the effect of a squeeze)! Of course I intend to consider your information to make my own decision.

I hope that @jesselivenomore will let us know if he has a similar opinion! If he and you agree that would be a strong impetus.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Yesterday's high-profile recommendation of the convertible debt, combined with the increasing market value of equity, as well as the exponentially increasing revenues and gross profits, are all very positive for Tesla's ability to raise non-dilutive debt at favorable rates to finance additional Gigafactories.

Fundamentals are moving in the right direction and the SP has yet to catch up.

 

[luvb2b]

Can you, or anyone else please tell us how to avoid that problem when buying or selling options? The best way would clearly be a list of brokers who don't do that. If either most or all brokers are corrupt it would also be useful if there's a strategy to defeat that problem.

at a lot of retail firms there is no way to avoid this when you do limit orders with options. the brokers are paid really well for order flow. even vanguard which takes no payment for equity flow gets payment for order flow for handing options orders to the wall street leeches.

at some firms your best bet is waiting until the stock is where you want it and then (if buying a call for example) sending a market order or limit order at the ask or higher with small size - typically less than 100 contracts but sometimes <=50 or <=20.

the reason this works is that some firms have deals with market makers for price improvements, and other firms send orders thru various exchange auction mechanisms designed for smaller size orders. this allows for at least a competitive "bidding" for your order - in real time. the fill often comes back somewhere between the bid/ask and for me often better than i could do on my own with a limit order. the main problem with this strategy is it usually only works for 1, maybe 2 small orders. so beyond that you've got to find other ways to deal with the front running slippage. you'll get filled instantly and then the rest is the problem of the guy hedging your order. you will also know quantifiably that your execution slippage was at most about half the bid-ask spread. when placing limit orders that are "cheated" away from being filled, the costs can be enormous and not readily quantified.

@MitchJi's anecdote about how bad it was before is true. but just because you got massively ripped off before doesn't mean it's good to be moderately ripped off today. it's only when individual investors revolt against the brokers who are selling them out will we as a whole get much better execution.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Sounds like most people here have the right idea of NOT trying to time the market.

Why would would anyone risk losing out on 5-10x upside to make another 5-10% with the impossible perfect execution is beyond me...

 

[Papafox]

$10B / $320 = 31.25 million shares sold short

 

[Jayjs20]

Sounds like most people here have the right idea of NOT trying to time the market.

Why would would anyone risk losing out on 5-10x upside to make another 5-10% with the impossible perfect execution is beyond me...

I know when I did it, it was because I thought it was just so easy and -obvious-.

I mean, just sell high buy low, what could go wrong? What could go wrong.

 

[Tslynk67]

It really depends, and it's very difficult to know ahead of time, if at all possible.

See TSLA short squeeze in 2013. That squeeze was supported by fundamentals, but it was still extremely volatile. The stock at one point in October went down by 50% in just a few weeks, which would've wiped you out if you were even 150-160% on margin (i.e. long squeeze), and frequent 10-20% intraday swings.

Then see SDRL short squeeze in 2016. People thought that was somewhat supported by fundamentals, as oil price rebounded, but SDRL is now at the brink of bankruptcy.

So be careful. Don't get greedy. I'm sticking with the stock (vs. options) with a conservative amount of margin, which I will decrease as the price approaches intrinsic value of the company.

Well I'm terrified of selling, TBH, as the SP could just keep going. Right now I'm close to 2x my investment, so it's very good and I have a GTC sell on $2349, just in case there's a massive squeeze.

What I'm thinking to do it to leave my main position as a core and use my other account, which currently just has 8 shares, and use this to dick about a bit. Need to load it a bit more, I think 100 shares is the minimum to make trading profitable given the charges.

Pfff, the agony go choice...

 

[TrendTrader007]

Please let us know if you think it's time to do that (unload due to the effect of a squeeze)! Of course I intend to consider your information to make my own decision.

I hope that @jesselivenomore will let us know if he has a similar opinion! If he and you agree that would be a strong impetus.

Sure. Will do. Thx!

PS: my strategy is not to sell my stock when there is a less than 20 to 30% pullback imminent
I only sell when I expect a substantial pullback in the order of 30 to 40% or more
Otherwise it's not worth my while from a capital gains perspective
I'll explain it in more detail later this evening

 

[Mike Smith]

I'm hearing reports of a major outbreak of palihapititis over in Shortville. Prayers and well wishes to all those affected.

 

[zdriver]

What I'm thinking to do it to leave my main position as a core and use my other account, which currently just has 8 shares, and use this to dick about a bit. Need to load it a bit more, I think 100 shares is the minimum to make trading profitable given the charges.

Wait for a(nother) dip, and buy a LEAP to replace those shares. Wait for it to go up, sell, bam - trading shares!

I just did that in a retirement account actually. Wanted to write a weekly call, but only had 95 shares in the account, so I replaced the shares with a couple LEAPS after ER, and would have enough now, if I could get myself to sell those LEAPs...

 

[TrendTrader007]

Lol BTW I love the way this guy disagrees with all my posts. Free entertainment for me and everyone else on this thread. This world would be a very dull place indeed if there were not any naysayers and TSLA stock would not be shooting to Mars if there were no shorts

 

[Curt Renz]

Well I'm terrified of selling, TBH, as the SP could just keep going. Right now I'm close to 2x my investment, so it's very good and I have a GTC sell on $2349, just in case there's a massive squeeze...

Thanks, that reminded me to raise the GTC limit on my TSLA sell price. I try to keep it somwhat under 50% above the current price. It's to prevent my broker from lending my shares to short sellers. If other shareholders do the same, that could enhance an eventual surge due to a short squeeze.

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 226221

$10B / $320 = 31.25 million shares sold short

It's just getting cloudy over Shortville. Not even started raining yet.. wait till the storm hits
It'll be fun

 

[esk8mw]

Shorts are desperate to get a close under 320. Then they can wave a tiny victory flag. Let's see who wins.

 

[MitchJi]

Thanks, that reminded me to raise the GTC limit on my TSLA sell price. I try to keep it somwhat under 50% above the current price. It's to prevent my broker from lending my shares to short sellers. If all other shareholders do the same, that could enhance an eventual surge due to a short squeeze.

Isn't only 50% higher than the current price a little risky? Only partially kidding.

Maybe you could make it a trailing stop?

 

[TrendTrader007]

Shorts are desperate to get a close under 320. Then they can wave a tiny victory flag. Let's see who wins.

What happens today is inconsequential. In the long run shorts are totally and irreversibly screwed. Period.
The short squeeze that will happen over the next several months will be epic and textbook material for future generations of short sellers