2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MitchJi]

Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of Tesla to equal-weight from overweight, but kept its price target of 305.

Among several factors, Morgan Stanley noted the risk of Tesla having to compete with Apple (AAPL), which is rumored to be working on a self-driving electric car.

Tesla stock was down 2%, near 318, in premarket trading on the stock market today. The stock hit an all-time high of 327.66 on May 2. It broke out of a cup base with a buy point of 287.49 on April 3.

We need MS-MX to start using @TrendTrader007's analysis.

 

[Rockster]

My dad's asphalt roof is 22 years old. Without any maintenance or repairs.

Your dad is lucky. Around north Texas, you can be sure that hail damage will necessitate a new asphalt roof every 7 or 8 years. (Shingle warranties are void by hail damage.) That replacement process, costs a homeowner the deductible each time (typically 1% the value of the home). This 25-year roof would therefore cost three or four deductibles during its 25 year lifespan.

Asphalt roofs are still pretty inexpensive around here, as is electricity, so this probably doesn't make the Tesla solar tiles cost competitive as compared to north Texas asphalt but it probably still has a place on higher end homes that have slate or tile and would like more durability, plus the benefit of electricity generation.

 

[myusername]

Already $3 higher than the low today... buying opportunity evaporating fast!!!

so you announce it instead of buying?... why?... why do you want other people to know that *their* buying opportunity is "evaporating"?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

He is sticking to his low-ball forecast. He just acknowledged that the gap is widening with other analysts. Therefore he must downgrade, because the street has gotten too optimistic in his view. A weird kind of logic, I agree.

This is how he again stands by his Model 3 forecast in the note:

We continue to forecast 2k Model 3 deliveries by year-end with 90k sold next year. We do not expect Tesla to pass the 500k mark in Model 3 deliveries before 2024. Roughly 25% of our price target is based on our valuation of a shared, automated transport service we expect the company to unveil shortly with what we estimate would be a fleet of 5,000 cars by the end of 2018, growing to over 100k units by 2022, more than 1 million units by 2027 and nearly 1.9 million units by 2030 at which point we expect Tesla to be executing nearly 120 billion miles per year or a 70bps share of the global miles market.

The way I take his position: "Even with our insanely conservative assumptions, the stock is worth more than $300 per share."

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Any update on shares available for shorting?
Thanks in advance!

 

[Starno]

Guys just keep buying TSLA as much as you can afford without caring about prices swing.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Guys just keep buying TSLA as much as you can afford without caring about prices swing.

Please be careful telling other people what to do without knowing their specific return expectations, risk tolerances, and liquidity needs. I share what I do with my portfolio instead.

I added some shares over the last hour, and expect to add more if the stock drops below $310.

 

[CyberDutchie]

The way I take his position: "Even with our insanely conservative assumptions, the stock is worth more than $300 per share."

Haha, that's one way to look at it. Adam will have to confront reality when actual numbers of cars rolling out of the factory will be significantly higher, and he will have no choice but to upgrade with a much higher price target.

 

[LoveTSLA]

Please be careful telling other people what to do without knowing their specific return expectations, risk tolerances, and liquidity needs. I share what I do with my portfolio instead.

I added some shares over the last hour, and expect to add more if the stock drops below $310.

As I said before, I will said it one more time. If you are TSLA long time invester and see TSLA's future, try not play with the market, earnings or some analysts opinions, or do panic sell, you will never win,,,

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Haha, that's one way to look at it. Adam will have to confront reality when actual numbers of cars rolling out of the factory will be significantly higher, and he will have no choice but to upgrade with a much higher price target.

I wasn't trying to make you laugh. I sincerely think he's trying to make a point to the market. I couldn't find the specific interview just now, but I remember him saying something along the lines of "even with our conservative projection..."

FWIW, Adam Jonas was one of the early analysts to predict Tesla getting into mobility-as-a-service to rival Uber, when everyone was predicting Tesla would sell cars to Uber. See this: Listen To Elon Musk’s Awkward Silence After A Question About Tesla’s Self-Driving Fleet

 

[ValueAnalyst]

As I said before, I will said it one more time. If you are TSLA long time invester and see TSLA's future, try not play with the market, earnings or some analysts opinions, or do panic sell, you will never win,,,

I agree. That's why 90% of my position in TSLA is long-term in nature, but I adjust around the edges to take advantage of unjustified drops like the one after the earnings release and today, using conservative amount of margin.

 

[madodel]

Haha, that's one way to look at it. Adam will have to confront reality when actual numbers of cars rolling out of the factory will be significantly higher, and he will have no choice but to upgrade with a much higher price target.

But there never seems to be any repercussions for these analysts being so bad at their jobs. This analysis is so bad, but in 6 months most will have forgotten how horribly wrong he is. Just pretend the past never happened.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'm actually pretty happy with the market reaction to the MS downgrade, considering at the end of April anything over $315 would have been ATH. And now after Q1 ER with weak financial #'s, we're instead looking at $315-318 as a buying opportunity. As a buy and hold long, I do wonder if Jonas is partially right and PPS expectations are too high. As much as I would love to see $350, $400, I'd be perfectly fine with hitting them in late 2017, or in 2018.

 

[Starno]

319

 

[Drax7]

Once we negate Jonas views, thats when this price gap down is offset, then his view is no longer and issue
. Along a trend , negating bad price action is a positive, and generally a good add
on point.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

BOOM!

Judge blocks top Uber engineer from working on key self-driving technology amid battle with Alphabet

 

[Starno]

I'm actually pretty happy with the market reaction to the MS downgrade, considering at the end of April anything over $315 would have been ATH. And now after Q1 ER with weak financial #'s, we're instead looking at $315-318 as a buying opportunity. As a buy and hold long, I do wonder if Jonas is partially right and PPS expectations are too high. As much as I would love to see $350, $400, I'd be perfectly fine with hitting them in late 2017, or in 2018.

The stock needs to take 250- 300 dollars a year to be over 1000 in 2020 though

 

[geneclean55]

Hmm, anyone think we might close around Fridays close....

 

[T3slaTulips]

I wonder if some shorts are finally taking today's opportunity to unwind? As we've watched the climb back up after the Q1 earnings miss it seems that capitulation would be their wisest course.
Or... (and I consider the causal relation dubious at best)
You should all pitch in and send me away for another week and a half vacation away from the internet to the base of the Grand Canyon. The price action has seen a nice steady climb while I was away.
[ My climb required considerably more effort ]

 

[Sudre]

The downgrade was excellent. I was waiting for something to happen so I could pick up more shares for my shorter term plays. I simply don't see it ever going low enough to make me worry about my long term shares.

As far as my square footage. Why bother. Your house is different. Go to Tesla's site and put your address in and set the solar slider all the way to no solar and see the price for yourself. At $11 a square foot in my area for a life time, it is a no brainer. When I need a roof I will be getting it even if I just throw my traditional solar back on it.