2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[ValueAnalyst]

A massive upgrade from a bear Wall Street analyst may ignite a short squeeze.

I wouldn't be surprised if this upgrade came from Goldman within the next few weeks. It may say something like "the execution risk around Model 3 has decreased" in order to justify their previous bearish stance. It may even come with an analyst change.

To be continued... Again, it would be better for longs if the short squeeze comes later in the year. I would love a slow and steady rise throughout the rest of the year up to $400-450 range, while Tesla cranks out 50,000+ Model 3's in 2017, with a clear path to 500,000 total cars in 2018, and location announcements for the additional four Gigafactories.

 

[1kEE]

Interesting premarket behavior:


(Pre-market is yellow, yesterday's after hours is grey)

31k volume and nothing above 316.00

Some big player have a sell order at 316.00 ? That's kinda unusual to use a round number like that....

 

[1kEE]

Update.... volume 33k now and its above 316.00, that huge sell order must be filled!



(Ignore the spike at beginning of premarket, that maybe an anomalie or a real transaction)

 

[Willuknight]

Most of the people who seem to be making a career out of trashing Tesla and Elon are clearly not good at heart. They seem to want Tesla to fail at any cost, even to the detriment of the human race. I give them no benefit of doubt, since their own actions have exposed their true nature.

That's not entirely fair, I think you're giving them too much credit in assuming they're capable of understanding that we can't live off oil and pollution for infinity. It's not that they don't care about the human race, it's that they're too stupid/close minded to alter their position.

 

[Willuknight]

I just picked up another 26 shares today. Been watching it like a hawk since the last week, was going to buy at 305 but wanted to make sure it was going up and missed buying at 310. Oh well, where we're going, $10 won't matter.

I remain utterly convinced of the value proposition of Tesla and I've done a **** ton of research.

 

[1kEE]

And up past 317 now.... That 316.00 is a thing of the past!

 

[TrendTrader007]

I hope so! Those have almost no time value. What are you planning on? ~$400 by Jan 2018 looks feasible.

The $480 strikes for about $16 looks better (safer) to me.

I wish I'd had more than $30k in November (SP ~ $180) when I got 15 J19 $240's for about $19.50 each.

View attachment 228447

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I've got all manners of calls spread across the spectrum 2018 and 2019
Many of them already doubled tripled quadrupled and more if TSLA continues its prodigal ways then soon my call portfolio will exceed a million. As far as when to sell it's too soon to know
Hold on for the super exciting ride of a lifetime

 

[TrendTrader007]

Hello bears! How ya all doing
Have a great long weekend

 

[Rammstein]

Hello bears! How ya all doing
Have a great long weekend

Their drink for the weekend!

 

[geneclean55]

ATH today?

 

[Reciprocity]

ATH today?

50/50 chance. I wouldnt bet against it.

 

[Starno]

ATH I give 25% chances.

ATH close however, 70% chances.

 

[callnaveen]

Tesla Inc (TSLA) Stock Can Cross $500 on Achieving Model 3 Production Goal

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Possible ignitions for a short squeeze:

1. Gigafactory 3/4/5/6 full build-out guidance: timeline (by 2020/21) or cost (less than $5 billion) or capacity (more than 1.5m/yr each)
2. Max capacity revisions to Gigafactory 1 or 2 to 1.5m+ cars/yr and 2GW, respectively, by 2020. Why else acquire Grohmann?
3. 100k+ Solar Roof reservations "in just two weeks"
4. Guidance for Tesla Semi ramp-up by the end of 2018 and gross margin 20%+ soon thereafter
5. Model 3 EBIT margin guidance of 5%+ at $42,000-45,000 ASP at 10,000 units/w
6. Model 3 "final reveal" event in July pushing Model 3 reservations to 1m+ in 3Q17
7. Model 3 ramp-up to 5,000/w in 4Q17
8. Combined Model S/X gross margin (incl. autopilot) exceeding 30% by 4Q17
9. Brent oil prices surging above $70 by 4Q17
10. Chanos throwing in the towel

and many more...

 

[DurandalAI]

That's not entirely fair, I think you're giving them too much credit in assuming they're capable of understanding that we can't live off oil and pollution for infinity. It's not that they don't care about the human race, it's that they're too stupid/close minded to alter their position.

Willful ignorance due to confirmation bias. I try not to be, but even I'm guilty of it. Some people are more open to a paradigm shift, while others simply recede further into their cave when presented with evidence that's contrary to their current world-view. For those types a slow steering correction is required as opposed to a full and immediate 180 degree turn. It's easy (and counter intuitive) to imply that one particular ideology is prone to this, but I see it readily on both sides of the aisle, where leftists, rightist, and even centrists refuse to accept anything outside of the dogma that they've been taught. Years ago I may have attempted to persuade such individuals to a more open-minded position, but I no longer attempt that as it's a waste of time as a whole. You can merely state your opinion of what's going on, and eventually if they see further proof, they'll remember what you had said, and next time they may take what you say with greater importance.

 

[geneclean55]

I will take a 325 pin

 

[Starno]

The dip episode is finally closed guys. Now let's look ahead and shoot for the stars.

Hopefully.

 

[Reciprocity]

100k+ Solar Roof reservations "in just two weeks"

I know we have argued back and forth on this and I am pretty sure I am mostly over estimating this, but, I cant for the life of me get beyond this idea that Solar Roof is absolutely huge compared to solar panels. I cant get over the fact the the solar roof ASP could be over $50k and the margins could be higher then solar as well due to the simplicity of the tiles themselves. The fact that they have to make billions of them actually helps justify getting Grohmann involved and leveraging custom machinery for making the tiles. Glass being cheap and easy to work with and all.

Based on that, I cant find a single residential solar company that has anywhere near a $1B revenues. Solar city was the only one that I could find. How is it not bigger news that even at 20,000 roofs in 2018, Tesla could have a $1B business from thin air that has potential, if you believe the recent Seeking Alpha article, which I usually dont, of nearly $50B a year in revs by 2024. I think that is a bit high, but I could see them getting 10% of that 5 million new roofs a year and an equal amount of tradition solar installs at 1/3 the ASP. They are also going to sell a crap load of batteries with those panels, which ratchets up the ASP as well and the GM should be north of 20% and probably north of 25% if they can really automate the solar tile manufacturing and improve the installation process. I think there will some focus on how these things are installed, because roofing is a very manual process. Tile roofs are already much harder to put down then asphalt and you will probably need special blades to even cut these tiles, to the point they may need their own installers.

I know $50B doesnt put a dent into the auto industry, I think it would be an epic amount for the solar industry. Longer term, solar roofs might be the only solar because as the cells get more efficient and as the tiles get cheaper to make, and even new formats that are much cheaper, no one will want panels when they need a new roof. I am thinking more like 2025 and beyond as the glut of solar panels start to age and costs come down on solar tiles.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I know we have argued back and forth on this and I am pretty sure I am mostly over estimating this, but, I cant for the life of me get beyond this idea that Solar Roof is absolutely huge compared to solar panels. I cant get over the fact the the solar roof ASP could be over $50k and the margins could be higher then solar as well due to the simplicity of the tiles themselves. The fact that they have to make billions of them actually helps justify getting Grohmann involved and leveraging custom machinery for making the tiles. Glass being cheap and easy to work with and all.

Based on that, I cant find a single residential solar company that has anywhere near a $1B revenues. Solar city was the only one that I could find. How is it not bigger news that even at 20,000 roofs in 2018, Tesla could have a $1B business from thin air that has potential, if you believe the recent Seeking Alpha article, which I usually dont, of nearly $50B a year in revs by 2024. I think that is a bit high, but I could see them getting 10% of that 5 million new roofs a year and an equal amount of tradition solar installs at 1/3 the ASP. They are also going to sell a crap load of batteries with those panels, which ratchets up the ASP as well and the GM should be north of 20% and probably north of 25% if they can really automate the solar tile manufacturing and improve the installation process. I think there will some focus on how these things are installed, because roofing is a very manual process. Tile roofs are already much harder to put down then asphalt and you will probably need special blades to even cut these tiles, to the point they may need their own installers.

I know $50B doesnt put a dent into the auto industry, I think it would be an epic amount for the solar industry. Longer term, solar roofs might be the only solar because as the cells get more efficient and as the tiles get cheaper to make, and even new formats that are much cheaper, no one will want panels when they need a new roof. I am thinking more like 2025 and beyond as the glut of solar panels start to age and costs come down on solar tiles.

I've been debating so many people here and SeekingAlpha that I lost track of what you and I discussed.

Generally speaking, however, I don't think you need to all the way out to 2025 to see the impact Solar Roof will have on Tesla's bottom line.

To my surprise, there seems to be high demand for Solar Roof even at $80k+ ASP.

Sometimes, rather than saying "who would ever pay $80k for a Solar Roof?!" it's better to observe what consumers are doing.

More Tesla consumers than I originally estimated seem to be running the long-term calculation of savings from electricity generation.

Imagine what happens once Gigafactory 2 ramps up, even to 1GW/yr, bringing down the cost (to $50k ASP or less?) for Solar Roof v2/3...

 

[neroden]

There is no way in hell that the, what I think, "team" of ~10 contributors are doing all this just for the click-based payments.

There is a deeper purpose, but I don't know what it is.

No way to know if they are getting paid by a third-party to bad-mouth Tesla or if they genuinely believe Tesla should be worth less.

No way to know if they actually have short positions via stock or put options, or how big their positions are, if any.

What I do know is that there is no way in hell all that effort is just for the click-based payments.

In spite of everything, I still believe people are really good at heart, so I give them the benefit of the doubt, and think they're just misreading Tesla.

I think most of them are honest (both Paulo Santos and Anton Walhmann have some pretty weird views on other stocks too, and I really think they're just saying what they think, crazy or not).

On the other hand, the guy who shall not be named who hides his real identity, threatens anyone who corrects him in the comments to his articles, has deleted any evidence presented in the comments that he's been using false information, etc. -- there's something fundamentally dishonest going on there.