2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[geneclean55]

This could be fun

 

[GoTslaGo]

As a stockholder I am ambivalent about the GF announcements as a short term catalyst. On one hand they are necessary to continue the crazy YoY growth, but on the other hand they represent capital outlay and stretching thin. Kind of a wash. The exception would probably be the China factory, I think the markets would welcome that news. (disclaimer: factories are good for the long term. But if they announced 2-3 U.S. GF, that might be meh or negative for the stock price that day)

Yes. I think a China gf announcemt would boost SP like crazy. Imho lots of Chinese majors who are on the sidelines would likely start to buy Tesla if they do this.

 

[D-egg-O]

Regardless of the earnings results, I think over 25K S and X deliveries in Q3 would be a enough to propel the stock upward like Q1 deliveries did.

 

[larmor]

I have been wondering about the space railgun. Has anyone asked Musk whether he's thought about it? Seems right up his alley. Electricity, space launches, doesn't require inventing any new materials,...

High flying launch planes with electromagnetic railguns to launch projectiles into orbit. Now we're dreaming.

Can be hybrid with traditional rocket engine...

Market action is charging up, needs a push-- since market is pondering how tesla is going to reveal and hand over production M3s. Market forces will try to hold this down to get in before tsla launches (figuratively and literally), but won't be able to ignore the beauty of the M3.

Another FWIW, even a 3 series BMW is a great car, refined, and provides transportation, just like a 7 series, of course consumers don't generally cross shop a 3 series and a 7 series. The M3 is a totally different car which has nothing to do with MS/X other than how cool it looks...

 

[elasalle]

Regardless of the earnings results, I think over 25K S and X deliveries in Q3 would be a enough to propel the stock upward like Q1 deliveries did.

My 2c.
Due to M3 ramp up, TSLA will get a free pass this earnings season.
Ramp & M3 (design, reviews) is all that matters for now ..

 

[jhm]

If you can trigger a robot to sell (programmed stop losses are one such robot), this method generates capital. Listen carefully when he says "Take advantage of the other side" or something like that.

1. Sell enough to trigger an avalanche.
2. Buy just after the bottom.
3. Sell near the top on the rebound.

It is like a pump that prints money. The money is taken from weak holders (people with stop losses that robots control) and given to manipulators. The weak holders have to pay more to recover their positions.

A counterstrategy here is to place limit orders below the potential avalanche. This sets you up to buy at a discount when the avalanche happens. Or if enough limit orders are placed, it could slow or prevent the avalache. So either you buy at a discount or help defend the price. This is one reason why I sometimes place limit orders and post that fact online.

 

[winfield100]

i have a very newbie, options virtually zero knowledge. as a very committed long, perhaps in the 30+ year range, question
is it in my best interests to tell shorts to sell puts, the furtherst contracts out possible, such as 1/18/2019 $50 and $100 contracts to lock themselves into as massive a loss as possible, if i dimly understand? i think having 50,000+ of those would be fascinating to watch if i understand correctly, would cause a "meltup" in 17 "short" months, desiring an "ender wiggins" style 'de nou mont' conclusion to shorts.
thanks 4 any reply

 

[D-egg-O]

My 2c.
Due to M3 ramp up, TSLA will get a free pass this earnings season.
Ramp & M3 (design, reviews) is all that matters for now ..

I agree, but I think strong S and X deliveries in the middle of the Model 3 ramp will be a nice pie in the face.

 

[jhm]

I have been wondering about the space railgun. Has anyone asked Musk whether he's thought about it? Seems right up his alley. Electricity, space launches, doesn't require inventing any new materials,...

Could it mean max Q is hit at zero altitude? Could be too stressful, but I don't know much science rocketry.

 

[winfield100]

Could it mean max Q is hit at zero altitude? Could be too stressful, but I don't know much science rocketry.

from stories written about space rail guns,you need a mountain, a slope that can take advantage of the earths rotation, an enclosed tube that can take a partial vacuum for launch facilities and a lot of electricity. i think the science fiction stories i read decades ago had it located vaguely in Ecuador or perhaps Himalayas, but it's been 20+ years. there are also "beam riders" that use big honking lasers at both ends to launch to orbit and accelerate continuously @ 1g and decelerate as ground based engines.
these are both serious "what if's?"

 

[Tslynk67]

Maybe a space-elevator is more likely to happen, although last time I read about the physics behind that the cable needed to be a kilometre in diameter with current materials. Maybe with the advances in carbon recently it's more likely.

 

[Crowded Mind]

i have a very newbie, options virtually zero knowledge. as a very committed long, perhaps in the 30+ year range, question
is it in my best interests to tell shorts to sell puts, the furtherst contracts out possible, such as 1/18/2019 $50 and $100 contracts to lock themselves into as massive a loss as possible, if i dimly understand? i think having 50,000+ of those would be fascinating to watch if i understand correctly, would cause a "meltup" in 17 "short" months, desiring an "ender wiggins" style 'de nou mont' conclusion to shorts.
thanks 4 any reply

Selling a put is a bullish position. There are two different options threads if you want more details.

 

[MitchJi]

As a stockholder I am ambivalent about the GF announcements as a short term catalyst. On one hand they are necessary to continue the crazy YoY growth, but on the other hand they represent capital outlay and stretching thin. Kind of a wash. The exception would probably be the China factory, I think the markets would welcome that news. (disclaimer: factories are good for the long term. But if they announced 2-3 U.S. GF, that might be meh or negative for the stock price that day)

I didn't say that I believe that the Gigafactory announcements will have a positive impact on the SP. I believe that @EinSV 's list is a lot of positive catalysts.

But I do believe that the Gigafactory announcements could be positive. Elon said that they would be exciting. What could be exciting about Gigafactory announcements? One thing is that they have funding in place. An example could be the Norwegian sovereign fund being partners for a Gigafactory in Norway.​

 

[MitchJi]

High flying launch electric planes with electromagnetic railguns to launch projectiles into orbit. Now we're dreaming.

 

[larmor]

from stories written about space rail guns,you need a mountain, a slope that can take advantage of the earths rotation, an enclosed tube that can take a partial vacuum for launch facilities and a lot of electricity. i think the science fiction stories i read decades ago had it located vaguely in Ecuador or perhaps Himalayas, but it's been 20+ years. there are also "beam riders" that use big honking lasers at both ends to launch to orbit and accelerate continuously @ 1g and decelerate as ground based engines.
these are both serious "what if's?"

Or really just an electromagnetic assist to break the initial inertia at the start of liftoff, a so called EMALTO... TSLA putting around and won't take much to break inertia centered around 320-330.

 

[Yggdrasill]

But I do believe that the Gigafactory announcements could be positive. Elon said that they would be exciting. What could be exciting about Gigafactory announcements? One thing is that they have funding in place. An example could be the Norwegian sovereign fund being partners for a Gigafactory in Norway.

They don't really partner. The only thing they've partnered on is prime real estate, like downtown shopping centers and office buildings, where they can have very reliable rental income. The typical scheme is they buy 50% and then a local partner buys (or already owns) the other half.

Also, they don't invest in Norway. They only invest outside Norway. The whole point is to avoid driving up inflation.

 

[MitchJi]

i have a very newbie, options virtually zero knowledge. as a very committed long, perhaps in the 30+ year range, question
is it in my best interests to tell shorts to sell puts, the furtherst contracts out possible, such as 1/18/2019 $50 and $100 contracts to lock themselves into as massive a loss as possible, if i dimly understand? i think having 50,000+ of those would be fascinating to watch if i understand correctly, would cause a "meltup" in 17 "short" months, desiring an "ender wiggins" style 'de nou mont' conclusion to shorts.
thanks 4 any reply

One of my mentors used to say:

• If you like money you lose nothing.
• If you lose health you lose something.
• If you lose you love your character you lose everything.

Giving bad advice as part of an effort to make money is an excellent definition of bad character.

So IMO it's in your best interest to attempt to give everyone genuinely helpful advice.

 

[MitchJi]

They don't really partner. The only thing they've partnered on is prime real estate, like downtown shopping centers and office buildings, where they can have very reliable rental income. The typical scheme is they buy 50% and then a local partner buys (or already owns) the other half.

Also, they don't invest in Norway. They only invest outside Norway. The whole point is to avoid driving up inflation.

My point is that if the announcements reveal someone exciting that has to be either funding or size/capacity, or speed of bringing them online or? It's a pretty short list, and everything on that list is positive for the SP.

But back to my wild example it sounds like Tesla might be able to make an agreement with them if they take on additional partners, pay rent and locate it outside of Norway?

 

[Papafox]

If TSLA dips a bit more going into the close I will be buying some shares or J19 leaps for a short-term play. I see the ability of the shorts to manipulate as getting sketchy about now because without a downtrend, it is too easy to make money by anticipating the mandatory morning dip, the capping behavior, and the slow decline with low-volume afternoon trading. Of course a big down day for Macros on Monday would rain on my parade, but I suspect Monday will be a green day if today closes in the red.

 

[Yggdrasill]

My point is that if the announcements reveal someone exciting that has to be either funding or size/capacity, or speed of bringing them online or? It's a pretty short list, and everything on that list is positive for the SP.

But back to my wild example it sounds like Tesla might be able to make an agreement with them if they take on additional partners, pay rent and locate it outside of Norway?

That would be closer to something they might be on board with. But really, I think they'd be more interested once Tesla has successfully paid the rent for 10+ years.