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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Yeah, I'd be pissed if I sold to pocket a million, when I could have waited and got 2 (in €'s not $'s).

I believe that's a flawed way to think. The $1M is more than you had to start with and it's essentially 'free' money that you didn't have when you started. Be happy with the $1M rather than pissed it's not $2M - that's the difference between people who are happy in their daily lives and those that are miserable.
 
Also, it seems Elon and Straubel bought solar roofs (likely just prototypes) to goose up the solar roof revenue and make nice headlines. Anyone knows how many total solar roofs were installed in total? Isn't this what's known as "self dealing"?

No, they bought the solar roofs and Powerwalls to a) test their product in the real world and see where improvements should be made for the next iteration and b) to walk their talk. Like I'm 1000% sure Mary Barra bought herself a Bolt at full ticket price and is driving around in one every day, as she should be. :rolleyes:

Gosh, I'm not even sure why I bother correcting your passive aggressive purposeful obtuseness.
 
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Four hundred dollars or end of August, which ever comes first. That would be a ten bagger and a four bagger for us, and our crystal ball thinks that the market is going to crash in September. Right or wrong we plan to load up on June 2018's in October, and probably January 2020's in November.

Define crash please. I've seen people use words like that when a SP has moved a lousy 2%. Put a percentage to it or something quantitative please, if you would. And then how long do you believe it will take to recover from this crash? Is this a Feb 2016 crash or a 2008 crash?
 
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If any of this is crazy, someone please tell me.

It is crazy. But that doesn't make it not true. The auto industry simply waved goodbye letting Tesla run the EV race all by itself. Like OMG! What's even crazier is that GM took the publicized Model 3 spec sheet, made a car to match it, got it to market more than 6 months sooner and still got trounced by Tesla. CRAZY!
 
Define crash please. I've seen people use words like that when a SP has moved a lousy 2%. Put a percentage to it or something quantitative please, if you would. And then how long do you believe it will take to recover from this crash? Is this a Feb 2016 crash or a 2008 crash?
Debt renewal is up again. Don't think there will games this time, but who knows. Dems may also use it--I hope not. Also, probably way too soon for anything definite on the grand jury investigations. There is always a possible accident involving military games of chicken, but Mitch should weigh in on this too. Can't specify September except for debt ceiling renewal.
 
I believe that's a flawed way to think. The $1M is more than you had to start with and it's essentially 'free' money that you didn't have when you started. Be happy with the $1M rather than pissed it's not $2M - that's the difference between people who are happy in their daily lives and those that are miserable.

My 2 cents:

When you are right on something, sell S------L------O------W------L------Y. Don't take the quick $1M profit then forfeit the next $20M.

I will be among the last ones to sell my investment TSLA shares. Pretty sure at some point $8000 will be viewed as a good entry point.

Tesla's addressable market is $15 trillion. Tesla is likely to take 20~30% of that market.

For those who have the habit to buy high using margin then sell low on the way down, I think it's better to stay with index, never use margin.
 
I'll say this again because I think it's important. Just as Search is the moat around the Google castle, so is the Supercharger network around the Tesla castle.

Plus, the Supercharger network makes it really easy and convenient (and it's only getting better), to take trips. No other electric car can claim that, and without a rival network or the ability to utilize Tesla's, they never will.
It's not a moat because Tesla doesn't intend to use it as a moat. They have said that they are willing to share it with other companies.

I f someone with deep pockets wants to develop their own they could probably roll out a similar network within a couple of years. For now nobody else appears to have the vision to either develop their own or partner with Tesla, so I think their moat is vision/commitment.
 
It's not a moat because Tesla doesn't intend to use it as a moat. They have said that they are willing to share it with other companies.

I f someone with deep pockets wants to develop their own they could probably roll out a similar network within a couple of years. For now nobody else appears to have the vision to either develop their own or partner with Tesla, so I think their moat is vision/commitment.

How about a shallow moat without crocodiles.

Tesla doesn't intend to use it as a moat and has extended the technology to other car-makers, but the other car-makers have not taken them up on it. Presumably because the OEMs do not want to concede that Tesla is right and/or Tesla's system is better. The other OEMs would prefer to leave their customers without a robust DCFC network. Guess they figure Exxon will come and make it for their customers.

So while Tesla may not intend it to be their moat, the other OEMs, by refusing to adopt it, are making Tesla's supercharger network into a moat; since it is good and slowly becoming ubiquitous.
 
Define crash please. I've seen people use words like that when a SP has moved a lousy 2%. Put a percentage to it or something quantitative please, if you would. And then how long do you believe it will take to recover from this crash? Is this a Feb 2016 crash or a 2008 crash?
TSLA down to ~$310, coming back to about $380-$400 in December-February.

Based mostly on my wife's intuition, in other words definitely not an advice!
 
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Um, No. Chevy Bolt beat out Model 3 by a year. Chevy delivered 576 cars in first month of Dec 2016 to REAL end customers, not just to CEO and top execs and employees. That was already AFTER having won the COY and few other awards. For Model 3, until Tesla delivers to independent end customers, it is hard to distinguish between production and engineering validation cars.
Now the Bolt is priming for nationwide launch after winning ~40 awards.


"massive battery production": I've been asking for a while. Please quote me the GF output in quantitative terms. I'm not impressed by mere superlatives like "faster than machine gun", "massive", "blah blah", etc.

"Tesla moves faster": Yes, when Tesla releases products before it's finished testing and validation, it has got no choice. This is also a cause of heartburn, with massive confusion among customers and Tesla's own delivery and service staff. I think, parts management also becomes a lot harder with these myriad unnecessary changes that could be avoided with proper testing & validation that other car makers do before they release their cars to customers. This forum is full of complaints from people driving with old parts/seats , only to be replaced by the stuff they ordered after many months. When selling or buying an used Tesla, it is hard to figure out what one is getting because of the myriad little changes and options. This constant change of parts and pricing/options has its fair amount of downsides.
GM just posted $2.4B in profits in a shrinking US auto market. When Tesla's approach produces a fraction of that profit, I guess we could find some legitimacy in Tesla's method.

But I guess I am getting in your way of spinning this into a big positive :)

I've avoided putting mmd on ignore for a long time now as I'm very happy to read valid contrarian/bear arguments, but now I'm just tired of the trolling. I really don't know why this person posts here... Ignored!
 
I've avoided putting mmd on ignore for a long time now as I'm very happy to read valid contrarian/bear arguments, but now I'm just tired of the trolling. I really don't know why this person posts here... Ignored!

It took you this long? I did that the second I realized there was an ignore feature.

It's a fact that TMC bulls know the real bear argument better than the two trolls.
 
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Many companies never issue dividends. See Berkshire for example...

But what else is he gonna do with the money? I guess if the stock is still below $800 by 4Q18 he can start repurchasing shares... we'll see.

My primary point is: Tesla has more cash than it needs for 2H17 on its balance sheet, and it will soon start generating more cash than it can possibly spend.

Straight from the source: Tesla Investor FAQs
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There's a very long runway for future growth that they are planning on, possibly extending all the way to Mars. The moment we get a whiff of uncertainty of what they'll do with their money stash (e.g., Microsoft) is when most growth investors will bail out.
 
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