2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Krugerrand]

Channeling your inner @Zhelko Dimic ?

I have no inner Mr. Dimic. I'm just following along. We all know that the instant they get close to those margins (because when they do we'll know they've solved all their production issues with the ramp of the 3 and will be humming), they'll be onto the next thing. That's how they roll. There's less than zero chance we get dividends in any quarter in 2018. In fact, I believe the odds are far more in favor of a short squeeze (which is coming when Hell freezes over) than there is of a TSLA dividend next year. It's foolish, ridiculous talk.

 

[sunhelm]

Selling to close about $200k of long calls today.

Morning dip or down for the day?

Converting to stock or reloading on LEAPs or you got your M3 invite to configure?

 

[MitchJi]

I have no inner Mr. Dimic. I'm just following along. We all know that the instant they get close to those margins (because when they do we'll know they've solved all their production issues with the ramp of the 3 and will be humming), they'll be onto the next thing. That's how they roll. There's less than zero chance we get dividends in any quarter in 2018. In fact, I believe the odds are far more in favor of a short squeeze (which is coming when Hell freezes over) than there is of a TSLA dividend next year. It's foolish, ridiculous talk.

Ok, agree on the dividend.

But I stand by my original comment (which was intended to be a joke).

 

[Krugerrand]

It's not a moat because Tesla doesn't intend to use it as a moat. They have said that they are willing to share it with other companies.

I f someone with deep pockets wants to develop their own they could probably roll out a similar network within a couple of years. For now nobody else appears to have the vision to either develop their own or partner with Tesla, so I think their moat is vision/commitment.

This makes me scratch my head. I can't imagine that none of the OEMs know the importance of the charging network. I'm more likely to believe that at least one or two approached Tesla but didn't like the terms laid out by Elon for a partnership. Surely there's an intelligent, intuitive business person amongst that group?!?

 

[Krugerrand]

Ok, agree on the dividend.

But I stand by my original comment (which was intended to be a joke).

Yep, yep. Knew it was a joke.

 

[racer26]

This makes me scratch my head. I can't imagine that none of the OEMs know the importance of the charging network. I'm more likely to believe that at least one or two approached Tesla but didn't like the terms laid out by Elon for a partnership. Surely there's an intelligent, intuitive business person amongst that group?!?

Far as I know, Tesla's requirement for that offer is - build a car capable of accepting the full blast of the supercharger, because we can't have your slow charging thing clogging up our network, and pay for your share.

 

[Papafox]

I see the 50 day moving average at 345.50 at the moment. I see the stock dipped below 344.00 a couple times but is slightly above 345.50 now. I'm thinking we're seeing your typical mandatory morning dip by shorts with an aim at pushing TSLA below the 50 dma and putting some worry in the longs. I don't see the longs as particularly ready to get worried, though, and I wouldn't be surprised to see us close in the green today.

Edit: TSLA just went green. Now we either see a game of bop-a-mole, where the shorts push TSLA down every time it dares show green, or we see enough buying to get a small rally going. Watching this stock is always fun.

 

[Drax7]

dividends?
Tesla needs all the cash it can get to expand, why give it away in dividends.
Once capital needs subside (for Elon that is practically never ), and sales level out,
and yearly free cash flow exceeds 10% of sales, then go ahead and piss away
the money in dividends.

Model X manufacturing has now reached higher levels of efficiency, and hence the recent price reduction.
Given its the most difficult car in the world to build, how long did it take to perfect the production process ?
How long before model 3 achieves the equivalent? Certainly less i would guess.

 

[elasalle]

Shorts gonna cover going into the weekend ...?

 

[Krugerrand]

Far as I know, Tesla's requirement for that offer is - build a car capable of accepting the full blast of the supercharger, because we can't have your slow charging thing clogging up our network, and pay for your share.

Yes, along with share in the cost of building out the SuperCharger Network. Seems simple, straight forward and fair. So what's the deal? Why didn't GM do that for the Bolt? They did everything else (well, perhaps we can argue they didn't do any 'styling'). Maybe they felt they couldn't partner with Tesla because of the direct sales model? Or maybe they were just too busy gunning for the 'first to market' moniker because you know, that would be way more important.

What a bunch of bozos. The whole lot of them.

 

[MitchJi]

Converting to stock or reloading on LEAPs or you got your M3 invite to configure?

Sold about one third of our J19 $380's. Replaced with about the same total number of September 8 $350's, almost the same delta.

The plan is that we intend to pull out by the end of August (out crystal ball has a 10-20% drop in the Dow in September), if it bumps up between now and then we plan to buy some puts, then go long again before the recovery) and we think that the SP will probably increase between now and then. This move gives us the same upside between now (actually more because the gamma is higher on the shorter calls), but we will have almost $280k of cash on the sidelines (mostly dry powder).

 

[Starno]

If trump gets impeached will the market go up or down or stay about the same?

I think it would go down as investors confidence on the economic and political environment would be shaken.
But if the process is done well, then it would be only a short term fall (but still probably consequent, maybe more than 15% fall...), that would last until the replacement government gives positive vibes.

Obviously that's only guesses.

 

[SunCatcher]

Dear Shorts. In case you haven't noticed, it's time. Time to run for your lives. Don't say you haven't been warned. The Tesla Train is coming, and it will show you no mercy. Go now, and find another reason for being. Maybe next time you can aim your attack on something that is actually destructive to humanity, rather than beneficial. You know, like OIL.

Investors who bet Tesla Inc. shares would fall could be collectively out about $800 million on Thursday, after the stock rallied following the Silicon Valley car maker’s second-quarter results.

Tesla short sellers lose almost $800 million as stock rallies after earnings

 

[Waiting4M3]

If trump gets impeached will the market go up or down or stay about the same?

Yes.

 

[supratachophobia]

This makes me scratch my head. I can't imagine that none of the OEMs know the importance of the charging network. I'm more likely to believe that at least one or two approached Tesla but didn't like the terms laid out by Elon for a partnership. Surely there's an intelligent, intuitive business person amongst that group?!?

They don't want to be beholden to Tesla for the form factor and whatever restrictions they might impose now or in the future. It's still a moat because of this. Tesla controls it. And they've already been given a black eye by Tesla. Some would see their "giving in" to access the supercharger network as another black eye.

 

[Tslynk67]

Some would see their "giving in" to access the supercharger network as another black eye.

Except for those with a shred of intelligence. They would see it a laudable and logical...

 

[Starno]

Sudden jump ...

 

[racer26]

Its an unpopular idea for the other automakers because think about the optics - i sell a car to my customer that uses charging at chargers branded by my competitor? Whose products are demonstrably superior to mine?

 

[Papafox]

Sudden jump ...

Right now the game is one of who's more afraid, longs or shorts. Long's didn't blink when the mandatory morning dip took TSLA below the 50 day moving average briefly. TSLA rallied back up and now it's shorts who are worried. I think elasalle is right that some shorts will want to cover before the weekend. Remember how potent the first hour of Monday trading can be. Personally, I think it'd be crazy to short this stock after what we heard at the 2Q ER, and a few shorts have figured it out because TSLA is hinting at the direction it's heading.

I don't expect a stampede to the exits by shorts, however, and the stock usually goes no more than 2 days of trading above the upper bollinger band before ducking back under. The upper bb is at 350.50 right now, so unless there's a panic, we are more likely to see a gradual rise with the upper bb over the next few weeks.

 

[Curt Renz]

If trump gets impeached will the market go up or down or stay about the same?

I think it would go down as investors confidence on the economic and political environment would be shaken.
But if the process is done well, then it would be only a short term fall (but still probably consequent, maybe more than 15% fall...), that would last until the replacement government gives positive vibes.

Obviously that's only guesses.

The president has far less of an effect on the economy than people seem to imagine. Too many people picture him as a temporary wizard-dictator who can wave his magic wand and boost the economy. Of course presidents don't mind having the electorate think they really are omnipotent. Even the Congress and Federal Reserve are given too much credit for their economic impact. It is all of us, consumers, workers and businesses who through our collective actions have by far the greatest effect on the economy. Of course many people find it simpler to think of one person as being godlike responsible.

If impeachment and conviction occur, and there is any market drop and all, I would expect it to be minor and last quite briefly: a buying opportunity. However, I wouldn't be surprised if impeachment provides an immediate boost to the market.