2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[neroden]

Things definitely seem to be firing on all... well I guess that's a crappy metaphor.

Full steam ahead? No...
The horses have full rein? No...
Anchors aweigh? No...


Got it. "Revving up!"

 

[jbcarioca]

Would you like to retract that statement?

I thought neroden was correct. Then my phone began to show new messages with another wild day. I'm happy about this, but I also note everything else in the US I own is up despite Nasdaq and S&P being slightly down. Euphoria at Flynn plus Russian dismay? I haven't a clue, right now I'm riding the wave. I cannot help believing that the crest is happening, but no fundamental nor technical information explains this adequately for me.

 

[AlMc]

Agreed. I expect some consolidation. TSLA has had a nice run up.

Clearly you should never listen to @AlMc for short term TSLA movements.
Glad that idiot was wrong

 

[austinEV]

market taking a dump. news?

 

[racer26]

market taking a dump. news?

Flynn resigning? Dunno.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

TSLA rises every single Monday morning. This is probably amateur retail investors learning about Tesla from a friend over the weekend, watched a bunch of Elon Musk youtube videos, and deciding to buy first thing Monday morning. These new investors (as opposed to amateur retail traders) will probably not be selling for a very long time. Every Monday morning we see this. I'd be worried if I was short.

Lol that was me few years ago but I do trade a good chunk of my holdings.

 

[Lump]

market taking a dump. news?

Yellen is yapping in front of the Senate.

 

[gene]

Flynn resigning? Dunno.

Remember Watergate? This is how it began. This may be the beginning Trump's fall.

 

[kenliles]

Flynn resigning? Dunno.

Bonds are getting bashed by a hawkish Janet Yellen

 

[racer26]

Remember Watergate? This is how it began. This may be the beginning Trump's fall.

In fairness, Watergate happened before I was born... and I'm Canadian, so the intricacies of US political history are not exactly my strongest trivia subject (though I suspect I know more about US political history than most Americans do of Canadian political history).

 

[FluxCap]

Yellen is yapping in front of the Senate.

Yup. Signals point to a hike, but what the market does with her comments (and comments of other Fed members) is anyone's guess. Sometimes the market says "oh no! a rate hike because economy is booming is bad for markets!" and sometimes the market says "hooray! a rate hike means the economy is doing well which is good for markets!"

Market correlation with TSLA has varied over time, but it is always important not to just analyze TSLA as if it doesn't exist in / is affected by broader market movements.

 

[geneclean55]

Unless, there is a sell-off from this point into earnings...and after ER... then I am genuinely interested to know what shorts think they have to look forward too? A post ER dip to 265?

Oohh didn't we do well! That really stuck it to the longs!

 

[Lump]

If you want to see where rates are headed just look here Fed Watch - CME Group

Watching Fed Chairs testify in front of Congress especially tomorrow in front of House of Representatives is waist of time.

 

[racer26]

Unless, there is a sell-off from this point into earnings...and after ER... then I am genuinely interested to know what shorts think they have to look forward too? A post ER dip to 265?

Oohh didn't we do well! That really stuck it to the longs!

I just want to know what negative catalyst they think is coming to support their thesis? Right now, everything is coming up Milhouse - and the near-term catalysts are all pointing to a rosy future.

 

[geneclean55]

I just want to know what negative catalyst they think is coming to support their thesis? Right now, everything is coming up Milhouse - and the near-term catalysts are all pointing to a rosy future.

If we close out this week over 280, then many shorts have to see the writing on the wall. Not the rabid TSLA haters, but the more savvy groups.
Nobody believes Q4 is gonna be blowout, just look at the analysts numbers. All Elon has to do is give good guidance and we should be fine.
Even if it dips 20-30 bucks many many shorts will still be in the red. You got to wonder if this most recent leg of the surge was engineered to counter short-sellers.

 

[MMASSASSIN]

To be honest, if there were capital needs going into next few quarters I don't see why Elon wouldn't decide to cash in on this amazing run and tap the capital markets soon. Despite the market's complacency, I don't think macro risk has disappeared.

Agree, why risk capital this low, we have not broken all time highs yet nor has the short covering rally began.
I would expect to see capital rising north of 450 and with this short interest that will be sooner than later .

As I said Monday pre market, am expecting to see all time highs broken this week and am aggressively positioned for it with exposed 290 weekly calls.
There is no technical resistance left till 290s

 

[racer26]

If we close out this week over 280, then many shorts have to see the writing on the wall. Not the rabid TSLA haters, but the more savvy groups.
Nobody believes Q4 is gonna be blowout, just look at the analysts numbers. All Elon has to do is give good guidance and we should be fine.
Even if it dips 20-30 bucks many many shorts will still be in the red. You got to wonder if this most recent leg of the surge was engineered to counter short-sellers.

Define blowout.

I believe that 4Q will be GAAP profitable for TA/TE (ie. The part of the company that used to be Tesla Motors Inc.). SCTY will probably still show ridiculous GAAP losses because of how the old GAAP rules accounts for the PPA contracts.

I believe the slightly lower serial production of cars is balanced by the increased margins of increasing AP price, increasing destination fees, discontinuation of X60, greater mix of P100D, etc.

TE will finally contribute a non-zero number, likely large enough to offset the ZEV blowout in 3Q.

 

[geneclean55]

Define blowout.

I believe that 4Q will be GAAP profitable for TA/TE (ie. The part of the company that used to be Tesla Motors Inc.). SCTY will probably still show ridiculous GAAP losses because of how the old GAAP rules accounts for the PPA contracts.

I believe the slightly lower serial production of cars is balanced by the increased margins of increasing AP price, increasing destination fees, discontinuation of X60, greater mix of P100D, etc.

TE will finally contribute a non-zero number, likely large enough to offset the ZEV blowout in 3Q.

I mean that its not expected Q4 results fueling the SP movement. I agree that there could be good numbers for Q4. But many analysts aren't reflecting that in their numbers.

 

[racer26]

I mean that its not expected Q4 results fueling the SP movement. I agree that there could be good numbers for Q4. But many analysts aren't reflecting that in their numbers.

I agree its not 4Q results fuelling the movement.

I suspect its mostly the Model 3 rumors. If the line really is being installed and test cars built next week, that's a pretty solid indicator that there really will be Model 3's in customer hands by the end of the year.

 

[geneclean55]

I agree its not 4Q results fuelling the movement.

I suspect its mostly the Model 3 rumors. If the line really is being installed and test cars built next week, that's a pretty solid indicator that there really will be Model 3's in customer hands by the end of the year.

And the late Feb ER date, that was only made public not that long ago...seems too much of a coincidence to me. Getting ducks in a row and all that...